high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm just going to hug the 18z GFSX and call it a night. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm just going to hug the 18z GFSX and call it a night. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov where do you find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EURO looks like it will be too far N with that day 9-10 event. Looks a bit better than 12z though. I still feel like we're so close to something for the 2nd wave....Would really need something big to happen by 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hopefully Sunday night materializes into something.....at least something more than what we had tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EURO looks like it will be too far N with that day 9-10 event. Looks a bit better than 12z though. I still feel like we're so close to something for the 2nd wave....Would really need something big to happen by 12z though. even if it cuts, the day 9-10 event is probably some sort of wintry event. Snow to rain, or sleet or ice.....` Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm just going to hug the 18z GFSX and call it a night. mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Wow, that would be amazing. Wish the OP showed something like that damn...Honestly it looks meteorologically possible. Like it doesn't seem too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Off topic, but what is the GFSx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 even if it cuts, the day 9-10 event is probably some sort of wintry event. Snow to rain, or sleet or ice.....` Agreed, there is a decent wedge showing up on the mods....I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Off topic, but what is the GFSx?It's the parallel GFS going into effect in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's the parallel GFS going into effect in May. Looking at that 18z GFSx run the surface is actually an issue, which I guess makes sense with no HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At this point, much like we were talking about on dec 24 - we need another re-shuffle. While that pattern yielded the 70s, this one is yielding cutters and waves to the lakes just ahead of any potential for us that makes our resulting systems too warm. And it has been modeled and playing out that way for awhile now. We are not scoring under this setup, need to try something else. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At this point, much like we were talking about on dec 24 - we need another re-shuffle. While that pattern yielded the 70s, this one is yielding cutters and waves to the lakes just ahead of any potential for us that makes our resulting systems too warm. And it has been modeled and playing out that way for awhile now. We are not scoring under this setup, need to try something else. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol Unless you enjoy rain chances every few days. :-( If Sundays deal could just come up the coast though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I think, maybe, things will start changing. If you go to the link below and scroll down to the MJO plots from the Euro (on the left), you'll see how the Euro is putting the MJO into the circle of death after the 16th. As been discussed, this Niño has been different from most because of the presence of the strong MJO. With the MJO off the table, I can't help but think (and hope!) we'll get a more traditional Niño coastal storm pattern without such a strong Pacific flow. But since I'm no expert, it could go the other way I suppose though I don't see how our snow chances could decrease. Lol http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol stupid GL low just won't move. so nothing but rain for the friday/saturday system then our nice block moves out of the way allowing the low on sunday to just zip right out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol I hadn't even looked at it. Just more a comment on what we can now expect from this current atmospheric set-up. We've seen this play out enough now, with more of the same modeled, that I am perfectly content to wish for another set-up, because this one ain't working either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Cold in place for the 2nd wave but it's a fish storm. Remember ppl saying suppression was an issue at times in this pattern. Warm/wet, cold/dry is real right now. Maybe February will be better when the jet lifts back north and suppression is a little less of an issue in these cold shots. Or maybe the next run of the gfs will be a hit. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Cold in place for the 2nd wave but it's a fish storm. Remember ppl saying suppression was an issue at times in this pattern. Warm/wet, cold/dry is real right now. Maybe February will be better when the jet lifts back north and suppression is a little less of an issue in these cold shots. Or maybe the next run of the gfs will be a hit. HahaAs many times as the models have shown a decent southern storm this winter, you figure eventually one (or more) will come to fruition. And then watch this forum implode. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Isn't this mega-Nino acting pretty much just like those in the past have acted? So we shouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Isn't this mega-Nino acting pretty much just like those in the past have acted? So we shouldn't be surprised. Looks like a dead ringer for '97/'98 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like a dead ringer for '97/'98 at this point. Yeah definitely looking bad, but I'm not looking past the medium range for now. Hopefully something will just pop up in the day 4-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 even if it cuts, the day 9-10 event is probably some sort of wintry event. Snow to rain, or sleet or ice.....`Agreed. On the face it's easy to say a repeat of this weekend. But a key difference is a workable air mass or wedge scenario for at least a time. MSLP panels are showing a cad sig even at range. It will be interesting to see what happens this Sunday. Gfs/para gfs are steadfast with scraping us with the coastal. Euro is steadfast with the ns hammer keeping it way too far south and east. Otoh- the ns hammer on the euro could give us the biggest event of the year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Isn't this mega-Nino acting pretty much just like those in the past have acted? So we shouldn't be surprised. True, plus the most frequent analogs on the CPC superensemble D+11 over the past couple of weeks has been 1998 and 1983, neither produced much snow in January. Today's top two Euro North American based ensemble analogs were 1983 and 1998. Both were really strong ninos. 1958 has also been showing up to give hope to those who need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Agreed. On the face it's easy to say a repeat of this weekend. But a key difference is a workable air mass or wedge scenario for at least a time. MSLP panels are showing a cad sig even at range. It will be interesting to see what happens this Sunday. Gfs/para gfs are steadfast with scraping us with the coastal. Euro is steadfast with the ns hammer keeping it way too far south and east. Otoh- the ns hammer on the euro could give us the biggest event of the year. Lol a large number of the euro ensembles show some snow but looking at the surface patterns, they appear to be shearing the southern stream to our south and giving us light snow with the northern stream...none give over 2 inches and most give about an inch. I'm not on the GFS bandwagon but think we have a pretty good chance of topping last night's snow with the norhtern stream and arctic front. That's not saying much but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know its the NAM at 84... but at hr 84 on the 12z NAM, is the h5 energy neutral or going negative? I am trying to learn on that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know this isn't an area most people are interested in but the weekend event is looking interesting for the ski areas and higher elevations of eastern WV. It looks like most models agree on the slug of rain with the primary missing that area to the west, then as the primary dies it looks like maybe a rain-snow transition followed by upslope on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know its the NAM at 84... but at hr 84 on the 12z NAM, is the h5 energy neutral or going negative? I am trying to learn on that aspect. NAM looks a whole lot like last night's Euro that gave us <.2" of rain. NAM is keeping the 2 storms separate and the GL Low is moving faster than the southern Low so that the cold front off the GL low pushes everything out to sea. A different scenario again that yields no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Isn't this mega-Nino acting pretty much just like those in the past have acted? So we shouldn't be surprised. the mega Ninos have two groups, AN snow and way, way BN snow in that respect, we are obviously in the later group, but we still have 2 months of snow producing time (silver lining) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I know its the NAM at 84... but at hr 84 on the 12z NAM, is the h5 energy neutral or going negative? I am trying to learn on that aspect. I beleive its positive and kind of "washing out" Take a look at the GFS at 6z and notice it is more "kinked". Draw a line through the trough and for negative tilt, that line should be NW to SE and on the Nam its basically NE to SW. I could be wrong but this is my understanding as an armchair weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 think we have a pretty good chance of topping last night's snow with the norhtern stream and arctic front. That's not saying much but.... It's actually saying quite a bit...and even then it's not saying much. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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