isohume Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Please do. All deterministic model output beyond 90 hours should have a "For Entertainment Purposes Only" line added to the time/date stamp at the bottom... That. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll go with late Jan 66. Top analog d8+ and #3 d11+.Yeah have been some consistent 1966 analogs. The look isn't all that diff than dec 2009 with the blocking but that's only one part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah have been some consistent 1966 analogs. The look isn't all that diff than dec 2009 with the blocking but that's only one part. Check this out...not bad Last week of Jan 66 6z GEFS d6-10 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It is looking more and more likely that the all out flip is in process. All ens guidance keep the AO neg for the next 15 days. ENSO+ climo favors a -AO in Feb. I would safely say now that any long range guidance that shows a breakdown in blocking is either rushing it or missing it. Looks like our window this month will be long enough that we'll get things right at some point but bad luck is always a factor. Agreed, Bob. The simplistic viewing of the graphs is really interesting in that things have progressed pretty much in lock step with '82-'83, with a shift to the left of a few weeks. It might just be nothing more than a coincidence, but it's really interesting to look at. If it continues along the same path, then we may have a good window for some time in a much more climo-favored period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I agree with this, but I think you can also see patterns in the misses. For sure. My comment was simply a small joke for dtk. There is great value in pushing model runs further out into the extended and then bouncing verification tests against the output. That reanalysis is integral to the hard work the model physics guys do every day to make guidance better and better. The value of making those runs public is minimal though evidenced by stuff like the 18z runs for D10+ from last night trending on Twitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z GFS was a coastal SE weenie's dream run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GGEM is amped so bank on a coastal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z GFS was a coastal SE weenie's dream run. Eastern NC would be buried beyond belief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs looks mostly like last night's cmc. 0-2". Best run yet. I totally agree wit wxusaf. Best vort pass yet. Low is north but enough dynamics to give us more than a snow shower for sure. Like I said in my post last night I wasnt being blinded and looking past Tues / Wed truly appears models hint at what "may" happen 10 days out then starts to pick up the real deal 3 maybe 4 days out. I would not be surprised at all to see this storm Tues / Wed uptick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Check this out...not bad Last week of Jan 66 jan66.JPG 6z GEFS d6-10 mean gefs5d.JPG yeah not bad. I posted a 66 period and a 41 period in the last week.. both had very similar blocking configs and both had quality cold/snow within a certain range. i know 09/10 is close so people will run to that in addition to other obvious reasons. when it comes to intensity of blocking it might be an OK mention because it was about as big as blocking gets but still. tho actually 12z GFS probably looks closer to Feb 2010 than Dec 2009 now.. shifting pieces. could have similar results i suppose but running toward a top end record period is iffy heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Agreed, Bob. The simplistic viewing of the graphs is really interesting in that things have progressed pretty much in lock step with '82-'83, with a shift to the left of a few weeks. It might just be nothing more than a coincidence, but it's really interesting to look at. If it continues along the same path, then we may have a good window for some time in a much more climo-favored period. It is really interesting. Especially in the face of one nasty strat pv. I know there is a physical barrier of sorts between the trop and strat but way more often than not a consolidated, cold, and strong strat pv usually means bad stuff irt sustained blocking. On the flip side it's really interesting how the anomalous + period once again fit the 45-60 run before a flip. It's not always a flip. Sometimes just a relaxation but the more I track this stuff, the more confidence I have in the 45-60 period of anomalous + or - running their course. There are exceptions like everything else but when trying to figure stuff out 1-2 months down the road, it's useful knowledge back up with stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is not really a similar setup to 2009/10. The block is uber but that's about it. Block is key of course but again suppression is arguably more favored this go. My point about suppression and the 09/10 comparison was really with regard to how the models handled the blocking, which really impacted how far north the storm could come. Over time that year the big ones gradually trended north on the GFS, but there were concerns about suppression right up to the short term I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 yeah not bad. I posted a 66 period and a 41 period in the last week.. both had very similar blocking configs and both had quality cold/snow within a certain range. i know 09/10 is close so people will run to that in addition to other obvious reasons. when it comes to intensity of blocking it might be an OK mention because it was about as big as blocking gets but still. tho actually 12z GFS probably looks closer to Feb 2010 than Dec 2009 now.. shifting pieces. could have similar results i suppose but running toward a top end record period is iffy heh. I just look at it (like you do) irt how favorable a setup is in general. Regardless of how big analog storms were. General looks and specific storms are miles apart. Right now it looks like we have the highest probability of a good storm in quite some time. But at this range you can't really say much more than above normal chances. Certainly not much above. And absolutely not a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Two takeaways from the gfs: Next Tuesday looks like a legit chance for accumulation. Last two weeks of January do not look boring. I think everyone of us would have signed up for a two week period with a strong -AO/nao, cold air, and active stj. Let's see what happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My point about suppression and the 09/10 comparison was really with regard to how the models handled the blocking, which really impacted how far north the storm could come. Over time that year the big ones gradually trended north on the GFS, but there were concerns about suppression right up to the short term I believe. Well to be honest I hadn't looked at this run yet. It does have some similarities to Feb 2010 now that I dig in. At least around the mid-mo period. So, maybe didn't need to be so adamant esp given Dec 2009 has shown up repeatedly in analogs too. It's just such a high bar and this Nino is a rager. Overall I think it's true we're better off seeing stuff south than north at range but strong Ninos do have plenty of suppression history so it's not necessarily clear cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll go with late Jan 66. Top analog d8+ and #3 d11+. we cleaned up down here in January of 1966. The totals were comparable to DC to Philly in that same 10 days stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 How's the Euro for Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Two takeaways from the gfs: Next Tuesday looks like a legit chance for accumulation. Last two weeks of January do not look boring. I think everyone of us would have signed up for a two week period with a strong -AO/nao, cold air, and active stj. Let's see what happens . CMC is good again. .5 - 2" through the area. Max stripe just west of the cities. ETA: Here's a snip from 6z Wed. Best period is 8pm to 2am. A little light stuff falls starting @ 2pm tues but inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well to be honest I hadn't looked at this run yet. It does have some similarities to Feb 2010 now that I dig in. At least around the mid-mo period. So, maybe didn't need to be so adamant esp given Dec 2009 has shown up repeatedly in analogs too. It's just such a high bar and this Nino is a rager. Overall I think it's true we're better off seeing stuff south than north at range but strong Ninos do have plenty of suppression history so it's not necessarily clear cut. We have a historic nino and a historic block - why not compare to historic storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 CMC is good again. .5 - 2" through the area. Max stripe just west of the cities. You are talking snow acc. right? If you're talking QPF, I'm gonna get jiggy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 How's the Euro for Wednesday? 35, sunny, and breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Well to be honest I hadn't looked at this run yet. It does have some similarities to Feb 2010 now that I dig in. At least around the mid-mo period. So, maybe didn't need to be so adamant esp given Dec 2009 has shown up repeatedly in analogs too. It's just such a high bar and this Nino is a rager. Overall I think it's true we're better off seeing stuff south than north at range but strong Ninos do have plenty of suppression history so it's not necessarily clear cut.Mercy...The precarious position of our location can be maddening! So too much blocking suppresses (And by that you mean that too much keeps the storm too far south?) Well, looks like the forum mood will be just as precarious with each model run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 the GEFS has an unreal looking block on hr 168 next Friday. I mean it should be a screensaver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 How's the Euro for Wednesday? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEFS low location panel hr 216. Looks good enough for me. The run overall favors suppression over running too close. There is decent hp over and to the north of us before this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 We have a historic nino and a historic block - why not compare to historic storms I was borderline rude, sorry. I actually mentioned 09/10 myself last night on Twitter even though I have cringed at mentions of it compared to this season all along. Here's the Davis strait area compared https://twitter.com/splillo/status/685337283617148928 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/685341450297413632 I guess in the end I think the nino/tropical influence is greater this year plus the look we've seen so far for a storm has a different type of origin which is arguably more complicated. Plus it gets beaten into your head over time as a forecaster to not run to historic events until you have to. Of course this is a weather forum and we all chase HECS here.... including myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 not out yet I meant 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 35, sunny, and breezy Can't tell if you're serious lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I was borderline rude, sorry. I actually mentioned 09/10 myself last night on Twitter even though I have cringed at mentions of it compared to this season all along. Here's the Davis strait area compared https://twitter.com/splillo/status/685337283617148928 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/685341450297413632 I guess in the end I think the nino/tropical influence is greater this year plus the look we've seen so far for a storm has a different type of origin which is arguably more complicated. Plus it gets beaten into your head over time as a forecaster to not run to historic events until you have to. Of course this is a weather forum and we all chase HECS here.... including myself. You weren't borderline rude. I threw the last post with the emoticon in there just so you wouldn't take the statement too literally. I guess I am always looking for the big storm similarities because that's really what excites me about winter weather. I don't mind waiting the typical 5-10 years for the historic ones. So I guess it's all a matter of perspective. In any case, I find the historic block and historic nino to be a combination we've never seen in recorded history, so I guess it's really anybody's guess how it pans out. But it is certainly intriguing to have two massive titans in play (historic nino and historic blocking). Truth is nobody knows where the shortwaves in the southern stream will be or how strong they will be at this lead, as typically that is the last piece of the puzzle to reveal itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not to be evil - but didn't the Carolinas cash in big time in '72-'73 with a suppressed storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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