high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 mageval.ncep.noaa.gov The GFS on that page is the para. and where can we find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It has to wait its turn with all of the other NCEP development work being done on the supercomputer, so the time at which it gets into the queue can vary, but graphics for the 12z cycle on the magpara.ncep.noaa.gov site usually become available in the late afternoon. I went to the site... and click model guidance... I do not see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One thing is for certain, the GFS and Euro love this Day 10 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Sure. We get a dusting of snow Sunday afternoon. The end. I'm rooting for .10 so we can match 1997-1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One thing is for certain, the GFS and Euro love this Day 10 thing. The Euro loves it so much it closes off the low way too early for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Euro is a nice hit for the day 8-9 event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm rooting for .10 so we can match 1997-1998. me too....I got 0.00000001" last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Euro is a nice hit for the day 8-9 event! It's going hog wild with the vort. Closing it off and really amping. Color me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Euro loves it so much it closes off the low way too early for us. Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's going hog wild with the vort. Closing it off and really amping. Color me skeptical. the euro 10 day is as much a crapshoot as the gfs at 10 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm rooting for .10 so we can match 1997-1998. Looks like we'll stay below freezing today so we can ditch that as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 you don't see the GFS at all on that page? I didn't think that this site is limited to NCEP, but perhaps someone else can comment if they can see it. Or did you mean that you can't see the 12z cycle which hasn't finished running yet? I went to the site... and click model guidance... I do not see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the the only thing that block has done is block us from getting snow. This is the worst hour of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Anyone know, for sure, how well the EURO verifies in a super NINO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the the only thing that block has done is block us from getting snow. This is the worst hour of this winter 18z GFS will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the the only thing that block has done is block us from getting snow. This is the worst hour of this winter This is like the last couple years when it wanted to snow up and down the coast at times with the only exception being it's the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the euro 10 day is as much a crapshoot as the gfs at 10 5 day Fixed that for you Ji Sorry mitch didn't see your post till now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well, there could be 1.5 billion reasons to be happy tonight. Yeh, that would take the edge of this lousy winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nothing has been blocked or suppressed yet, just another offering which was a lakes cutter 2 days ago Today is snow making perfection, 30.2 Baro but no low. However, kept firing minor disturbances our way and they finally meet up with the 30.2 I am encourage about next 10-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Anyone know, for sure, how well the EURO verifies in a super NINO? I can tell you from the verification scores and talking with the medium range forecasters at WPC that the op EC hasn't been as good as one would expect over the last month, as it has quite often deviated significantly from the EC ens mean after day 4-5. The GFS was much better with the central U.S. snow (and heavy rainfall over the MS. Valley) around Christmas. TIFWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can this model be trusted? I am wondering because it looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I can tell you from the verification scores and talking with the medium range forecasters at WPC that the op EC hasn't been as good as one would expect over the last month, as it has quite often deviated significantly from the EC ens mean after day 4-5. The GFS was much better with the central U.S. snow (and heavy rainfall over the MS. Valley) around Christmas. TIFWIW. It's a double edged sword with the GFS when it comes to southern stream systems. In general it handles them better than the GFS, but occasionally it doesn't sample things as well over the pacific, hence why it is usually very good inside 72 hours but beyond that occasionally has hiccups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can this model be trusted? I am wondering because it looks amazing. that was last night's 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 that was last night's 0Z run I'm not sure you answered their question. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 you don't see the GFS at all on that page? I didn't think that this site is limited to NCEP, but perhaps someone else can comment if they can see it. Or did you mean that you can't see the 12z cycle which hasn't finished running yet? I see the models... I also see the GFS... but I do not see the GFSX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm not sure you answered their question. Lol I've been a weenie for a long time and have to admit I've never seen that model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GEFS is pretty much 100% bad. The mean might look good but every single member that hugs the coast is too warm. The snowmaps are actually fairly illustrative of this.... Here's the 90 hour total snow map And here are the 850mb temps at 66hours, the critical time when most of the precip heads in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So what happens if the 18z GFS comes even further NW with the Low. Do we have the best hour of winter again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 cough 1997/98 cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GEFS is pretty much 100% bad. The mean might look good but every single member that hugs the coast is too warm. The snowmaps are actually fairly illustrative of this.... Here's the 90 hour total snow map And here are the 850mb temps at 66hours, the critical time when most of the precip heads in.... Pretty sure that threat is not the one focused on. It's the shortwave afterwards on the 17th. The GEFS is pretty split but looks okay for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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