high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 On that page, what's labeled as 'GFS' *is* the 'GFSX'. I see the models... I also see the GFS... but I do not see the GFSX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Pretty sure that threat is not the one focused on. It's the shortwave afterwards on the 17th. The GEFS is pretty split but looks okay for that one.Wow Haha that clears up a ton of confusion. I was like, "are these people delusional?" My fault. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GEFS is pretty much 100% bad. The mean might look good but every single member that hugs the coast is too warm. The snowmaps are actually fairly illustrative of this.... Thats not even the right storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Could the GFS possibly be right for the 17-18th time frame given it has almost no support/very little support? Every once in awhile the GFS sniffs out a storm the Euro does not, but it's about a once in every 2-3 years sort of thing. My hunch right now is no. People think the GFS did well last year with the NYC blizzard that wasn't, but in reality it did not do well outside of that 100 square mile area, it sucked for all of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Every once in awhile the GFS sniffs out a storm the Euro does not, but it's about a once in every 2-3 years sort of thing. My hunch right now is no. People think the GFS did well last year with the NYC blizzard that wasn't, but in reality it did not do well outside of that 100 square mile area, it sucked for all of New England From what I've witnessed over the the years, this seems to be one of the those cases where the gfs is too far north and west and the euro is too far south and east. Last night's eps had a cluster of sub 1000mb lows off the coast of SC but they all move ene from there and don't pose any threat. My guess is the GFS keeps the storm but backs off on turning the corner and the euro op does the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Every once in awhile the GFS sniffs out a storm the Euro does not, but it's about a once in every 2-3 years sort of thing. My hunch right now is no. People think the GFS did well last year with the NYC blizzard that wasn't, but in reality it did not do well outside of that 100 square mile area, it sucked for all of New England Euro still generally did better on that event it just bungled the western edge for a while. Of course that didn't stop NOAA leaders from pretending it was a huge coup for the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I was able to make a few plots from the 12z GFSX (which hasn't finished running yet, so the graphics sites don't have it yet). It's pretty similar to the ops GFS, but it's a tad further east. Verbatim, it gives DC Metro under 0.10", but it certainly doesn't resemble the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro Ens pretty much split the the difference between the ops. They definitely favor a turn across the N FL but not close enough to impact pretty much anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I was able to make a few plots from the 12z GFSX (which hasn't finished running yet, so the graphics sites don't have it yet). It's pretty similar to the ops GFS, but it's a tad further east. Verbatim, it gives DC Metro under 0.10", but it certainly doesn't resemble the 12z ECMWF. That track is probably enough to give the area at least light snow with a low that strong. It's really not that much different than the 6z GFSx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro Ens pretty much split the the difference between the ops. They definitely favor a turn across the N FL but not close enough to impact pretty much anybody. None of the members are as far south as the op was but none are that great. Basically a line of stuff from FL to the NE at 12z Sun and then everything fairly well offshore after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 None of the members are as far south as the op was but none are that great. Basically a line of stuff from FL to the NE at 12z Sun and then everything fairly well offshore after. Yea, about what I expected tbh. It was a fun couple of hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Did the 12z EPS make any improvement in the Sunday storm compared to 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yea, about what I expected tbh. It was a fun couple of hours though. Trend from 0z on Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Trend from 0z on Euro ensembles? For all intents and purposes...no change. Didn't have the storm last night and doesn't have it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yea, about what I expected tbh. It was a fun couple of hours though. Closer look suggests that the ensembles don't support the op at all and look alot more like the UKIE. Which arguably is closer to the GFS camp at this point (Camp A is sipping tequila in Cuba and Camp B is in OBX). It's comparable to the 0z EPS, but the spread is pretty wide for this range. Unfortunately, a compromise solution here isn't enough to get anyone north of Richmond meaningful southern stream snow. We need the GFS to be correct with shortwave getting amped early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I was able to make a few plots from the 12z GFSX (which hasn't finished running yet, so the graphics sites don't have it yet). It's pretty similar to the ops GFS, but it's a tad further east. Verbatim, it gives DC Metro under 0.10", but it certainly doesn't resemble the 12z ECMWF. you are awesome. This is awesome. Your giving us output using the raw data before it is available publicly... no one else in my life would ever understand why this is so cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 happy to help; just don't expect it for every storm. you are awesome. This is awesome. Your giving us output using the raw data before it is available publicly... no one else in my life would ever understand why this is so cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12Z GFS/GEFS CAMP MORE QUICKLY EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAMENERGY DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPS A STRONGCOASTAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS UPTHE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AMPLE COLD AIR FEEDING INTO IT. THISCOULD OFFER A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO OUR AREA. LAST NIGHT`S00Z EC MEAN AND TODAY`S 12Z OPER ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THESOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WITH NO PHASING OR COASTAL LOW. INSTEADIT HAS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THESETUP OBSERVED TUESDAY. 