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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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NAM looks a whole lot like last night's Euro that gave us <.2" of rain. NAM is keeping the 2 storms separate and the GL Low is moving faster than the southern Low so that the cold front off the GL low pushes everything out to sea. A different scenario again that yields no snow.

Yeah I've been saying it since last night. I do not like seeing the usually overly amped NAM at 84 be flat compared to the GFS and GFS para. I'm convinced the GFS caves today at some point. If not this is one of the GFS better scores in awhile. The euro getting schooled inside 100 hours is rare

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Yeah I've been saying it since last night. I do not like seeing the usually overly amped NAM at 84 be flat compared to the GFS and GFS para. I'm convinced the GFS caves today at some point. If not this is one of the GFS better scores in awhile. The euro getting schooled inside 100 hours is rare

6Z GFS already did a major cave; by 12Z, all the miners will be dead      :cry:

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You can always latch on the the 06Z parallel GFS which has us in over 0.25" with the temp being 33 but falling to 32.  

 

It's awful tough to latch onto to a non-operational model when it's the ONLY one showing something good. Gotta wait for the NAM before getting excited. 

 

Flipping through the euro ens members there are some that show the inv trough scenario on Sunday. It's an outside shot but seems reasonable with NS energy digging through and a lp off shore. 

 

Later down the line the vast majority showing a wedge/cad for next weekend. Many of the solutions with a west primary track have a workable column in our area. A winwxluvr special. Or may something accidentally gets underneath us with a good thermal profile. Nah...

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check out the 00z GFS para for the 10 day storm. this might be the best model ever invented

 

From everything we've seen transpire this winter, I do think that period has the best ingredients overall for a measurable event. At least for now. We have wiggle room even if it goes west. Haven't seen that all year. I'm waiting for the discrete feature to show up that ruins it. 

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From everything we've seen transpire this winter, I do think that period has the best ingredients overall for a measurable event. At least for now. We have wiggle room even if it goes west. Haven't seen that all year. I'm waiting for the discrete feature to show up that ruins it. 

I am starting to believe this will happen because DT(chester,va) gets screwed. Thats an underrated element of a major winter storm that few people talk about

 

gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif

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From everything we've seen transpire this winter, I do think that period has the best ingredients overall for a measurable event. At least for now. We have wiggle room even if it goes west. Haven't seen that all year. I'm waiting for the discrete feature to show up that ruins it. 

the famous storm before blocking pattern breakdown?ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png

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