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2016 Severe Weather Thread


downeastnc

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Concerning Sat threat 

 

RAH 

 

IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH/ARRIVAL OF THE EXIT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFTING
UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION
FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING AT THE WARMING AND MOISTENING WARM NOSE ATOP
THE WEDGE...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD BY EARLY EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY/TRIPLE POINT LOW THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED
NEAR OR IN THE WARMING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FROM THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. ASSOCIATED
FORECAST SHERB-E VALUES NEAR (OR MINIMALLY EXCEED ONE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NC) DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
RISK OF MINI-SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THERE. WHILE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
EARLY SUN MORNING...THE SEVERE RISK WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LLJ PASSES AND ASSOCIATED FLOW VEERS.

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SPC 

 

...PORTIONS SC COASTAL PLAIN TO HAMPTON ROADS REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS -- SOME POSSIBLY SFC-BASED -- MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS
AREA TONIGHT...OFFERING CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...
ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR AND A TORNADO. THIS WILL DEVELOP AMIDST
STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR...WEAK MUCINH...AND RAPID ONSET OF 50-60-KT
LLJ THAT WILL ENLARGE 0-3-KM HODOGRAPHS GREATLY IN SUPPORT OF AT
LEAST MRGL SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL.


SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN VARIOUS OPERATIONAL PROGS --
E.G. NAM VS. SPECTRAL -- AS WELL AS BETWEEN ARW AND NMM-B MEMBERS OF
SREF PACKAGE -- REGARDING EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PREFRONTAL/SFC-
BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THIS
DISCREPANCY APPEARS TO RELATE TO MESOSCALE DISPARITIES IN BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FIELDS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EACH OF WHICH IS TIED IN
TURN TO GEOMETRY AND GEOGRAPHY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND SWATHS ON
EITHER SIDE OF COASTLINE. FCST SOUNDINGS OF MOST AGGRESSIVE PROGS
REGARDING BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION...SPECIFICALLY NAM AND
MANY ARW MEMBERS...WOULD SUPPORT SOME TORNADO AND WIND RISK
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. OTHERS SHUNT THREAT LARGELY OFFSHORE WHERE
GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP NONETHELESS...ATOP MARINE HEAT/
MOISTURE FLUXES ASSOCIATED WITH GULF STREAM. NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER
AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPARENT IN THOSE FCST
SOUNDINGS...THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED ABOVE SFC EVEN IN THAT
SCENARIO...ALONG WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED/MRGL WIND/HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES UNTIL MORE UNCONDITIONAL
CERTAINTY IS APPARENT REGARDING LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND TSTM
COVERAGE.

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Full sunshine right now here in Jville, warming up quite nicely maybe it'll help our chances later on. I know its a folklore but a couple weeks ago we had a nasty thunderstorm and then it snowed the next week... lol

 

It all depends on the warm front, you guys along the coast will have a much better shot at storms I think, still 50 and wedged in here, if the warm front moves fast enough and we manage low to to mid 60's with some sunshine then eastern NC could see some rotating cells later this afternoon, still these setups are always hit and miss.....at the least there should be some nasty storms just offshore that could bring in a waterspout etc...

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1225 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING

STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST

OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVENING AS AN OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW MOVES

INLAND AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 7

PM THIS EVENING AND 2 AM TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS CUMBERLAND...

SAMPSON...WAYNE...WILSON...AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED

WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A

STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OF THIS

MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY

RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091941Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE SPREADING TOWARD AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND MAY REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME. AREAL COVERAGE/EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH PROBABLY IS NOT
NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INCREASED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IN THE UPCOMING
20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INLAND.

THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT...PERHAPS WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY, THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS THAT MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW TO
AROUND 30 KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION
THOUGH EARLY EVENING. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL
BE MUCH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DEEPENING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO COASTAL AREAS. BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
RISK WILL INCREASE FOR SUPERCELLS SPREADING INLAND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

 

post-154-0-03192900-1452369354_thumb.gif

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Yeah that one big cell west of Tampa Bay had a hell of a couplet on it 20 mins ago....its weaker now but still there if it holds up and produces off an on it could be a big deal as it looks to go right into the Tampa Bay metro area.....then there are several cells that oculd impact the Cape Coral/Naples area as well....

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Yeah that one big cell west of Tampa Bay had a hell of a couplet on it 20 mins ago....its weaker now but still there if it holds up and produces off an on it could be a big deal as it looks to go right into the Tampa Bay metro area.....then there are several cells that oculd impact the Cape Coral/Naples area as well....

