Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm starting to focus on spring. Could be in the weeklies' range tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like we have some cold and dry for next week anyway. It will feel like winter. And look brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm starting to focus on spring. As long as it shows stormy weather, thats fine... no meh's allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Could be in the weeklies' range tonight. It's coming. After our cold and rainy March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If we can just get a threat under 150 hours. Yes, this is our benchmark when in other years, it would be laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 As long as it shows stormy weather, thats fine... no meh's allowed I do not consider 8+ days... "stormy weather". We have not had one chance at a storm when the models have gotten in the 5 day range. We have been blessed the last couple of years and now we think our climo is one that gets 50 inches a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 High res GGEM takes a 1006 over north TX. roughly 400 miles or so north of the GFS. The GFS was using the northern side before until it started forming the low in the gulf (Bottom image). the Lat the system takes will determine a lot. If it stays north and strong it will be easier to phase. also need it to be faster. GGEM is about 3 hours faster. GGEM GLB should be different given this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ^^ haven't you been wrong enough on this event already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ^^ haven't you been wrong enough on this event already? Thank God somebody said it. I mean, I admire tenacity and optimism, but he's crossed this weird line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Seems to me that storm you all said was going to cut is now a coastal storm riding up the coast that will give portions of Western MD snow and ice. Also seems to me you all said it was going to far east yesterday and now its coming back west. Bipolar people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If this was 100 hours closer I would be kinda excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I do not consider 8+ days... "stormy weather". We have not had one chance at a storm when the models have gotten in the 5 day range. We have been blessed the last couple of years and now we think our climo is one that gets 50 inches a year. Not sure who you mean by "we", but I don't think anyone in this sub-forum seriously believes or expects that (unless you mean that tongue-in-cheek of course!). Only if they're being ultra-weenie or joking. Yes, we were quite fortunate the past two years in some ways; especially last year. But it's not unreasonable to expect to produce at least something in a halfway decent pattern (which we've had for a couple of weeks now) as we get into the climatologically coldest time of the year. Quite a run of bad luck to still be at essentially zero right now (other than the squalls the other evening), and seeing two possibilities slip through our fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If this was 100 hours closer I would be kinda excited gfsh5.JPG thats 7 days out. A record this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Seems to me that storm you all said was going to cut is now a coastal storm riding up the coast that will give portions of Western MD snow and ice. Also seems to me you all said it was going to far east yesterday and now its coming back west. Bipolar people You think Western MD is going to get significant snow and ice from this storm? Seems like a longshot. By the time the cold front gets through the batch of precip is moving out and it looks like NW flow/upslope only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Seems to me that storm you all said was going to cut is now a coastal storm riding up the coast that will give portions of Western MD snow and ice. Also seems to me you all said it was going to far east yesterday and now its coming back west. Bipolar people lol. Good luck with your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wasn't there another storm a week or two ago that the Euro suppressed and the GFS showed a snowstorm? And then it's massive fail with Joaquin. Maybe it's just confirmation bias on my part, but is there reason to believe the GFS is falling even farther behind? It has done decent with northern stream systems this winter I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 thats 7 days out. A record this winter I find this GFS run acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If this was 100 hours closer I would be kinda excited gfsh5.JPG If that was 50 hours closer I'd be excited with the way this has gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 198 is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I find this GFS run acceptable. You're out that far already? I'm up to 147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 198 is good. Under 200!! Damn, how are yall getting there so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I find this GFS run acceptable. Sure is a big hit....Good thing we don't need to lose sleep for another 100 hours or so Is it trying to transfer at 198? I know its way out there but just learning a little bit as we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I do not consider 8+ days... "stormy weather". We have not had one chance at a storm when the models have gotten in the 5 day range. We have been blessed the last couple of years and now we think our climo is one that gets 50 inches a year. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea, this would work ok with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You think Western MD is going to get significant snow and ice from this storm? Seems like a longshot. By the time the cold front gets through the batch of precip is moving out and it looks like NW flow/upslope only. Never said significant snow. But ice and snow is truly a possibility in western MD west of 81 and in Some of the low valleys in PA some freezing rain is possible. then it turns into a snowstorm up north. This was supposed to be a cutter into the lakes with a transfer over or west of this region. It is now a coastal storm. Like i said it would be 6 days ago. People can misconstrue information all they want. i never said a blizzard or a massive snowstorm. i said places in northern MD had a shot Western MD is definitely game and so are portions of PA. I was the ONLY one here that said it would be going coastal and guess what it is and still is going to impact. its not going OTS its not going inland its a coastal storm. just a warmer storm Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea, this would work ok with me gfssn.JPG You beat me to it.... yes lets lock that up and lock it in... only its Day 8 and 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You're out that far already? I'm up to 147 Unfortunately, I'm stuck using the NCEP mag page myself right now, which is s-l-o-w. I usually get the full model outlook just by seeing what's in here a lot of times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Unfortunately, I'm stuck using the NCEP mag page myself right now, which is s-l-o-w. I usually get the full model outlook just by seeing what's in here a lot of times! instantweathermaps.com is usually pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Unfortunately, I'm stuck using the NCEP mag page myself right now, which is s-l-o-w. I usually get the full model outlook just by seeing what's in here a lot of times!I'm only out to 126 on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You beat me to it.... yes lets lock that up and lock it in... only its Day 8 and 9 It moved back towards the 0Z monster from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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