mattie g Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just throwing this out there. It's going to be a lot of steps. I just made a post in the SE thread about the AO. Interestingly, 82-83 was awful hostile until mid Jan. The beginning of Jan would have made me puke knowing what I know now. Good thing I was only a crazy kid calling 936-1212 5 times a day. This is DJF 82-83 ao.JPG I haven't looked at how Nov fits into the 45-60 day period that seems to be common with anomalous AO regimes (in both directions). And the cases we looked at in years past are mixed with some being all out flips and others being a relax and reload so it's hard to say where we are going there. But it's possible our anomalous period began in Nov. That would support the possibility of a large change any time during Jan with the second half being the most likely. Just gotta sit back and wait it out. And go fishing because lakes are still warm enough for active bass...haha Move that graph to the left by a couple/few weeks and we might be onto something. Look at the graph since mid-August: Late-year 2015 AO.gif Not saying we should make a 1-to-1 (minus a few weeks) comparison, but it's certainly thought-provoking. And the latest AO plot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Last frame pre-hecs? lmao look at that moisture plume! eta: would also be mostly rain eta is long gone. It's called the NAM eta: eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 eta is long gone. It's called the NAM eta: eta Eta=1/17/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big spread on euro ens. The general idea is the same as what we are thinking but solutions are quite mixed. The only concerning thing is there too many solutions with a good track but no good hp placement to the N and enough pesky surface reflections near the lakes to give one pause. OTOH- euro paralell has a nice 1030 hp anchored in Quebec with a pure miller A. Track is a bit inland from GA to RDU @ D10. BR west get good snow. I would guess the low jumps the coast from Central NC considering the strong HP but that is going into too much detail. The big + is pure HP to the north during the time frame. That's a big key on what to look for going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Don S. post in main thread will bring a lot of smiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big spread on euro ens. The general idea is the same as what we are thinking but solutions are quite mixed. The only concerning thing is there too many solutions with a good track but no good hp placement to the N and enough pesky surface reflections near the lakes to give one pause. OTOH- euro paralell has a nice 1030 hp anchored in Quebec with a pure miller A. Track is a bit inland from GA to RDU @ D10. BR west get good snow. I would guess the low jumps the coast from Central NC considering the strong HP but that is going into too much detail. The big + is pure HP to the north during the time frame. That's a big key on what to look for going forward. There is decent confluence of SE Canada on many individual members, a HP is certainly a big plus but always a deal breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big spread on euro ens. The general idea is the same as what we are thinking but solutions are quite mixed. The only concerning thing is there too many solutions with a good track but no good hp placement to the N and enough pesky surface reflections near the lakes to give one pause. OTOH- euro paralell has a nice 1030 hp anchored in Quebec with a pure miller A. Track is a bit inland from GA to RDU @ D10. BR west get good snow. I would guess the low jumps the coast from Central NC considering the strong HP but that is going into too much detail. The big + is pure HP to the north during the time frame. That's a big key on what to look for going forward. Been wondering where you were. Must have been a 3 cup morning. What is your opinion of this Euro parallel? Have you been monitoring its verification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Don S. post in main thread will bring a lot of smiles. He has had some outstanding post recently. I need to take a look at his latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 And the latest AO plot: It is looking more and more likely that the all out flip is in process. All ens guidance keep the AO neg for the next 15 days. ENSO+ climo favors a -AO in Feb. I would safely say now that any long range guidance that shows a breakdown in blocking is either rushing it or missing it. Looks like our window this month will be long enough that we'll get things right at some point but bad luck is always a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Been wondering where you were. Must have been a 3 cup morning. What is your opinion of this Euro parallel? Have you been monitoring its verification? I've been tied up with some complicated stuff for work. We work with clients in CA so I've been up late as heck the last few nights. Chose to sleep in this morning. I'm way too old for back to back 4hr sleep nights. lol I've only heard that the parallel is scoring better than the op. I don't have access to the really detailed panels to make any judgement myself. I don't think scoring better has much to do with D10 stuff though. Probably inside of 7 days. I will say that the parallel was mostly showing less favorable outcomes for any previous threat window than the euro op. This is the first time I've seen it actually want to snow on us or nearby when the op doesn't. Gotta sweat it out for the weekend until we are at least near the tail end of op useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It is looking more and more likely that the all out flip is in process. All ens guidance keep the AO neg for the next 15 days. ENSO+ climo favors a -AO in Feb. I would safely say now that any long range guidance that shows a breakdown in blocking is either rushing it or missing it. Looks like our window this month will be long enough that we'll get things right at some point but bad luck is always a factor. If things progress and stay on track the benefits from the flip may peak somewhere around the 22nd to 29th and that can be a very productive period historically speaking. A lot of very good storms of all variety have occurred during the 4th week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Don S. post in main thread will bring a lot of smiles.Which thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If things progress and stay on track the benefits from the flip may peak somewhere around the 22nd to 29th and that can be a very productive period historically speaking. A lot of very good storms of all variety have occurred during the 4th week of January. ...whereas, as people have shown many times, mid-January has historically been a wasteland for the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 ...whereas, as people have shown many times, mid-January has historically been a wasteland for the big storm.Thereby casting some doubt on something happening next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Don S. post in main thread will bring a lot of smiles. It did indeed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Amen. One