12Z CMC/JMA ARE SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS AT 500MB BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND HAVE NO REAL COASTAL REFLECTIONEITHER. 12Z UKMET HAS A STRONG COASTAL LOW BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE.TELECONNECTIONS SHOW A STRONG -AO WITH A MODERATELY -NAO BOTHTRENDING ABRUPTLY POSITIVE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.HISTORICALLY THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE OUR GREATER CHANCE OF A WINTERSTORM...BUT THE CARDS STILL HAVE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACES.BOTTOM LINE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING BUTLARGE SPREAD PROHIBITS A FORECAST WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCEPOPS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Closer look suggests that the ensembles don't support the op at all and look alot more like the UKIE. Which arguably is closer to the GFS camp at this point (Camp A is sipping tequila in Cuba and Camp B is in OBX). It's comparable to the 0z EPS, but the spread is pretty wide for this range. Unfortunately, a compromise solution here isn't enough to get anyone north of Richmond meaningful southern stream snow. We need the GFS to be correct with shortwave getting amped early on. Has that (shortwave amplifying early) happened yet with a storm this winter (even if it was a rain storm)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Afternooon AFD from LWX very well written discussing Sunday potential: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCEDURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THESENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.12Z GFS/GEFS CAMP MORE QUICKLY EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAMENERGY DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPS A STRONGCOASTAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS UPTHE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AMPLE COLD AIR FEEDING INTO IT. THISCOULD OFFER A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO OUR AREA. LAST NIGHT`S00Z EC MEAN AND TODAY`S 12Z OPER ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THESOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WITH NO PHASING OR COASTAL LOW. INSTEADIT HAS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THESETUP OBSERVED TUESDAY. 12Z CMC/JMA ARE SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS AT 500MB BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND HAVE NO REAL COASTAL REFLECTIONEITHER. 12Z UKMET HAS A STRONG COASTAL LOW BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE.TELECONNECTIONS SHOW A STRONG -AO WITH A MODERATELY -NAO BOTHTRENDING ABRUPTLY POSITIVE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.HISTORICALLY THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE OUR GREATER CHANCE OF A WINTERSTORM...BUT THE CARDS STILL HAVE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACES.BOTTOM LINE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING BUTLARGE SPREAD PROHIBITS A FORECAST WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCEPOPS AT THIS TIME.REGARDLESS OF WHAT EVER TYPE OF STORM /OR LACK THEREOF/ DEVELOPSDURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIRWILL FOLLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE THE MOSTPROLONGED COLD OUTBREAK SO FAR THIS WINTER...WITH 850 MB TEMPSSTAYING BELOW 0 C FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXTWEEK. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVEDDURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S POSSIBLE MON-TUE AND LOWS INTHE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 FWIW (not much), the late hour NAM looks closer to the GFS than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 For anyone that follows Justin Berk on FB, he just posted an article from NOAA about the recent GFS upgrade (dated 1-11-16) Thinks this weekend is a good test to see if the GFS has indeed passed up the Euro. Fingers crossed, but I'm not holding my breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nam made a big jump with the placement of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NAM has snow across the region at 06z sunday, about 12 hours earlier than the GFS. So we have 2 out of 4 now, if you want to include the 84 hr. NAM as an actual model. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 For anyone that follows Justin Berk on FB, he just posted an article from NOAA about the recent GFS upgrade (dated 1-11-16) Thinks this weekend is a good test to see if the GFS has indeed passed up the Euro. Fingers crossed, but I'm not holding my breath... Once a weenie... Para GFS went the wrong way at 12z. Barely any precip into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Once a weenie... Para GFS went the wrong way at 12z. Barely any precip into DC. that model is just experimental anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Once a weenie... Para GFS went the wrong way at 12z. Barely any precip into DC. It isn't far though, only a blip to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Now imagine if the 18z GFS trends even more in our favor. People will not be able to just dismiss it and say "Its just the 18z GFS". This is because the storm has been trending so far and the 18z(if it continues the trend) will not be a blip. As long as it's not particularly supported (if at all) it's fair to call it an outlying solution and not likely to happen. I'm not sure anybody here will gain any more confidence if it trends a bit more in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NAM has snow across the region at 06z sunday, about 12 hours earlier than the GFS. So we have 2 out of 4 now, if you want to include the 84 hr. NAM as an actual model. LOL Not sure how this is "snow across the region"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Are we really hoping the GFS is right versus every other model? I'm not bashing it, but it's an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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