DTWXRISK Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 first a comment about JAN 11-12 Low/ busted forecasted ...I could do a JB thing say "well I got the pattern "but but I wont do that. I bustedThat forecast was based on key assumption that the Jan 11-12 arctic cold front ( which we all now see) IS coming ... would arrive FIRST before the Low over AL developed . The early development of LOW killed that whole idea OK on this event... The KEYS to this threat are 1) the severe -AO and historic -NAO ( -4sd) that is going to develop 2) the New England clipper Low JAN 13-14 gets trapped by the block and becomes a massive 50/ 50 Low or the PV 3) the SPLIT flow pattern and the strong short wave over southern Calif ANY MODEL solution that has the 50/50 Low and/ or PV in se Canada and the Huge massive -NAO and Strong -AO but takes the LOW Inland (such as an Ohio valley or Appalachain track) is simply meteorologically impossible. That being the case... if the 18z GFS and 12Z high ECMWF parallel Model are overdoing the 50/50 Low then things will be very different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuck in cali Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 it will likely snow somewhere along the east coast at some point in the heart of winter if you keep calling for it, eventually you can say ur right i'd say the shorter term story will be more ice than snow. think 98 you've got anomalous ssts, and if you have a torchy southern stream run into a marginal airmass, more likely cold rain then ice as the true polar air moves in behind the departing low. could be some historic ice storms this year snow sweet spot for the east will be feb 7-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 delusional it will likely snow somewhere along the east coast at some point in the heart of winterif you keep calling for it, eventually you can say ur righti'd say the shorter term story will be more ice than snow. think 98you've got anomalous ssts, and if you have a torchy southern stream run into a marginal airmass, more likely cold rain then ice as the true polar air moves in behind the departing low. could be some historic ice storms this yearsnow sweet spot for the east will be feb 7-21image.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Take a look at the f**king euro dt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Take a look at the f**king euro dt Yep, man o man what a run. Numerous opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 things are looking much less Promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18z went out to sea, I think the 00z GFS will go up north a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 18z went out to sea, I think the 00z GFS will go up north a little more. No it didn't. It will a little eventually. They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You're over thinking things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There might be a chance. Soundings are like 33-34 at the surface with the NAM on the peninsula.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=018ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_018_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160117+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snowing but not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 starting to stick a little now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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