Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'd love to see this blow up. People been silly over it on the other social. It's like you're not even allowed to mention a good 'potential' pattern anymore or the wx police get ya. A reason the forums will live on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 we have no luck or bad luck. We are good at saying next though This weekend is the first real chance we've had. I'd say both storms are juat bad luck. It wouldn't have taken all that much to get something at least modest out of the whole deal. It's been really stubborn up and down the coast though. We're far from being singled out here. I haven't written off the Sunday deal yet. It's just a longshot with no noticeable favorable trend today across guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I hope people are continiing to look @ the GFS, because the 162 hr setup is drool worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 FOLKS! Check out GFS 168 hours, absolutely awesome sprawling HP to our N, A positively tilted shortwave out west, and a ton of confluence to our N as well...this is screaming MECS guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Bob where are you man, check out 177 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 180 hrs that vort is strengthening a BIT too much for my liking, but there is still a solid HP to our N and decent confluence over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 180 hrs that vort is strengthening a BIT too much for my liking, but there is still a solid HP to our N and decent confluence over the region. No one wants to bite on anything. 180 might as well be next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Bob where are you man, check out 177 hours The idea has been supported with both the eps and Gefs for a couple days now. Looks like a decent chance considering the lead. Could easily go west but the cad sig showing up is encouraging. Waaay to far out there to get excited by an op run but nice to see the gfs following the more favorable cluster of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 195 hrs CAD starting to show up...with that confluence the shortwave should probably weaken a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Problem by then is we're back into +AO/+NAO it seems. I mean yeah last two winters yada yada. But you can't feel comfortable with something ideal or close at such range when it doesn't need big shifts to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, tough to get that excited, thsi run will will probably end up too far NW anyway...I just like to keep my eyes peeled onto the next one when things are looking bleak thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Problem by then is we're back into +AO/+NAO it seems. I mean yeah last two winters yada yada. But you can't feel comfortable with something ideal or close at such range when it doesn't need big shifts to suck. Yea I'm not excited at all really, EURO is way inland anyway....well maybe we'll see a miracle on the 12z runs for Sun nights storm , night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, tough to get that excited, thsi run will will probably end up too far NW anyway...I just like to keep my eyes peeled onto the next one when things are looking bleak thats allLooks like that at 174 hrs to this weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 SSDD....Feb I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 lol...we get a foot of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Verbatim it's a pretty good front end raking. Should be post worthy in the digital snow thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 While there is confluence there is no 50/50 to lock in any HP, so we'd need a really weak shortwave, which is playing with fire, so honestly its a long shot, THOUGh, we will have some cold air to play with so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea I'm not excited at all really, EURO is way inland anyway....well maybe we'll see a miracle on the 12z runs for Sun nights storm , night all There's just so damned many waves for one thing. I counted just thru next Thur and there were 5 consolidated southern stream vorts. Greatly diminishes any sort of confidence at range and causes assorted other problems.. tho perhaps less western ridge would be a good thing for the storm after the storm after the storm (or whatever one the 200 hr thingy is now). I have to admit the sinking feeling of wasting time and futility has started to hit me more. We might need to reshuffle for a while and try again with better wavelengths .... tho I wouldn't be that shocked if Nino messes with that usual idea heading into late winter at least a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm going to enjoy my 12" of snow GFS gave me from the D9 storm, tyvm. Until it's gone as we get within a week or five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It looks like one of those setups where it will look good in the LR, but as we move closer it shifts NW because there is no 50/50....so I'd imagine, like I just said, that we'd need a shortwave to develop & strengthen later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Verbatim it's a pretty good front end raking. Should be post worthy in the digital snow thread it's really rare to get more than 6" in immediate DC metro from a storm that goes to our west...It usually flips by then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea I'm not excited at all really, EURO is way inland anyway....well maybe we'll see a miracle on the 12z runs for Sun nights storm , night all The euro is almost always way inland with everything beyond day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 it's really rare to get more than 6" in immediate DC metro from a storm that goes to our west...It usually flips by then.. I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It looks like one of those setups where it will look good in the LR, but as we move closer it shifts NW because there is no 50/50....so I'd imagine, like I just said, that we'd need a shortwave to develop & strengthen laterNot saying the evolution or depiction of the GFS is right but this supposed sick setup that we were anticipating yielded us a trace of snow. So maybe a "non-ideal pattern" may do the trick to get us a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There's just so damned many waves for one thing. I counted just thru next Thur and there were 5 consolidated southern stream vorts. Greatly diminishes any sort of confidence at range and causes assorted other problems.. tho perhaps less western ridge would be a good thing for the storm after the storm after the storm (or whatever one the 200 hr thingy is now). I have to admit the sinking feeling of wasting time and futility has started to hit me more. We might need to reshuffle for a while and try again with better wavelengths .... tho I wouldn't be that shocked if Nino messes with that usual idea heading into late winter at least a bit. agreed...I think we'll score something measurable by the end of the month. Might be that final week if not earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening. TO me, and I am much further south but there is always a warm nose that sneaks in sooner than modeled on lows to the west unless cold air is being replenished. Also not seeing the confluence Heisenberg speaks of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening.didn't we get 10 inches last Feb with a west track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 didn't we get 10 inches last Feb with a west track Yea, and we had the very common air mass that spotted us a 20 degree lead at tipoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening. me too...often it changes to freezing drizzle/drizzle or mix or light rain or dries out quickly. We flip a lot, but often it isn't a big deal. I think sometimes people overreact to a flip. Usually it isn't driving rain and a temp spike where we flood away all our snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Day 6 shortwave could make a decent overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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