Ji Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Most guidance is now showing more than a flurry on on Wed. Euro is a dusting. CMC is a half inch in the city and a 1.5 Mt parkton jack. Low passing to the N comes with typical issues. Best dynamics north and temps on return flow before precip are always a problem. But it's looking more likely as we move forward in time that we'll have our biggest event so far this winter. If I got one flake...it would be my biggest event of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If I got one flake...it would be my biggest event of the winter Then you are in for a major event. I had about 18 flakes fall on Dec 18th. I could double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 204 hrs....wow that is one HELL of a NAO block. It is basically retrograding the around the PV. I don't have a clue what it is going to do in the next few frames, but I do think its better than 12z. The shortwaves do seem a bit chaotic and all over the place so idk if its going to form a big low, but regardless the pieces are on the playing field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 204 hrs....wow that is one HELL of a NAO block. It is basically retrograding the around the PV. I don't have a clue what it is going to do in the next few frames, but I do think its better than 12z. The shortwaves do seem a bit chaotic and all over the place so idk if its going to form a big low, but regardless the pieces are on the playing field are you crazy man...it's 10 days out. Go to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 222...This might sound like a long shot, but there is a small chance that the huge retrograding block might force that ULL lobe to drop in and phase with that front down south. I'm going to bed, but should be a fun week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 To summarize, the Northern stream looked better this run, but the shortwave down south was kind of disjointed and all over the place couldn't get its act together, its all good thoigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 To summarize, the Northern stream looked better this run, but the shortwave down south was kind of disjointed and all over the place couldn't get its act together, its all good thoigh It wasn't a rainy cutter. And through some jacked up evolution we got the column right even though the southern stream was a garbled mess. It was a good run in a weird way that will change another 10 times before we have half a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Unicorn storm has returned on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6z looks a whole lot better for MLK weekend. Crazy 9 days to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 ...and obviously going to change a million times between now and game time, but a nice mix to snow long duration event between the 17th and 19th. 997 low that rots offshore while the big show comes from the south. Weird evolution lol.Block from heaven baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Lol. Another one on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 January 17 - 20 is our window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Unicorn storm has returned on the GFS I didn't even look at 0z so to me it was never gone. I had a feeling 0z said "WTF" to the 18z. 6z looks nice but its one level of suppression away from screwing half the forum...2 levels from screwing most of it. But I like our chances...I love our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Things look a touch more robust for the midweek event on the GFS. Not really saying much to go from a dusting to a half inch verbatim, but it's something. Actually not bad looking at Bufkit. Looks like snow growth will be just a hair off the best spot for it according to this run, but it's looking like our first potential accumulation could be well on its way if this were to materialize. The signal for a nice robust vort and strong PVA is looking more impressive each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6z has a weirdass surface evolution. But, such is life when you have a very complex s/w interaction between northern and southern streams. Don't expect the models to lock into one solution on this one anytime soon. If there's a storm, and it doesn't cut to the UP of Michigan, then that's a win for the next few days. 18z GFS-style pr0n is just a bonus. Bird-in-hand and all, I'm encouraged the models are getting more "bullish" on next Tuesday/Wednesday for a flizzard. 6z GFS has a nice vort pass for DC and points northward. P.S. That northern stream storm that might give us flurries or a dusting next week is critical to the Day 9/Wes storm, because it turns into that monster black hole over Nova Scotia that (hopefully) stops our unicorn from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6z has a weirdass surface evolution. But, such is life when you have a very complex s/w interaction between northern and southern streams. Don't expect the models to lock into one solution on this one anytime soon. If there's a storm, and it doesn't cut to the UP of Michigan, then that's a win for the next few days. 18z GFS-style pr0n is just a bonus. Bird-in-hand and all, I'm encouraged the models are getting more "bullish" on next Tuesday/Wednesday for a flizzard. 