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Low topped thunderstorm potential 1/10/16


weatherwiz

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Downeast ME gets hit the hardest on the euro. Gusts to 50-60 as LLJ intensifies over E SNE. Euro popping 60-72 gusts over DE Maine Seacoast. 

 

All rain amounts below 2" in SNE per Euro.
 
LLJ doesn't mature until east of SNE. I would bet gusts 35-50mph on euro verbatim.

 

 

Just running through Bufkit soundings, and the "weakest" winds it mixes down at RKD is nearly 55 knots from the SREF mean. Everything else is 60+.

 

The typically conservative NAM (models inversions a little better) nearly mixes down 65 knots (GFS was 70), but it has a 90 knot LLJ down to around 2500 feet!

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Just running through Bufkit soundings, and the "weakest" winds it mixes down at RKD is nearly 55 knots from the SREF mean. Everything else is 60+.

The typically conservative NAM (models inversions a little better) nearly mixes down 65 knots (GFS was 70), but it has a 90 knot LLJ down to around 2500 feet!

Portland area and GOM have been ground zero for a couple of days
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- IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1058 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN NEW LONDON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EST

* AT 1056 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR FISHERS ISLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GROTON...MYSTIC...WESTERLY...LEDYARD...GRISWOLD...PRESTON...

VOLUNTOWN...NORWICH--NEW LONDON...NORTH STONINGTON...POQUONOCK

BRIDGE AND PAWCATUCK.

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Usually get hit pretty hard during these strong LLJ wind events with downsloping SE flow.

Not too bad really, maybe some gusts to mid 30s MPH. Not nearly as bad as some of the other similar setups over the past year.

 

Still time for you. Most models I looked at had the LLJ best positioned for VT around now through 18z.

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Only .85" down the hill from you. Looks like heaviest is done. 43F.

 

I was wondering how you were doing--typically you get more rain than up here.  Maybe I can chalk this one up.....

 

 

Other than ISP gusting to 60, pretty meh winds with this one. Underperformer so far anyway

 

Only an under-performer if you over-anticipated.  These events always, always suck in the wind department.

 

43.6*

1.14"

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I was wondering how you were doing--typically you get more rain than up here. Maybe I can chalk this one up.....

Only an under-performer if you over-anticipated. These events always, always suck in the wind department.

43.6*

1.14"

No usually they Rock pretty good in the warm sector which your area never gets into. But this one was meh and was expected to be meh
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