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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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EURO looks like it will be too far N with that day 9-10 event. Looks a bit better than 12z though. I still feel like we're so close to something for the 2nd wave....Would really need something big to happen by 12z though. 

 

even if it cuts, the day 9-10 event is probably some sort of wintry event.  Snow to rain, or sleet or ice.....`

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At this point, much like we were talking about on dec 24 - we need another re-shuffle. While that pattern yielded the 70s, this one is yielding cutters and waves to the lakes just ahead of any potential for us that makes our resulting systems too warm. And it has been modeled and playing out that way for awhile now. We are not scoring under this setup, need to try something else.

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At this point, much like we were talking about on dec 24 - we need another re-shuffle. While that pattern yielded the 70s, this one is yielding cutters and waves to the lakes just ahead of any potential for us that makes our resulting systems too warm. And it has been modeled and playing out that way for awhile now. We are not scoring under this setup, need to try something else.

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Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol
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I think, maybe, things will start changing. If you go to the link below and scroll down to the MJO plots from the Euro (on the left), you'll see how the Euro is putting the MJO into the circle of death after the 16th. As been discussed, this Niño has been different from most because of the presence of the strong MJO. With the MJO off the table, I can't help but think (and hope!) we'll get a more traditional Niño coastal storm pattern without such a strong Pacific flow. But since I'm no expert, it could go the other way I suppose though I don't see how our snow chances could decrease. Lol

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

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Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol

 

stupid GL low just won't move. so nothing but rain for the friday/saturday system

 

then our nice block moves out of the way allowing the low on sunday to just zip right out to sea. 

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Something tells me the 6z gfs was a bad run lol

 

I hadn't even looked at it. Just more a comment on what we can now expect from this current atmospheric set-up. We've seen this play out enough now, with more of the same modeled, that I am perfectly content to wish for another set-up, because this one ain't working either.

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Cold in place for the 2nd wave but it's a fish storm. Remember ppl saying suppression was an issue at times in this pattern. Warm/wet, cold/dry is real right now. Maybe February will be better when the jet lifts back north and suppression is a little less of an issue in these cold shots. Or maybe the next run of the gfs will be a hit. Haha

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Cold in place for the 2nd wave but it's a fish storm. Remember ppl saying suppression was an issue at times in this pattern. Warm/wet, cold/dry is real right now. Maybe February will be better when the jet lifts back north and suppression is a little less of an issue in these cold shots. Or maybe the next run of the gfs will be a hit. Haha

As many times as the models have shown a decent southern storm this winter, you figure eventually one (or more) will come to fruition. And then watch this forum implode. Lol
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even if it cuts, the day 9-10 event is probably some sort of wintry event. Snow to rain, or sleet or ice.....`

Agreed. On the face it's easy to say a repeat of this weekend. But a key difference is a workable air mass or wedge scenario for at least a time. MSLP panels are showing a cad sig even at range.

It will be interesting to see what happens this Sunday. Gfs/para gfs are steadfast with scraping us with the coastal. Euro is steadfast with the ns hammer keeping it way too far south and east. Otoh- the ns hammer on the euro could give us the biggest event of the year. Lol

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Isn't this mega-Nino acting pretty much just like those in the past have acted? So we shouldn't be surprised.

 

True,  plus the most frequent analogs on the CPC superensemble D+11 over the past couple of weeks has been 1998 and 1983, neither produced much snow in January. Today's top two Euro North American based ensemble analogs were 1983 and 1998.  Both were really strong ninos.  1958 has also been showing up to give hope to those who need it. 

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Agreed. On the face it's easy to say a repeat of this weekend. But a key difference is a workable air mass or wedge scenario for at least a time. MSLP panels are showing a cad sig even at range.

It will be interesting to see what happens this Sunday. Gfs/para gfs are steadfast with scraping us with the coastal. Euro is steadfast with the ns hammer keeping it way too far south and east. Otoh- the ns hammer on the euro could give us the biggest event of the year. Lol

a large number of the euro ensembles show some snow but looking at the surface patterns,  they appear to be shearing the southern stream to our south and giving us light snow with the northern stream...none give over 2 inches and most give about an inch.  I'm not on the GFS bandwagon but think we have a pretty good chance of topping last night's snow with the norhtern stream and arctic front. That's not saying much but....

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I know this isn't an area most people are interested in but the weekend event is looking interesting for the ski areas and higher elevations of eastern WV.  It looks like most models agree on the slug of rain with the primary missing that area to the west, then as the primary dies it looks like maybe a rain-snow transition followed by upslope on Saturday.

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I know its the NAM at 84... but at hr 84 on the 12z NAM, is the h5 energy neutral or going negative?  I am trying to learn on that aspect.

NAM looks a whole lot like last night's Euro that gave us <.2" of rain. NAM is keeping the 2 storms separate and the GL Low is moving faster than the southern Low so that the cold front off the GL low pushes everything out to sea. A different scenario again that yields no snow.

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Isn't this mega-Nino acting pretty much just like those in the past have acted? So we shouldn't be surprised.

the mega Ninos have two groups, AN snow and way, way BN snow

in that respect, we are obviously in the later group, but we still have 2 months of snow producing time (silver lining)

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I know its the NAM at 84... but at hr 84 on the 12z NAM, is the h5 energy neutral or going negative?  I am trying to learn on that aspect.

I beleive its positive and kind of "washing out"  Take a look at the GFS at 6z and notice it is more "kinked".  Draw a line through the trough and for negative tilt, that line should be NW to SE and on the Nam its basically NE to SW.  I could be wrong but this is my understanding as an armchair weenie :weenie:

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