6z GFS has a nice vort pass for DC and points northward. it'll happen. I will be in Key West for work. it usually snows while I am gone. But I will be high tailing it home in time for the possible big show which would be a lock if I were gone at that time, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Actually not bad looking at Bufkit. Looks like snow growth will be just a hair off the best spot for it according to this run, but it's looking like our first potential accumulation could be well on its way if this were to materialize. The signal for a nice robust vort and strong PVA is looking more impressive each day. Kiad 1.png trough axis goes neg right as it swings by us. if there is a bit more energy at the base of that it could be a nice surprise for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 trough axis goes neg right as it swings by us. if there is a bit more energy at the base of that it could be a nice surprise for some. Yeah. I'm liking the look right now and I'm someone who likes to see what's in front of them and not go meandering into the future. I could see a few spots getting .25-1" if everything turns out perfectly. It's not a bomb by any means, but when you start with nothing, beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah. I'm liking the look right now and I'm someone who likes to see what's in front of them and not go meandering into the future. I could see a few spots getting .25-1" if everything turns out perfectly. It's not a bomb by any means, but when you start with nothing, beggars can't be choosers Any thoughts on how the ridges in western MD and WV (Oakland/Davis) could do with this event? I think during our little surprise clipper last January that area managed to snag 6-7 inches over a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Any thoughts on how the ridges in western MD and WV (Oakland/Davis) could do with this event? I think during our little surprise clipper last January that area managed to snag 6-7 inches over a short period. Haven't looked into much detail on those areas, but with a nice up-slope flow and 850 temps around -15 - -18C, I could see the ridges above 2500' getting 2-4" with 3-5" above 3,000'. The vort is pretty nice on both the GFS and Euro. Could very well be many's first accumulation of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 6z ggem gives about 2 hours of fairly heavy snow for northern MD Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Haven't looked into much detail on those areas, but with a nice up-slope flow and 850 temps around -15 - -18C, I could see the ridges above 2500' getting 2-4" with 3-5" above 3,000'. The vort is pretty nice on both the GFS and Euro. Could very well be many's first accumulation of the season. Awesome thanks for responding! I know the people who run the cross-country ski center up in Davis have been hurting big time because they are 100% dependent on natural snow, so hopefully this gets the ball rolling for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking at the EPS mean for Day 9-10, it doesn't appear that it has much of a storm in our area, if at all. Looks pretty suppressed. Maybe those with access can elaborate. Also, the GFS is really interesting so far this season. Obviously, one would not expect a lot of continuity at 9-10 days out, but also look at how different the weekend system is playing out vs. what was forecast at long range. It will be very interesting to see what the weather is actually like on Jan 17. Those in the know have been excited by the pattern, so I think we have reason to at least indulge in hope for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 BTW, what does the Euro show for the area early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking at the EPS mean for Day 9-10, it doesn't appear that it has much of a storm in our area, if at all. Looks pretty suppressed. Maybe those with access can elaborate. Also, the GFS is really interesting so far this season. Obviously, one would not expect a lot of continuity at 9-10 days out, but also look at how different the weekend system is playing out vs. what was forecast at long range. It will be very interesting to see what the weather is actually like on Jan 17. Those in the know have been excited by the pattern, so I think we have reason to at least indulge in hope for a storm. Yeah, eps must have a fair bit of spread given the look of the mean. 6Z gefs doesn't look great, but it has a strung out low on the coast. Better gefs consensus for the 21st actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The gfs for next weekend looks like the gfs of about a week ago for this weekend. A miller B. This weeks version turned into a GL cutter. I suppose the blocking is better for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 As much as I wish it was true, that 6z GFS 500mb evolution is a freaking joke. The huge block really messes with the evolution. You get that initial low that rides N and kind of putters out @ 240 hours, then you get another low that forms out in the Atlantic and destroys the rest of the NE @ 264 + hours. I guess it isn't 'impossible'...we've seen dual lows like January 2011 (my fav storm of all time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The details obv do not matter this far out. There are a few 6z GFS members that show a snowstorm, and all of them surprise surprise have a 50/50 low locked in. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah, eps must have a fair bit of spread given the look of the mean. 6Z gefs doesn't look great, but it has a strung out low on the coast. Better gefs consensus for the 21st actually. so we are back to 13 days away again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 The gfs for next weekend looks like the gfs of about a week ago for this weekend. A miller B. This weeks version turned into a GL cutter. I suppose the blocking is better for next weekend. This weeks version was modeled to be a Chicago/Iowa cutter just a few days ago. It is now modeled to be a Cincinnati cutter. That's quite a difference, and with a high to our northeast would have been a winter storm setup. That's what I've been saying about the GFS. Use at long range with caution. We are still very much in the game regardless of what it might show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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