Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Through 156 hours the PV/ 50/50 is in a MUCH better spot & is much stronger. On the flip side the disturbance down South seems a bit weaker so we'll see. Cold air should be better this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Much colder now for the past 3 runs. this run should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 You can see by 150 a cold hp dropping right into the mw because of more favorable upper levels. Another key feature we need to hope for. I like seeing these things on ops in medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 You can see by 150 a cold hp dropping right into the mw because of more favorable upper levels. Another key feature we need to hope for. I like seeing these things on ops in medium range. Its way out in front of the 18Z run, but the jury is still out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Its way out in front of the 18Z run, but the jury is still out there. I always look for the earliest possible signs (good or bad) in the upper levels. 12z gfs is a nice setup by d5-6. Still out there in time but far from a d10 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Vort differences at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS does what the 00z EURO did to an extent. The PV is now too strong & the energy down south is too strung out and weak...However it is okay, the setup is still there. I'm actually more positive about the storm after this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think we're better off with the stronger PV. Not sure it will really be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So many pieces of energy this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think we're better off with the stronger PV. Not sure it will really be suppressed. My only fear if any would be the blocking gets too strong. We're no where close to that stage yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS does what the 00z EURO did to an extent. The PV is now too strong & the energy down south is too strung out and weak...However it is okay, the setup is still there. I'm actually more positive about the storm after this run Yeah the ops tend to wash out those southern stream vorts in the mid-long range periods with a significant block, and they usually end up bringing them back in the short - med range. I would rather see suppression at this point with a setup like this for sure. I believe the nino will help ensure the southern stream energy will be there when we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS does what the 00z EURO did to an extent. The PV is now too strong & the energy down south is too strung out and weak...However it is okay, the setup is still there. I'm actually more positive about the storm after this run Medium to long range pv drops have been verifying weaker this winter. Who knows if that is right this time but I'd much prefer to see this than what 0z dished out. There is no ns low tracking the lakes and actual cold hp to the N. I thought the run was a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Super ninos have a stronger + snow signal to our south in many cases.. so don't root for suppression too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hm, the block has retrograded so far that there is a low that may end up forming down south post 213 hours....So many players on the field & so far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just happy to see that GL low gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think we're better off with the stronger PV. Not sure it will really be suppressed. Suppression is a concern with that much blocking. It all depends on the position of the PV. 2010 it was in perfect position for us. Not so for NY city and North though. Any solution is viable at this point. Including no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just happy to see that GL low gone Someone define for me please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z GFS at hr 198, where is the low??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GGEM still shows a 1-2 hour moderate to heavy snow tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Nevermind.....suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Someone define for me please? Great lakes low. Anytime you have low pressure to the north it allows southerly flow in the surface/mid levels in front of a storm to the south. They screw up the column and/or track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If I recall in 2010 correctly there were a number of runs leading up to the big ones that year that showed suppression and a sharp northern cutoff to the precip. That cutoff eventually trended north in the short term getting DC/Baltimore into the heavy axis. This will be a similar setup to 2010, so that's something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Man the GFS is ICE cold after next week. tons of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I understand. I will beat this horse until it is dead 500x over. Please do. All deterministic model output beyond 90 hours should have a "For Entertainment Purposes Only" line added to the time/date stamp at the bottom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If I recall in 2010 correctly there were a number of runs leading up to the big ones that year that showed suppression and a sharp northern cutoff to the precip. That cutoff eventually trended north in the short term getting DC/Baltimore into the heavy axis. This will be a similar setup to 2010, so that's something to keep in mind. This usually happens with this kind of setup. The models will waffle around a lot moving the heaviest axis back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 How does 1/22 sound to you all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is not really a similar setup to 2009/10. The block is uber but that's about it. Block is key of course but again suppression is arguably more favored this go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Please do. All deterministic model output beyond 90 hours should have a "For Entertainment Purposes Only" line added to the time/date stamp at the bottom... I agree with this, but I think you can also see patterns in the misses. For me, watching the gfs at long range (7-10) it seems that it has consistently been too far east and suppressed with storms that we have had. Because of that, my take on the 7-10 from here is that suppression is the last thing we will have to worry about....if there is a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is not really a similar setup to 2009/10. The block is uber but that's about it. Block is key of course but again suppression is arguably more favored this go. I'll go with late Jan 66. Top analog d8+ and #3 d11+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If anything maybe compare the good storm looks to 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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