mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Good run. But like Bob said, if we could get a capture or just a tick more west, we'd have that 981 low right off of OC How I wish it could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This run was hawt (to use a hurricanejoshism). Ridge out west spiked nicely. Oh my. Signs came early. By hr72. Hmmm... Stoopid euro. It's destroying my soul right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This run was hawt (to use a hurricanejoshism). Ridge out west spiked nicely. Oh my. I wish the King would get on board. But the GFS must be on to something, right? It's not wavering. Neither is the parallel run. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Good run. But like Bob said, if we could get a capture or just a tick more west, we'd have that 981 low right off of OC maybe this is return of the GFS coup from the Feb 2006 storm that the euro didnt see for 3 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 An incredibly wimpy pecip shield to the west of a SLP that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 maybe this is return of the GFS coup from the Feb 2006 storm that the euro didnt see for 3 days later The good news is one of them is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I wish the King would get on board. But the GFS must be on to something, right? It's not wavering. Neither is the parallel run. We can hope. Probably beating a dead horse at this point but this is pehaps one of the more typical ways to get a snowstorm in a strong nino. Event blows up right in front and it follows into the cold air left behind.. plus the first becomes a 50/50ish feature. Block rotating down from Greenland to the west is also pretty classic. Need the Euro but this has the good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 An incredibly wimpy pecip shield to the west of a SLP that deep. It won't be when 0z shows a full capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nice...glad to see the ops GFS even more on board, now very similar to the GFS-x. Of course, as others have said, I really wish the Euro would move there too, and not just show us a nothing burger like it has thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited. HOLY **** IM EXCITED #ALLIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 About .5 QPF for DC, more towards eastern shore, less North and west would def piss off those of us up north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It won't be when 0z shows a full capture. Purples incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In the GFS world, this is exactly what we'd want to see. The parallel has a major upgrade to the data assimilation, and we'd hope that it might start to capture a tricky event like this sooner than the ops. Just need to get the 12z Euro to buy in. I wish the King would get on board. But the GFS must be on to something, right? It's not wavering. Neither is the parallel run. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Great improvement. Is Dec 2011 an analog where the GFS gave us snow on the models but the storm looped too far East? South of us and then northeast of us got hit while we were in the ripoff zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Jan 25 2000 had an interaction like the GFS is showing except obv it was a much deeper interaction. Wonder if we can get EURO on board....If so the GFSx will be my new fav model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In the GFS world, this is exactly what we'd want to see. The parallel has a major upgrade to the data assimilation, and we'd hope that it might start to capture a tricky event like this sooner than the ops. Just need to get the 12z Euro to buy in. What are the run times for the para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What are the run times for the para? mag eval starts populating about 6 hours after the regular op. The para gfs is a good tool to lift spirits after the euro destroys them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 About .5 QPF for DC, more towards eastern shore, less North and west would def piss off those of us up north... for the sunday event? Do you mean 0.05"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Has the 0z Parallel Euro come out yet? Seems like it is late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hope this turns out to be a DC and points south event. They more than deserve the take the prize. Hopefully the afternoon run of the Euro starts turning the corner...would bolster everyone's spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hope this turns out to be a DC and points south event. They more than deserve the take the prize. Hopefully the afternoon run of the Euro starts turning the corner...would bolster everyone's spirit. me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 for the sunday event? Do you mean 0.05"? Don't have the text output but looks like .2-.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In the GFS world, this is exactly what we'd want to see. The parallel has a major upgrade to the data assimilation, and we'd hope that it might start to capture a tricky event like this sooner than the ops. Just need to get the 12z Euro to buy in. Very true. I suppose it also would not be good to see the GFS-x on its own with that type of solution. The 12Z GFS ops took an even bigger step in the direction of the "x", just comparing it to the 06Z ops (which shunts the trough more to the east). It would be nice to see the upgrades "validated" right away with such a system. Of course, this could all easily "disappear" and be out to sea in the end, but for now we have to like this trend. And yes, again, if only the Euro would be on board. Even to show a nod in that direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 yes..the 6z Para GFS shows the best solution yet for sunday-monday. Can we quickly make this be the operational? Para gives us front end love with the d9-10 thing and then another coastal on the 27th. Model of the year nominee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Para gives us front end love with the d9-10 thing and then another coastal on the 27th. Model of the year nominee I bet the Para is actually the old GFS that gave us blizzards starting in October and a guaranteed 18z 384 blizzard no matter what the pattern was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 for the sunday event? Do you mean 0.05"? Mmm, maybe .2-.3? I think some of the ".5" i mentioned included anything falling prior. weatherbell has .2" for 24hr total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Don't have the text output but looks like .2-.3 on 6Z Para? yes...On 12z OP, maybe 0.15" but my maps could be off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can someone post the ukie when it comes out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Mmm, maybe .2-.3? I think some of the ".5" i mentioned included anything falling prior. weatherbell has .2" for 24hr total That makes sense..thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 on 6Z Para? yes...On 12z OP, maybe 0.15" but my maps could be off You're prob right. .25 contour just SE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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