Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 looks like the euro? Yea, to a tee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yea, to a tee Sarcasm? My limited euro looks like it would be a low to our west with CAD east of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Sarcasm? My limited euro looks like it would be a low to our west with CAD east of the Apps Yes....replying to his sarcasm, 18z GFS is a 10" snowfall for parts of VA 200-220 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z GFS will bring it back LOL I would not doubt this!!! Hey doesn't the 18z GFS have a bias of being a dry and southeast run or is this just one of those model hulcinations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like the winds are steering it farther nw on the nam at 84 hours. Is this being completely discarded because it's the nam at the end of range? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well, the Sunday threat is officially dead now. The JMA and NAVGEM are whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like the winds are steering it farther nw on the nam at 84 hours. Is this being completely discarded because it's the nam at the end of range? Just curious.image.jpeg The NAM at 84HR is like the GFS at 300HR. Useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If you go to the first few posts in this thread, I think the EURO map shows a big time hit for us on Sunday. Seems the EURO is not immune to the 10 day phantom snowstorm. I will throw in the towel on this Sunday after tonights 0z run if the trend continues for the storm to slide east. I really don't consider the 18z runs to be as accurate as the 0 and 12z runs for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If you go to the first few posts in this thread, I think the EURO map shows a big time hit for us on Sunday. Seems the EURO is not immune to the 10 day phantom snowstorm. I will throw in the towel on this Sunday after tonights 0z run if the trend continues for the storm to slide east. I really don't consider the 18z runs to be as accurate as the 0 and 12z runs for the GFS.[/quot Nott true...by I like where you are going with this..0z or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 If you go to the first few posts in this thread, I think the EURO map shows a big time hit for us on Sunday. Seems the EURO is not immune to the 10 day phantom snowstorm. I will throw in the towel on this Sunday after tonights 0z run if the trend continues for the storm to slide east. I really don't consider the 18z runs to be as accurate as the 0 and 12z runs for the GFS. I am 100% agreement with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The NAEFS has the close call sneaky southern slider for Sunday. MSLP shows a low off the NC coast at 96h and moves it ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 WxBell added additional maps for GEFS. I'll take #1 or #18 for the D9 threat, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is the 84 hr h5 NAM negative tilt? Just trying to learn the tilt stuff... nothing else lol... it looks like its neutral tilt at 78 when it crosses the Mississippi River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is the 84 hr h5 NAM negative tilt? Just trying to learn the tilt stuff.. nothing else Didn't look like it to Yoda. I thought at 78 it was more progressive than 18z at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is the 84 hr h5 NAM negative tilt? Just trying to learn the tilt stuff... nothing else lol... it looks like its neutral tilt at 78 when it crosses the Mississippi River Yoda, it's really easy. Just connect the dots at the lowest point of each isobar at the bottom of the vort and draw a line. If the line is 12 noon it's neutral. Morning is negative and afternoon is positive. 9am is usually associated with a phase and capture. And 2pm is usually associated with a sheared disaster. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is the 84 hr h5 NAM negative tilt? Just trying to learn the tilt stuff... nothing else lol... it looks like its neutral tilt at 78 when it crosses the Mississippi River No, that's a neutral trough. If you look at the image I edited below of the 84H NAM, the red line runs through the base of the trough. Since the line is vertical, the trough is neutral. The purple trough I drew is negative as you can see the green line running through it runs NW to SW. The light blue line in the southwest is running NE to SW, showing a positive trough. I think that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yoda, it's really easy. Just connect the dots at the lowest point of each isobar at the bottom of the vort and draw a line. If the line is 12 noon it's neutral. Morning is negative and afternoon is positive. 9am is usually associated with a phase and capture. And 2pm is usually associated with a sheared disaster. LOL. That makes sense... thank you. I will keep that in mind next time I look at the h5 charts ETA: And thanks nj2va as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 CORRECT No, that's a neutral trough. If you look at the image I edited below of the 84H NAM, the red line runs through the base of the trough. Since the line is vertical, the trough is neutral. The purple trough I drew is neutral as you can see the green line running through it runs NW to SW. The light blue line in the southwest is running NE to SW, showing a positive trough. I think that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EURO TO GFS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztVMib1T4T4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 No, that's a neutral trough. If you look at the image I edited below of the 84H NAM, the red line runs through the base of the trough. Since the line is vertical, the trough is neutral. The purple trough I drew is neutral as you can see the green line running through it runs NW to SW. The light blue line in the southwest is running NE to SW, showing a positive trough. I think that's right. Purple trough/green line is negative, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Purple trough/green line is negative, no? Oops, typo, yes that's negative...thanks for catching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yoda, you've heard the rule of thumb that you don't want a vort to go negative west of the MS. You may know this but for those who don't, the point where a vort or trough goes negative is also typically the same point a storm wants to really start gaining latitude. Too early and you get a west track. Other imortant factors determine how quick and how much latitude is gained (confluence, strength of hp, blocking etc). But when you see a neg tilt or close off west of the MS river it usually means big trouble for snow chances. The euro today was a prime example. It dug and closed off h5 way early and that sucker rolled right on up the ms valley. At range the euro has a habit of doing that so I didn't blink an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 THIS IS INTERESTING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely more amped up through 51hrs compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely more amped up through 51hrs compared to 18z.Comparing it to Nam at 72, GFS way stronger slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 84 hrs over JAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Doesn't look like the extra amplification is helping, just make the surface low further south, and less of a chance to come north ahead of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There's some northern stream energy sliding through even though the slp is unfavorable. Euro also has the ns energy. I guess a car topper could be considered a win either way. The PV dropping in is just too strong to have much if any chance for a good storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There's some northern stream energy sliding through even though the slp is unfavorable. Euro also has the ns energy. I guess a car topper could be considered a win either way. The PV dropping in is just too strong to have much if any chance for a good storm track. we have no luck or bad luck. We are good at saying next though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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