It still seems to be showing a decent couplet

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SPC has increased the Tampa Bay area to a slight risk----

 

.FL GULF COAST FROM N OF TAMPA TO FT. MEYERS...
RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE
INTRODUCTION OF A SLGT RISK ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE FL GULF COAST.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF...COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY WHILE
SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF A ACCELERATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE N-CNTRL GULF COAST...AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT ALONG A
RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM SWRN FL NWWD INTO THE NERN GULF SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME HAIL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF VIGOROUS STORMS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SUN COAST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM SRQ SOUTH TO FMY WHERE A NARROW
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY MOVE ACROSS THIS
AREA SOUTH OF TAMPA BY EARLY EVENING. SEE MCD #14 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS AND WATCH POTENTIAL.

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It was likely producing a few frames ago and has weakened again cant seem to maintain a strong couplet for more than a few frames which bodes well for the Tampa Bay area.....it kind of merged with a smaller southern cell so we could see a new area spin up more headed towards the Bradenton/Sarasota side of the bay.

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That sure was a late AFD issuance out of RAH...

AS OF 430 PM SATURDAY...TONIGHT: ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGEFROM CAPE FEAR TO THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 21-03Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOWBACKS/STRENGTHENS ATOP THE WEDGE...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVELIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY. ANARROW SPATIO-TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL EXIST INTHE 01-07Z TIMEFRAME AS A MESOSCALE SFC LOW (MAINTAINED BY DPVA/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT) TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC AND ADVECTS ARICHER THETA-E AIRMASS INLAND BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES(ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM). GIVEN POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THAT THESTRONGEST DPVA WILL BE DISPLACED WEST (THOUGH NOT TOO FAR) OVEREASTERN TN/KY...AND THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITHREGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT-LIVED WARM SECTOR...CONFIDENCEREMAINS LOW W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE CONVECTION WILLDEVELOP. IF ONE ASSUMES THE WARM SECTOR WILL PENETRATE INLAND TOSAMPSON/WAYNE/WILSON COUNTIES...A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ANISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE PRESENT IN ASSOC/W DEEP CONVECTION. LOWSTONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FUNCTION OF COLD ADVECTION AS THESYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THEPIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50SSOUTHEAST. -VINCENT&&
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Apparently one confirmed down in FL

 

 

SW Cape Coral [Lee Co, FL] EMERGENCY MNGR reports TORNADO at 9 Jan, 6:45 PM EST -- EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AS WELL AS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES. LOCATED IN SW CAPE CORAL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CHIQUITA BLVD S AND BEACH PKWY W TO NEAR MOHWAK PKWY AND SKYLINE BLVD. TIME APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 2345 AND 2356 UTC.

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419 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 01/09/16 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...SATURDAY AFTERNOON STARTED OUT WITH A LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE ALABAMA WITH A WARM FRONT

EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FORT MYERS AREA WAS IN

THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE

AIR THAT INTERACTED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT

BROUGHT THE STORMS IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.CAPE CORAL TORNADO...

RATING: EF-2

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 132 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.4 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 182 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 3

START DATE: JAN 9 2016

START TIME: 645 PM EST

START LOCATION: 12 WSW FORT MYERS / LEE COUNTY / FL

START LAT/LON: 26.570 / -82.037

END DATE: JAN 9 2016

END TIME: 652 PM EST

END LOCATION: 8 WSW FORT MYERS / LEE COUNTY / FL

END_LAT/LON: 26.575 / -81.983

THERE WAS DAMAGE TO 178 STRUCTURES. ONE HOME WAS DESTROYED...

14 HAD MAJOR DAMAGE...AND 163 HOMES HAD MINOR DAMAGE. REPORTS

OF OVER 100 POWER POLES DOWN.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL

311 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

 

FLC081-115-170830-

/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160117T0830Z/

SARASOTA FL-MANATEE FL-

311 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EST FOR

NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTIES...

    

AT 310 AM EST...A DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SIESTA KEY...OR

JUST SOUTHWEST OF SARASOTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY 

         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES 

         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO 

         HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE 

         DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. 

 

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  SOUTH GATE RIDGE AROUND 315 AM EST.

  SARASOTA...SARASOTA SPRINGS...SOUTHGATE...LAKE SARASOTA...NORTH

SARASOTA AND SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRPORT AROUND 320 AM EST.

  THE MEADOWS AND KENSINGTON PARK AROUND 325 AM EST.

  LAKEWOOD RANCH AROUND 330 AM EST.

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GATOR

CREEK ESTATE...VAMO...BEE RIDGE...FRUITVILLE...OSPREY...HIDDEN

RIVER...OSCAR SCHERER STATE PARK...SAMOSET...DESOTO LAKES AND ONECO.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO

AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...

MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM

FLYING DEBRIS.

 

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT

WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

 

&&

 

LAT...LON 2732 8258 2733 8256 2728 8254 2733 8253

      2740 8257 2741 8259 2754 8251 2741 8224

      2726 8217 2714 8246 2723 8251 2725 8253

      2721 8252 2735 8263 2736 8261

TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 217DEG 34KT 2726 8254 

 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

HAIL...<.75IN

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