Brick Tamland Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 So what do folks think of the chance of seeing some storms in NC today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 So what do folks think of the chance of seeing some storms in NC today? If you lived in Fayetteville, there's a pretty good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Right now, looks like it's leaning more towards the 'scattered' vs. the 'numerous'... however it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 I'd say our chance is gone for today. Everything stays west and south of the Saluda River in upstate SC thanks to the clouds from the morning storms to our northwest. And yep there is a great chance the GSP metro stays mostly dry these next 3 afternoons.Isohomey and GSP airport , looked to have gotten rocked by that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Isohomey and GSP airport , looked to have gotten rocked by that storm! Most of the area is still dry though and GSP is hinting that tomorrow may not be much better. As for Friday, that chance of rain is GONE. Maybe something will fall around here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 grapefruit size here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 grapefruit size here today Grapefruit size what? Rocks? Only large hail showing is in Missouri. Did you move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 grapefruit size here today Don't screw around with obs in the weather threads., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 My father and I are going to be out in the plains on and off for the rest of the month for our Chasecation. We arrived in Oklahoma on May 9. We originally planned to target Alva, ok, but changed our mind and decided to head south on I-35 then to I-44 towards Lawton, ok. We then picked this storm(picture #1). We awaited on a hill a good distance from the storm looking wsw towards the wall cloud. We didn't stay in this region for too long as the Lightning was getting incredibly dangerous. One lightning bolt struck within hundreds of yards of our truck. On the way, headed east, a storm chaser waved us down notifying us that his vehicle was locked for ten minutes due to a safety feature. We picked up this individual and headed east. We floated around the hook for some time then entered into the rfd. This is where the tornado passed within 500 yards of our location at the end of its cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Our initially position the next morning was Oklahoma City, ok. We noticed that the key energy for initiation was lagging. There was also a outflow boundary draped across this region. The HRRR hinted at a few cells on I-35 south of Oklahoma City, ok. One was highlighted on the updraft helicity. We then headed down towards I-35 towards Wynnewood when we noticed a storm developing to the west. The supercell quickly developed. Next, a supercell developed on the southern end of that one. We saw a wall cloud develop rapidly. We turned around on that road to head farther east away from the hail core as we were looking sw towards the new wall cloud. Less then two minutes down the road, I looked to my left and noticed the tornado was on the ground. My jaw dropped. We took some videos and pictures until it lifted. We headed farther east. I noticed on radar that the circulation had tighten up again. We turned south on a road and was very anxious as trees were blocking the view. Boom. At the top of the hill we looked right and a beautiful stovepipe tornado. We took video and pictures. The video came out bad as it was my first time really seeing a tornado vividly. After that, we had to head south to escape the hailcore. Next, we headed into sulphur, then east up a hill. Where we saw the most amazing storm structure I have ever witnessed. Beautiful mesocyclone with a large wedge tornado underneath. There was a circulation to our right. I saw a rope drop out of it very quickly but couldn't get my camera in time before it lifted. After that, we headed east and saw the bromide, tornado. Later, we got stuck behind for too long. We missed the atoka tornado. Although, I will say we might have actually saw it out in the distance but not sure. After, we chased all the way to Hugo where we saw insane mammatus clouds. 4 tornadoes that day. EF-4,EF-3,EF-3,EF-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Wynnewood,ok and Sulpher,ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Mesocyclone with large wedge tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Mammatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2016 Author Share Posted May 12, 2016 Lucky, one of these days I am gonna do a chasecation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Lucky, one of these days I am gonna do a chasecation.... I'm down to go with and help with cost, maybe in the next year or two if you're interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2016 Author Share Posted May 12, 2016 I'm down to go with and help with cost, maybe in the next year or two if you're interested. That would work but it will be more than a few years before I can pull it off most likely. It would be fun though to do it with a group of fellow storm junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 upgrade to slight for MBY ....cloudy here now though so not sure how much we will destabilize, vis shot isnt exactly screaming sun. ..ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA THIS AFTN...POCKETS OF ENHANCED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENTWITH SRN PART OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...AND CONFLUENT SSWLYLOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTECLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS NNE INTO SERNVA TODAY. