Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEFS is quite active d8-15. Looping h5 you can see 3 distinct pac waves cross the country and the same active look at the end of the run. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not to be evil - but didn't the Carolinas cash in big time in '72-'73 with a suppressed storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hugely. To the tune of 20+ inches in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEFS is quite active d8-15. Looping h5 you can see 3 distinct pac waves cross the country and the same active look at the end of the run. Good times. Yeah my growing inkiling is that we're opening into a longer window ahead rather a short one. Still not sold on the clipper business but the "Wes storm" seems like just the start of a sustained volley at least potentially. I do think the looks at range are fairly supportive of suppression but weeklies were wet the Jan 25-Feb 1 period and quite wet offshore the week prior so it's hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not to be evil - but didn't the Carolinas cash in big time in '72-'73 with a suppressed storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes there was a blizzard in SC in Feb. http://www.americanwx.com/models/raleighwx/studies/feb73.html I feel like there was at least one more sizable event that targeted NC more but maybe I have the year confused. Feb was cold and suppressed here for the most part. should note that pattern was very different tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just catching up here. Exciting times ahead! One thing seems to be almost certain though. If the DMV is going for above average snowfall this winter, we won't be nickel and diming our way there. The forthcoming pattern says go big or go home. Am I wrong? Yes I know Wednesday could be a few pennies, but I'm looking down the line. And I can't wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Didn't know there was still a Parallel GFS... What does the next frame look like? Up to coast or OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yes there was a blizzard in SC in Feb. http://www.americanwx.com/models/raleighwx/studies/feb73.html I feel like there was at least one more sizable event that targeted NC more but maybe I have the year confused. Feb was cold and suppressed here for the most part. Thanks - you know me - always looking for ways to fail...just a nice reminder that suppressed is an absolute possibility with that kind of block. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll go with late Jan 66. Top analog d8+ and #3 d11+.Some of the comparative time frames are staggering1966-still greatest drifting I have ever seen 1977-Chesapeake bay froze, cars on south river 1983-very mild early in season and still the most intense thundersnow ever, 1" in 12 minutes 1985-record wind chills 2am temp -2 with 20 gusting to 30 mph winds 2010-snowmaggedon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro brings nothing for Tuesday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro poo poo'd the clipper. Zippo. Maybe some fast moving low clouds though. I'll stick with the GFS is better with the NS. Mostly because the GFS gives me some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Didn't know there was still a Parallel GFS... What does the next frame look like? Up to coast or OTS? isn't that 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Thanks - you know me - always looking for ways to fail...just a nice reminder that suppressed is an absolute possibility with that kind of block. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk added a note late but I wouldn't think much about it right now at least compared to patterns. the period of that storm looks very little like what we are progged ahead. definitely would be less salivation despite the 'potential'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yes there was a blizzard in SC in Feb. http://www.americanwx.com/models/raleighwx/studies/feb73.html I feel like there was at least one more sizable event that targeted NC more but maybe I have the year confused. Feb was cold and suppressed here for the most part. should note that pattern was very different tho. Feb 9-11, 1973. Began snowing late Friday afternoon and went through that Sunday. I was only 3, so I don't have any recollection of that event (sadly). My family and I were living in Sumter SC while my dad was stationed at Shaw AFB. I always tease Paul Kocin as to why it's not in "the book", but we both know the answer (it wasn't a northeast snowstorm) Ended up with 20-24" in Sumter. I found this cool youtube video clip of that storm, which was apparently taken not far from where we lived... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not to be evil - but didn't the Carolinas cash in big time in '72-'73 with a suppressed storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes...I lived in eastern NC at the time. Two big hits, 9 days off from school. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Didn't know there was still a Parallel GFS... What does the next frame look like? Up to coast or OTS? Yeah, the parallel gfs has some very minor model changes to address a near surface bias and significant DA changes (hybrid 4D EnVar, aircraft bias correction, all-sky MW radiance assimilation, and more...). I have not seen the updated schedule, but I think it is supposed to go in sometime in March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah, the parallel gfs has some very minor model changes to address a near surface bias and significant DA changes (hybrid 4D EnVar, aircraft bias correction, all-sky MW radiance assimilation, and more...). I have not seen the updated schedule, but I think it is supposed to go in sometime in March or April. Ah...Interesting... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I know it is weather porn, but that is CRUSHING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just catching up here. Exciting times ahead! One thing seems to be almost certain though. If the DMV is going for above average snowfall this winter, we won't be nickel and diming our way there. The forthcoming pattern says go big or go home. Am I wrong? Yes I know Wednesday could be a few pennies, but I'm looking down the line. And I can't wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro now drops a pv lobe sledge into the conus with a 1050 HP dropping down. Beyond suppression. For anyone who thinks the GFS has big shifts in the med-lr, the euro just topped it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro now drops a pv lobe sledge into the conus with a 1050 HP dropping down. Beyond suppression. For anyone who thinks the GFS has big shifts in the med-lr, the euro just topped it today. For which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro now drops a pv lobe sledge into the conus with a 1050 HP dropping down. Beyond suppression. For anyone who thinks the GFS has big shifts in the med-lr, the euro just topped it today. I guess more patience will be required. at least we have the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Can we wait for a few more runs before writing any obituaries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Congrats Cuba We can road trip to brownsville tx. They are going to score before us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I know these are next to useless for individual storms, but at least they are starting to look more like what they did preceding our good runs the last few years. starting to see a clear uptick in snowfall run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If rather it snow in the south and have it suppressed than be on the southern edge and watch the New England forum rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I know these are next to useless for individual storms, but at least they are starting to look more like what they did preceding our good runs the last few years. starting to see a clear uptick in snowfall run to run enssnow.gif I find it very interesting that the mean has measurable snow in Florida. That has to be rare for the mean to have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I find it very interesting that the mean has measurable snow in Florida. That has to be rare for the mean to have that. rare but not crazy, I mean were talking .5-1" so really you get one ensemble member with a crazy 10" solution and you get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The GEFS ensemble member pressure centers look squashed like the GFS OP run as well for next weekends event. There are a couple at the mouth of the Bay. But the majority are OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If rather it snow in the south and have it suppressed than be on the southern edge and watch the New England forum rejoice. We're watching you. Lol. Plenty of model runs to get this straightened out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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