step at a time. We broom our porches Wednesday morning and then watch how our event becomes the block for the big daddy lol. What do you think is the limit of potential for midweek? I could see a stronger and southern trend, but not quite to the extent of The Clipper That Did last season. Would a stronger first event make it more likely we get downstream blocking? I think for areas east of the BR, I would put the max potential at 2" with of course nothing being the worst case scenario lol. The system looks pretty energetic to begin with, but the potential for the system to really dig southward is more dependent on the upstream ridge axis. It looks pretty set in the overall pattern the system will be a digger, but as far south as the MA due to the ridging out west. The key factor for the max potential will be the vort passage providing the lift, creating a fairly unstable environment, enough to provide a good deal of dendrite growth. I showed the 6z GFS Bufkit for IAD at the time of the clipper and you can see the instability created with the tilting back of the isotherm and the snow growth layer situated between 750 - 650 mb. That's a pretty good environment for snow growth and flake size, but just off the optimum. Due to up-sloping effects for areas west of the BR, those spots will see a lot more potential for maxing out into the 4-8" range, especially areas like Elkins/Davis/Far WMD past Cumberland in the ridges above 2500'. As far as the downstream blocking, one would have to believe a stronger vort max would allow for a stronger system downstream, allowing for a slightly better block, but as far as the orientation of the block, there's other components that go into it. I like the look I'm seeing now in the LR and we just have to really wait out past this weekend to see how the beginning of the pattern unfolds. The system for Saturday/Sunday is what will begin our domino effect. I won't be worried of a "No storm" until sometime next week once all the players start taking the field. It's still too far out in la-la land to get over anxious either way. I will say I have liked that time period for a while as I've mentioned in the PA subforum, so it'll still be something to pay attention to no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This weeks version was modeled to be a Chicago/Iowa cutter just a few days ago. It is now modeled to be a Cincinnati cutter. That's quite a difference, and with a high to our northeast would have been a winter storm setup. That's what I've been saying about the GFS. Use at long range with caution. We are still very much in the game regardless of what it might show right now. That's actually not unexpected for a deterministic run at medium range. The second bolded is true for any deterministic model, not just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I've been tied up with some complicated stuff for work. We work with clients in CA so I've been up late as heck the last few nights. Chose to sleep in this morning. I'm way too old for back to back 4hr sleep nights. lol I've only heard that the parallel is scoring better than the op. I don't have access to the really detailed panels to make any judgement myself. I don't think scoring better has much to do with D10 stuff though. Probably inside of 7 days. I will say that the parallel was mostly showing less favorable outcomes for any previous threat window than the euro op. This is the first time I've seen it actually want to snow on us or nearby when the op doesn't. Gotta sweat it out for the weekend until we are at least near the tail end of op useful range. Folks can read about the verification of the parallel ECWMF (cycle 42r1) here: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2#DetailedinformationofimplementationofIFScycle41r2-Meteorologicalimpactofthenewcycle Skill at day 10 in terms of hemispheric AC in the mid troposphere is like .55 for the main operational models. The details of forecasts at this range are essentially useless from the deterministic runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Next Tuesday/Wednesday's vort looks better through 84hrs on the 12z gfs. Deeper and farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Snow starts around 10:00pm Tuesday I-95 west. Decent and quick Tuesday Night, 0.1-0.13" QPF for DC/Bal metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's actually not unexpected for a deterministic run at medium range. The second bolded is true for any deterministic model, not just the GFS. Yes, I know. And I always appreciate your posts. I never bash models. I'm just pointing out the obvious I suppose. Don't bet too much money on a long range model forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yes, I know. And I always appreciate your posts. I never bash models. I'm just pointing out the obvious I suppose. Don't bet too much money on a long range model forecast I understand. I will beat this horse until it is dead 500x over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I wonder if we might pull out a light event in and around the 13th?? There's a little clipper type system showing up in quite a few 18z members.....quite a few more than were there at 12z. Oh ............. it does keep looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs looks mostly like last night's cmc. 0-2". Best run yet. I totally agree wit wxusaf. Best vort pass yet. Low is north but enough dynamics to give us more than a snow shower for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I understand. I will beat this horse until it is dead 500x over. And I don't blame you. I'm a gfs guy. I think it is a great model. Did great last year I thought. I guess really all of them have struggled somewhat more this year. Or.......... it seems that way. Not getting good results (weather that we want) probably makes us all nitpick more than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS would be good for a inch to inch and a half for Eastern Balt and AA counties NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Solid clipper for the gfs. Near-perfect vort pass for our area. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 And I don't blame you. I'm a gfs guy. I think it is a great model. Did great last year I thought. I guess really all of them have struggled somewhat more this year. Or.......... it seems that way. Not getting good results (weather that we want) probably makes us all nitpick more than normal. Eh, it's actually not a "great model". It could be so much better, and I'm somewhat optimistic good things will come out of the NGGPS project though the implementations are still many years down the road.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Gfs looking better for later down the line already at hr 132 @ h5. Regardless of what happens late in the run the conditions are more favorable for not having a ridge popping in front of the vort or easy cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big run to run differences. The energy over the SW has been moving more into the northern stream run after run tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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