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST AND LARGELYUNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED UPDRAFTSCAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DEEP SHEAR AND ASCENT WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULDLIMIT SVR THREAT SWWD INTO GA AND NRN FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Didn't have any storms at all Wednesday when under the slight risk, but had a storm roll through last night. Funny how that works. Hope the storms miss us today so my son can finally have a baseball game. Looks like I am right on the line with the marginal and slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 So yesterday a few storm cells popped up in my area and I took a photo of this... It clearly looks like a small funnel cloud.. but heres the kicker.. The storm was moving only at 10 mph and had minimal to traces of surface wind.. Plus the storm was not severe warned at all... What do you guys think this is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Well positioned scud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 From MHX this morning: .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AMARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE BESTCHANCE WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...WITH THE MAIN THREAT STRONGWIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUTHOWEVER...ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH THE OUTERBANKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 In the bullseye for a nice cell 60mph winds reported in Siler city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Looks like Iso might see something shortly. AT 815 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELON COLLEGE... OR NEAR BURLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...MEBANE...ELON COLLEGE...GIBSONVILLE...HAW RIVER... SWEPSONVILLE...ALAMANCE...LAKE MACKINTOSH MARINA AND CANE CREEK RESERVOIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Looks like Iso might see something shortly. AT 815 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELON COLLEGE... OR NEAR BURLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...MEBANE...ELON COLLEGE...GIBSONVILLE...HAW RIVER... SWEPSONVILLE...ALAMANCE...LAKE MACKINTOSH MARINA AND CANE CREEK RESERVOIR. nice storm... some pea hail and gusty winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016VALID 051200Z - 061200Z...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN VA...ERNNC...THE DELMARVA...FAR SERN PA AND NJ......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL PA TO NEW YORK CITYAND SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATESEXCLUDING NEW ENGLAND......SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL...A FEW TORNADOESAND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE STORMSARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THESOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN NEW YORK....SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEYNEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING ACROSSSRN ONTARIO. A WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THELOW...ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL NY INTO PA AND SWWD ALONG THE LEE OF THEAPPALACHIANS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. WITH STRENGTHENING SLY SFCFLOW...MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR NAS ERN PA AND NJ...SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERESTORMS GIVEN AMPLE LIFT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS THE SHORTWAVETROUGH APPROACHES....MID ATLANTIC REGION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COUNTERACT RELATIVELY WARMTEMPERATURES ALOFT AND YIELD AROUND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPEACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR PROFILES AREEXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVETROUGH APPROACHES. MEAN FLOW OF 40-50 KT IN THE 850-500 LAYER WITHINCREASING SPEED SHEAR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LONGHODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEWSUPERCELLS. GRADUALLY VEERING 850 MB FLOW AND THE ABSENCE OF ASURGING COLD FRONT SUGGEST SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODEDURING THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS MERGING OF CELLS LATER IN THE EVENINGAS STORMS EXIT THE COAST. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOESWILL BE POSSIBLE....NERN GULF COAST INTO SWRN GA...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN GA/AL SUNDAYAFTERNOON...ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFTASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAINOVER THE AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. EARLY RAINAND STORMS MAY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION...BUT POCKETS OF HEATINGSHOULD YIELD NEW DEVELOPMENT OR A REJUVENATION OF EXISTING ACTIVITYFROM GA INTO AL AND INTO NRN FL DURING THE DAY. MARGINALLY SEVEREHAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE...JEWELL.. 06/03/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Mike Maze from WRAL said we could be in a moderate risk by the time we get to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 Mike Maze from WRAL said we could be in a moderate risk by the time we get to Sunday. If the timing speeds up and there is not a lot of trash around in the morning then maybe.....right now the models have the line hitting 7pm and later that would make me lean towards less severe, if its 6 hrs faster then central and eastern NC could get hammered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 RAH showed three rounds of storms in their briefing today starting in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 RAH showed three rounds of storms in their briefing today starting in the morning. Will probably turn into morning showers, followed by debris clouds, followed by clearing around 4, followed by a broken line of around 20-30% coverage of thundershowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Will probably turn into morning showers, followed by debris clouds, followed by clearing around 4, followed by a broken line of around 20-30% coverage of thundershowers.Shetley , is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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