usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's actually saying quite a bit...and even then it's not saying much. LOL You can always latch on the the 06Z parallel GFS which has us in over 0.25" with the temp being 33 but falling to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 NAM looks a whole lot like last night's Euro that gave us <.2" of rain. NAM is keeping the 2 storms separate and the GL Low is moving faster than the southern Low so that the cold front off the GL low pushes everything out to sea. A different scenario again that yields no snow. Yeah I've been saying it since last night. I do not like seeing the usually overly amped NAM at 84 be flat compared to the GFS and GFS para. I'm convinced the GFS caves today at some point. If not this is one of the GFS better scores in awhile. The euro getting schooled inside 100 hours is rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah I've been saying it since last night. I do not like seeing the usually overly amped NAM at 84 be flat compared to the GFS and GFS para. I'm convinced the GFS caves today at some point. If not this is one of the GFS better scores in awhile. The euro getting schooled inside 100 hours is rare 6Z GFS already did a major cave; by 12Z, all the miners will be dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You can always latch on the the 06Z parallel GFS which has us in over 0.25" with the temp being 33 but falling to 32. It's awful tough to latch onto to a non-operational model when it's the ONLY one showing something good. Gotta wait for the NAM before getting excited. Flipping through the euro ens members there are some that show the inv trough scenario on Sunday. It's an outside shot but seems reasonable with NS energy digging through and a lp off shore. Later down the line the vast majority showing a wedge/cad for next weekend. Many of the solutions with a west primary track have a workable column in our area. A winwxluvr special. Or may something accidentally gets underneath us with a good thermal profile. Nah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 check out the 00z GFS para for the 10 day storm. this might be the best model ever invented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 yes..the 6z Para GFS shows the best solution yet for sunday-monday. Can we quickly make this be the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 check out the 00z GFS para for the 10 day storm. this might be the best model ever invented From everything we've seen transpire this winter, I do think that period has the best ingredients overall for a measurable event. At least for now. We have wiggle room even if it goes west. Haven't seen that all year. I'm waiting for the discrete feature to show up that ruins it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 From everything we've seen transpire this winter, I do think that period has the best ingredients overall for a measurable event. At least for now. We have wiggle room even if it goes west. Haven't seen that all year. I'm waiting for the discrete feature to show up that ruins it. I am starting to believe this will happen because DT(chester,va) gets screwed. Thats an underrated element of a major winter storm that few people talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 From everything we've seen transpire this winter, I do think that period has the best ingredients overall for a measurable event. At least for now. We have wiggle room even if it goes west. Haven't seen that all year. I'm waiting for the discrete feature to show up that ruins it. the famous storm before blocking pattern breakdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 By hr72 or so you can see the gfs raising heights just a touch in front of the trailing vort compared to 6z. Heights in front of the NS ull less suppressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 im kind of glad the friday-saturday storm is a fail. It looks like the driest sub 990 Miller A of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 High pressure moving in a little quicker behind and the ULL is trying to go negative by 90. It sure is trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Heh, vort trying to go neg just east of the MS river. If nothing else, the gfs keeps the audience entertained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6Z GFS already did a major cave; by 12Z, all the miners will be dead 12z isn't caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Heh, vort trying to go neg just east of the MS river. If nothing else, the gfs keeps the audience entertained. the GFS/GFSx is either trolling us hard or the other models haven't a clue. The odds aren't in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 im kind of glad the friday-saturday storm is a fail. It looks like the driest sub 990 Miller A of all time. it's inching east.. maybe it'll miss entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The second wave tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 99 hours, we got precip on our doorstep. 993 right at ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 it's inching east.. maybe it'll miss entirely. the euro gave us less than a .10 inch from the coastal LOl #superelinowetblockingcoastalaftercoastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The second wave tho. Now we need need to figure out how it's going to get captured by the ns ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 988 over hatt. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 99 hours, we got precip on our doorstep. 993 right at ILM 0.25 contour tickeling Fredericksburg by 105...looks like the 6z PARA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the GFS/GFSx is either trolling us hard or the other models haven't a clue. The odds aren't in our favor 0z ukmet has the storm this is further west and stronger but gfs isn't by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 988 at Hatteras. Snowing in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Now we need need to figure out how it's going to get captured by the ns ull. One thing at time Bob. One thing at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 988 at Hatteras. Snowing in DC I estimate the outer death band to be draped over rockville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Good run. But like Bob said, if we could get a capture or just a tick more west, we'd have that 981 low right off of OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 700mb almost closed off over SE Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 lol 966 at the BM. Cape Cod gets a raking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Now we need need to figure out how it's going to get captured by the ns ull. This run was hawt (to use a hurricanejoshism). Ridge out west spiked nicely. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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