mackerel_sky Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Sun has been out here since 10. No storms in sight , downslope, FTL ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Sun has been coming in and out. I don't think it's going to be enough for any storms here. Just too cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 The lack of lift right now is what is killing these small thunderstorms in WNC. Need some strong lift to get the ball rolling. Cape slowly climbing to 1500 across Western and Central NC I wont be surprised to see 2000 cape in some areas with 50knt shear as well..... Just missing the catalyst right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...WRN AND CNTRL NC...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 031757Z - 032030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NRN SC NWD INTO SRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL VA SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL NC INTO NWRN SC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN NC AND NRN SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SC AND WCNTRL NC WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN VA...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Mize Maze from WRAL said on Facebook it looks like the atmosphere is recovering...storms to the west should move in late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Mize Maze from WRAL said on Facebook it looks like the atmosphere is recovering...storms to the west should move in late this afternoon.The sky has healed! Where's Wilkesdud when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Starting to see more blue sky around the state art museum in Raleigh, NC. Temps still around 73 with a heat index of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Lots of sun in Raleigh on Capital near 540. Temp is up to 78. Have to see if anything happens the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 250 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...ALONG WITH SOME CELL MERGERS AND LINE SEGMENT DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 Looks like the leeside trough is firing , the sun getting out in central and eastern NC should just be enough to keep it going as it heads east.....scape of 1500 and mcape of 1000 should be plenty with 40-50 knts of shear....not sure we see severe here in the east its just now getting good and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Looks like the leeside trough is firing , the sun getting out in central and eastern NC should just be enough to keep it going as it heads east.....scape of 1500 and mcape of 1000 should be plenty with 40-50 knts of shear....not sure we see severe hear in the east its just now getting good and sunny Yepp that line is knitting together nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 WRAL Mike Maze 4 mins · Here's what the radar looks like before the start of our 4PM news. Our cold front is moving through the Foothills and ahead of it some showers and storms have formed. Since we had all that cloud cover and rain this morning, the atmosphere has recovered some and has become unstable but it may not be enough to develop thunderstorms on a widespread basis like yesterday afternoon. I will be cautiously optimistic and say the activity may not affect as many areas as what we saw on Monday. The threat will end by mid-evening but still should be some showers through at least midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 445pm. The storm is moving to the east around 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 So our Southern Friends don't feel neglected... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM FLORIDA ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 The short term models are showing a pretty stout line of convection coming into NGa, and western Carolinas , at around 6 pm tomorrow. We will see what happens! Thursday and Fridays weather, looks luscious temp wise! Should feel like early April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 Some stout supercells out there this afternoon....wind damage and hail reports starting to pop up....Triangle getting nailed at rush hr that's gotta be fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Downtown Raleigh severe warned, but it looks like the hail core is going to miss us just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 610pm...Multiple reports of quarter size hail in the Cary/Apex area. Pea to dime sized hail near Tryon & Avent Ferry Rds. in SW Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Rotating wall cloud south of Raleigh, NC, just east of Holly Springs #ncwx @nsj @LeeRingerWx @BestStormPics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Further East... < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / NERN AND ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 032158Z - 032300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS /50-65 MPH/ WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1006-MB LOW NEAR RIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE WRN PART OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CAPE FEAR NWD INTO SERN VA WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AMIDST MID 70S TEMPS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS PORTION OF NC/VA HAS BEEN LARGELY VOID OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BUBBLING CU FIELD. AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PIVOT TOWARDS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THIS REGION OVER ERN NC/SERN VA HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORM ACTIVITY PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE REGION. ..SMITH/HART.. 05/03/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Pea sized hail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Outflow boundaries from the N & S about to collide over Harnett Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Anyone see any kind of rotation on that Clayton cell? I was out taking a few pics, and suddenly a layer of very low clouds started rapidly heading in from the SE, while the main cloud motion was from the WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Anyone see any kind of rotation on that Clayton cell? I was out taking a few pics, and suddenly a layer of very low clouds started rapidly heading in from the SE, while the main cloud motion was from the WNW. Looks like it went just north of my house. I'm still in downtown. Raleigh, not Wilkesboro. Two hails in two days. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 Not really any organized rotation but when it went over the radar it had some serious wind right off the deck. It also has one heck of a hail core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Up to penny sized hail with the storm behind the 'big' storm. 1.03" in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Nickle sized hail here and what I estimate to be 40-50mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 No real wind with this storm so far ( same one that formed west of Greensboro like 5 hrs ago) but the lightning is flat out ridiculous. Would not be surprised to see some reports of house fires this thing is putting em down. Second cell firing behind it went from nothing to monster hail core might get hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 Nickle sized hail here and what I estimate to be 40-50mph gusts. That storm popped up out of nowhere really Nexrad shows 2.25" hail possible with it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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