Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 instantweathermaps.com is usually pretty fast. I'll have to check that out, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 yeah instant is quick. sv is about as quick as they come but instant is not much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You beat me to it.... yes lets lock that up and lock it in... only its Day 8 and 9 We should start a pool on when our chances for this event get totally squashed, and another day 8-10 potential shows up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z GGEM likes the Jan 22-23 (at least from the SLPs I see... its 1005 at hr 192 in NE GA and 992 at 204 off of ACY by about 150-200 miles) Waiting for precip maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would say a nesis 4 like this would raise a few million weenie spirits. Might be a last hurrah chance before the pac hurts us for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Never said significant snow. But ice and snow is truly a possibility in western MD west of 81 and in Some of the low valleys in PA some freezing rain is possible. then it turns into a snowstorm up north. This was supposed to be a cutter into the lakes with a transfer over or west of this region. It is now a coastal storm. Like i said it would be 6 days ago. People can misconstrue information all they want. i never said a blizzard or a massive snowstorm. i said places in northern MD had a shot Western MD is definitely game and so are portions of PA. I was the ONLY one here that said it would be going coastal and guess what it is and still is going to impact. its not going OTS its not going inland its a coastal storm. just a warmer storm Period The far western mountains are another world. Even there they will get most of whatever snow falls once the low goes by. This has been locked in as a mild rainstorm for days. GL low wrecks the low/mid levels. That has not changed. End of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Seems to rely on the low in the TN valley jumping off track via NC, though... I could still see it continuing a straight line up the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would say a nesis 4 like this would raise a few million weenie spirits. Might be a last hurrah chance before the pac hurts us for a little while nesis4.JPG Wow...that's quite literally a coastal runner there if it only could happen. All major cities get clobbered. (ETA: I meant running up the coast with heavy snow...not implying an "inland runner"!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We get almost a full 2 hours to enjoy this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would say a nesis 4 like this would raise a few million weenie spirits. Might be a last hurrah chance before the pac hurts us for a little while nesis4.JPG if that happens, I'm willing to forgive and forget this past 45 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We get almost a full 2 hours to enjoy this solution. Yeah, when the Euro sends it into the Ohio Valley area. That's my bet on the table for a forecast of its forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would say a nesis 4 like this would raise a few million weenie spirits. Might be a last hurrah chance before the pac hurts us for a little while nesis4.JPG end of pattern blizzard in a strong Nino?.....that never happens p.s. so yeah, I'm saying there's a chance, and that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We deserve it. The whole megalopolis deserves that snowstorm. nope. no one north of the MD line deserves it. We don't root for others outside our area to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would say a nesis 4 like this would raise a few million weenie spirits. Might be a last hurrah chance before the pac hurts us for a little while nesis4.JPG Speaking of NESIS-- that distribution is pretty reminiscent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Have the storm there on Sunday night and then I am interested... I feel like Charlie Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I mean, it's a pretty classic look for a heavy snowfall for us. Primary rides to TN, transfer to NC coast and rides on up. I'd pay good money for this one to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z GGEM precip maps are decent... even though it jumps from 192 to 204... waiting on the precip type maps -- hoping all that precip is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This would be an ALL day storm. Geeze it goes on forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If the Euro has it, I'm going full Ravens94 and jumping all in. What else do we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 While this one is far out, it is the first threat that has a legit HP in the right spot. It is also the first time where it has been on a model for multiple runs. We also have it on the GGEM as well ti seems 2 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 nope. no one north of the MD line deserves it. We don't root for others outside our area to get snow. Except for Highzenberg, but thats it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 While this one is far out, it is the first threat that has a legit HP in the right spot. It is also the first time where it has been on a model for multiple runs. We also have it on the GGEM as well ti seems 2 runs in a row and most importantly.. still 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 if that happens, I'm willing to forgive and forget this past 45 days It's an interesting h5 evolution on the gfs. But the pieces have to play out spot on to keep this from a west track. You can see a strong 50/50 in place @ 126 and a disturbance just west of the MS river Then by 150 the disturbance is exiting and reinforcing the confluence that the 50/50 low left behind. This is key at this point in time By 162 you can see the confluence holding strong enough and the vort digging in the west. The vort is able to dig because of a nice ridge popping behind it down the line and there was enough confluence to keep it from gaining latitude at a crucial time. What can go wrong? Everything. Back off on the confluence and reinforcement just a little and we have a west track. The 50/50 is running away the whole time. Just analyzing this particular run. The same general idea we've been talking about for a couple days remains. My money is on an overhead or west track but enough cold air in place before it to give us something other than plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Gefs is pretty supportive for a snow event d8-10. Typical long lead spread but looking pretty good right now. Hp to the north showing up quite well. I don't have access to mean snowfall plots but from what I can see on the members it's probably the highest mean of the year. PSU would approve. I took a day off from posting about the pattern, seemed everyone was going nuts over one run of the GFS with no real support from anything else. I know were starving here but I figured I would wait until that died down. The GEFS is definitely supportive of the threat. 0z was the best run of the winter by far with several good hits and lots of minor but still measurable ones too. 6z backed off slightly but still has a good look. EPS also indicates there is at least a chance although it is less bullish. Long range all 3 ensembles relax the patter in the 10-15 day period. However we are back to a split with the GGEM very bullish on a reload of an eastern trough, southern storm track and this time the ridging centered over western canada. that could be a very good look for us. Not that cold but stormy. Euro is close but is holding the STJ back a bit but seems to play into its bias, it suggests the GGEM might just be a few days fast on developing the pattern. I like where both are heading as we get towards Feb. GEFS suggests its torch city day 15 and has a 98 look to it. For the record, the GEFS has been doing well in the 5-12 day range with threat windows, but has been continually trying to develop a return to a torchy pattern in the long long range and has yet to verify so take that for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would say a nesis 4 like this would raise a few million weenie spirits. Might be a last hurrah chance before the pac hurts us for a little while nesis4.JPG This is definitely a digital snow thread finalist...might be the winner in the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There is nothing for the models to latch onto so they are unable to pick a most probable outcome for this weekend and what follows We had zero cold in december. We have it now. Keep firing short waves at it and the target gets hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 On a side not, I found a major problem with the GEFS mean snowfall maps I was using. It became obvious to me last night just looking at them, then I saw the mean maps Ian posted and they were accurate and mine were way off. I cant use 0z because they are unavailable right now for some reason and they were even more obvious but at 6z I added up the snowfall on all the members for my location. The mean was 6.5" but the map shows 3". I am not sure if that map has some calculation that limits the skew from outliers like the 13" and 10" ensemble members, and if so that is a good idea, but it says mean and 3" is definitely NOT the mean, perhaps its really the mode. Either way worth mentioning the discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 yeah that was my take too. anyway I think most have been on the coastal train since it was a viable thing but they also didn't ignore the primary killing the airmass. I thought it would be better to respond here. If you remember in the beginning of the week, there was no storm on the coast, perhaps one after a transfer to our north. Then it started showing the more south transfer and actually blew up a strong storm just off the coast. The discussion about lower levels and the airmass is pointless if there is no storm. No storm, or a considerably less impactful storm is where the gfs has been headed the past two days. I barely get any precip out of it. I'm talking about Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 New thread Geeks. Go there please. Thank you. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47621-january-medlong-range-discussion-part-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ^^ haven't you been wrong enough on this event already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.