weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not bad for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Pretty confident we are going to see some sort of broken low topped line tomorrow push through SNE coming from the SW. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a SVR or two tomorrow. Not sure about a SVR, but some of the mesos like thunder to the NH border even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I did note the NCAR ensemble max wind for tomorrow. Looks like a big bag of meh... except those units are in m/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not sure about a SVR, but some of the mesos like thunder to the NH border even. It actually looks like the "best" instability arrives right along with the nose of the MLJ. Typically I feel like sometimes the two arrive out of sync so hopefully the models are correct with this. I'm not too high on any big wind gusts tomorrow. I think perhaps the south coast may have a chance for a warning or so if any cores are decent enough given the winds aloft. I'm going to look at some bufkit soundings but looking at cod the GFS had a 100 J/KG contour of SBcape pushing through which wouldn't be too shabby. I think highest gusts we would see would be in the 40-50 mph range...very small shot at a 50-60 mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It actually looks like the "best" instability arrives right along with the nose of the MLJ. Typically I feel like sometimes the two arrive out of sync so hopefully the models are correct with this. I'm not too high on any big wind gusts tomorrow. I think perhaps the south coast may have a chance for a warning or so if any cores are decent enough given the winds aloft. I'm going to look at some bufkit soundings but looking at cod the GFS had a 100 J/KG contour of SBcape pushing through which wouldn't be too shabby. I think highest gusts we would see would be in the 40-50 mph range...very small shot at a 50-60 mph gust I'll say, looks like BTV will have some decent wind reports with the SE downslope winds. That's a pretty large area of modeled ensemble mean 50 knotters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'll say, looks like BTV will have some decent wind reports with the SE downslope winds. That's a pretty large area of modeled ensemble mean 50 knotters. Its a pretty interesting setup for January only b/c of the warm sector involved. It can be real tough to get those 50's temps/dews to advect far into the region this time of year. PWATS of just over 1'' are pretty crazy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Its a pretty interesting setup for January only b/c of the warm sector involved. It can be real tough to get those 50's temps/dews to advect far into the region this time of year. PWATS of just over 1'' are pretty crazy too Easily over 2 SD for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Easily over 2 SD for our area. Flash flooding probably biggest concern of anything tomorrow with heavy rains and frozen ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I did note the NCAR ensemble max wind for tomorrow. Looks like a big bag of meh... except those units are in m/s hmwind_max_f045_NE.png Nice tiny patch of green #2 over Winnipesaukee. If my math is right, I'll gladly take some gusts to 44.7387 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Nice tiny patch of green #2 over Winnipesaukee. If my math is right, I'll gladly take some gusts to 44.7387 mph Maybe you can get a rogue downsloper off Gunstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Easily over 2 SD for our area. Lollis to 4" in the Whites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lollis to 4" in the Whites? rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_17.png I mean this is a true low LLJ (NAM Bufkit 60 knots at 2200 feet), so if any set up could squeeze it out this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I mean this is a true low LLJ (NAM Bufkit 60 knots at 2200 feet), so if any set up could squeeze it out this would be it. Yeah the orographics look to be enhanced both upslope and downslope with this one. I think there's going to be some good winds in the downslope regions. The Vermont spots that are favored will do quite well. I don't hear about it much in NH, but you guys must high high-wind warning in these set-ups downslope of the Whites, no? Or is it not as concentrated being a cluster of mountains as opposed to a Spine where you can really get the pressure to build up between the CAD on the east side and warmth on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yeah the orographics look to be enhanced both upslope and downslope with this one. I think there's going to be some good winds in the downslope regions. The Vermont spots that are favored will do quite well. I don't hear about it much in NH, but you guys must high high-wind warning in these set-ups downslope of the Whites, no? Or is it not as concentrated being a cluster of mountains as opposed to a Spine where you can really get the pressure to build up between the CAD on the east side and warmth on the west side. Oh I think we do, I just don't know how much we hear about it. I definitely don't think it's as pronounced as the Greens, but I think it happens, maybe even as far south as Sullivan County, NH. I wouldn't be surprised if the Eastern Townships had a decent history of downslope windstorms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HIE gets some real good downslope winds. That setup is a disaster for those ski areas. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HIE gets some real good downslope winds. That setup is a disaster for those ski areas. Yikes. HIE is like a black hole for wind, it's nearly always calm. Yet it will gust 30 knots in these set ups. So somewhere must be seeing 50 knot gusts nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HIE is like a black hole for wind, it's nearly always calm. Yet it will gust 30 knots in these set ups. So somewhere must be seeing 50 knot gusts nearby. I remember that area getting some real good SE winds. Maybe not HIE specifically, but the area just NW of the whites maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I remember that area getting some real good SE winds. Maybe not HIE specifically, but the area just NW of the whites maybe. I mean typically we can keep HIE VFR in a good SE flow, while the rest of our terminals are socked in at LIFR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I mean typically we can keep HIE VFR in a good SE flow, while the rest of our terminals are socked in at LIFR. At least they get microbursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like a robust low-level jet will rake coastal/Downeast Maine Sunday night. Some guidance, including 12z Euro, suggesting 10m winds could gust to 70 mph. I wouldn't be surprised if wording in the high wind and storm warnings is ramped up with later packages. Anyway, solid agreement with the models showing an 80+ knot LLJ impacting the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 4k NAM cranks that 900mb jet over E SNE rather than over GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I don't know. I think we'll be under an intensifying LLJ but best goods will be ME. Probably could drop HWW for some places further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Oh I think we do, I just don't know how much we hear about it. I definitely don't think it's as pronounced as the Greens, but I think it happens, maybe even as far south as Sullivan County, NH. I wouldn't be surprised if the Eastern Townships had a decent history of downslope windstorms too. Yeah true, the western slopes here are like Burlington suburbs, where as in your CWA it certainly isn't suburbs, haha. I just also noticed looking at that RGEM map I posted, how it has like 4" of QPF and then mere miles NW of that its showing under a half inch. That's quite the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Of course this one will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 I am shocked (well maybe not b/c its the NAM) at how much instability the NAM has pushing in late afternoon. The GFS isn't as impressive but still relatively decent for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Downeast ME gets hit the hardest on the euro. Gusts to 50-60 as LLJ intensifies over E SNE. Euro popping 60-72 gusts over DE Maine Seacoast. All rain amounts below 2" in SNE per Euro. LLJ doesn't mature until east of SNE. I would bet gusts 35-50mph on euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looking at the radar now close to 8am... Euro should definitely be incorrect with rain totaling below 2". Several places in SNE should be able to hit that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Anyone waking up should be looking just offshore of the Mid Atlantic for a line to develop when the LLJ strengthens this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I like the 4-6pm timeframe for the Cape and Islands for high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Breezy with light rain. Occasional moderate. 37.1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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