ON THE JAN 17-18 THREAT

[DTWXRISK]

FIRST   a comment about  JAN 11-12   Low/ busted forecasted  ...I couLD  do a JB   thing   AND   "say well I got the pattern    right ...    But I wont.   That forecast was  based on    key assumption    that the  Jan 11-12   arctic cold front  --which we all  can now see  IS coming ... would arrive  FIRST  before the Low  over  AL  developed .    The early development of LOW   killed that whole idea

 

OK on this  event...  The KEYS  to this threat   are
 

1)  the  severe -AO and   historic  -NAO ( -4sd)   that is going to develop

 

2)  the   New England  clipper Low JAN 13-14   gets  trapped by the block  and becomes a massive 50/ 50 Low or  the PV

 

3) the   SPLIT  flow  pattern  and the  strong  short wave over southern   Calif 

 

   ANY MODEL  solution   that   has the  50/50 Low  and/ or  PV in se  Canada  and the Huge  massive -NAO and   Strong -AO  but takes the LOW Inland  (such as  an  Ohio valley  or Appalachian track)  is   simply  meteorologically impossible.  

 

That  being  the case... if the  18z GFS  and 12Z high ECMWF  parallel Model are  overdoing 

the   50/50 Low  then   things    will be very different 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

I am sure models will. .flip flop. .many times. .let's see where we are at by Tuesday 12Z suite ..but very interested that at least for now something to discuss

[Brian5671]

Great post!  Any chance there is too much blocking and NYC north gets the shaft ala Feb '10?

[wthrmn654]

Interesting to see many models showing some sort of storm at that timeframe. Each planning the storm in different locations.

[SnoSki14]

Great post! Any chance there is too much blocking and NYC north gets the shaft ala Feb '10?

I think we'd rather take our chances with more blocking and 09/10 had an extremely severe -NAO. This should benefit as more if we do see a 09/10 style pattern but a bit further north.