weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 A highly unseasonable warm/moist airmass will surge into southern New England on Sunday as an area of low pressure tracking well to the west will allow for a warm front to slowly push through the region. South of the warm front temperatures will climb well into the 50's with dewpoints not too far behind! As typical with storm systems this time of year we will be dealing with some pretty impressive dynamics aloft with computer forecast models showing a MLJ streak of about 80 knots arriving into the region from the SW during the early afternoon hours of Sunday. This will set the stage for a period of rather intense mid-level lifting. The biggest question is how much instability will we be able to generate? Computer forecast models all suggest a surge of some weak elevated/sfc instability arriving south of the warm front with LI values nearing 0, TT's nearing 50, and the SI nearing 0. The NAM even has some MUcape moving overhead as well. Outside of some torrential downpours (with some areas perhaps getting 2-3'' of rain), there will be potential for some thunder/lighting and perhaps some gusty winds drawn down depending on the degree of instability that can move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I mentioned late last summer we'd see more of these threads from Wiz than snow threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I mentioned late last summer we'd see more of these threads from Wiz than snow threads this would be a great way to kick off the New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 this would be a great way to kick off the New Year In may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Maybe winds gust to 45 as the line comes thru. Too much inversion for much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Noyes has 55-60 mph gusts Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Noyes has 55-60 mph gusts Sunday lol There is actually a very small window where someone could see gusts as strong. The degree of WAA within the warm sector is quite impressive for this time of the year. Typically we don't see such strong WAA occurring all the way down to the sfc but in this case we are and this is helping to limit any inversion. In fact, we may only be dealing with a subtle inversion. Even a subtle inversion, however, will prevent much of the winds from mixing down but any convective elements get involved and its a different story. Late overnight Sunday/Monday looks pretty gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM surface gusts are in the 90-100mph range over ACK and the Outer Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think there is a very high likelihood of a mid level low topped weenie in the vicinity of Wiz' apartment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Lol Ray, 90mph wind gusts over Nantucket and Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If I was Jimmy, is be more excited about this than any snow chances next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM surface gusts are in the 90-100mph range over ACK and the Outer Cape What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What? Stop picking on him and criticizing his enthusiasm. Cyber bully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Stop picking on him and criticizing his enthusiasm. Cyber bully. Maybe he means Mount Washington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Maybe he means Mount Washington? Or the top of the sandcastle that he made with Brian on weenie beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 We aren't really looking at anything crazy wind wise...most gusts probably in the 35-45 mpg range at most. There could be a few gusts in the 50-60 mph range if any convective elements get involved. Only way we would see anything higher than 60 mph gusts is if we were to get some stronger convection. At this time it doesn't look like we'll see sufficient enough instability to get convection that strong but sometimes we see a strong cell or two impact the south coast so maybe someone there can get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I was looking at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Scott looking for a troposphere fold where do you look for evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 James, There won't be one, and there probably won't be more than a 45kt gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 maybe in a waterspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Scott looking for a troposphere fold where do you look for evidence? At the bottom of a rum bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 At the bottom of a rum bottle. You might be better served using that method. Seriously, it's not easy finding model output on the web that is useful for trop information. UAlbany might be the only site I know that does dynamic trop plots. AWIPS FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Too bad there isn't more instability for you Wiz. 12z NAM forecast sounding for BDL at 18z Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Scott because of the low level inversion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Scott because of the low level inversion? These almost always under perform because the high winds struggle to mix down. Some high wind warnings up out north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HWW out in Se NE Congrats Scooter and James on losing your roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HWW out in Se NE Congrats Scooter and James on losing your roof It's actually eastern areas into ME. Meh. LLJ is good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's actually eastern areas into ME. Meh. LLJ is good though. I know but your area south is SE new England. Though I see they extended it north up thru BOS. Should see some nice 60MPH gusts. jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Pretty confident we are going to see some sort of broken low topped line tomorrow push through SNE coming from the SW. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a SVR or two tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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