Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 183 hours there isn't much cold air around us because we couldn't get a HP to build with that pesky ULL in central Canada. However, that other ULL isn't budging so it will be interesting to see if it is still able to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 As DT would state, we have a Pamela Anderson situation at 174 hours with two ULL's sitting next to each other in Canada. Really need the one on the East to hold its position or that energy out west will cut. I thought so too, though getting kind of late to cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I thought so too, though getting kind of late to cut? My guess it shoots right through Cheseapeake then off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Things to take from this run regardless of what it does here on out. 1) The setup is consistent. The energy crashing into the Southwest is shown again 2) It looks like there is going to be a big ULL forming in SE Canada near the 50/50 position. How strong it is & where exactly it forms etc. will play a huge role to the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah it looks like it will be rain this run, but let's see where this goes, maybe a PARA Euro like track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 With that HUGE block @ 192 hours and the ULL in that position there would be no chance in hell that it would cut, evem if the 00z run shows it happening I would bet my life savings that it wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's my event and it's all I care about right now. It'd break the futility streak even with SnowTV. lol still at 132hrs away though. Night gents It too was once a unicorn storm so watch that wind of being 6" Baltimore NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 As DT would state, we have a Pamela Anderson situation at 174 hours with two ULL's sitting next to each other in Canada. Really need the one on the East to hold its position or that energy out west will cut. He normally also hates the GFS for winter storms outside of 84hrs. Not saying he is right or wrong. Just that he says it quite frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Might go boom for New England this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My question is how can you have such a nice track this time of year and still end up with that much rain? Qpf is a + in my book. eta: Look at that separation between 500mb and 1000mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My question is how can you have such a nice track this time of year and still end up with that much rain? Qpf is a + in my book. Super Ninos tend to do that. Same reason 1997-98 was so rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Very happy with this run regardless of the outcome. The 50/50 stayed true. That lobe that broke off mid way through the run and kind of meandered to central Canada kind of killed the cold air situation. Long way to go folks but this is def the best shot all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Miller b too are north this run so far. Maybe NE will catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My question is how can you have such a nice track this time of year and still end up with that much rain? Qpf is a + in my book. eta: Look at that separation between 500mb and 1000mb! extremely warm Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico pretty in addition to the El Nino you cannot have stale cold air masses in this pattern and slow moving storms the negative gives the atmosphere time to warm up and cold to erode away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My question is how can you have such a nice track this time of year and still end up with that much rain? Qpf is a + in my book. eta: Look at that separation between 500mb and 1000mb! Because of that weird ULL that breaks off of the PV. It is most likely wrong so it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Super Ninos tend to do that. Same reason 1997-98 was so rainyBut this super nino has a few pretty distinct differences from that one, does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Guys look @ the 500mb @ 147 hours. See that ULL near Manitoba? IMO if that piece was more phased with the PV as a whole & farther south we would of had a HP build in. Instead watch as it meanders Westward. Now watch the next few frames and underneath that ULL you get ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My question is how can you have such a nice track this time of year and still end up with that much rain? Qpf is a + in my book. People are way over thinking this looking at op runs. You could see that it wasn't going to work this time by hr 132-150 in the run. All the good stuff in 18z was gone in 0z. Just compare the h5 vort panels. Ull in canada slides east and isn't as impressive. Ridge pops in front of the vort in the middle of the conus and there is no more cold high pressure. The second you see that you know it's all downhill. Or uphill in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Guys look @ the 500mb @ 147 hours. See that ULL near Manitoba? IMO if that piece was more phased with the PV as a whole & farther south we would of had a HP build in. Instead watch as it meanders Westward. Now watch the next few frames and underneath that ULL you get ridging. That piece is also dangerous because it can phase in with the southern energy and cause a cutter. Thankfully it looks to me right now that the southern piece tracks too far south for it to ever phase in with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 People are way over thinking this looking at op runs. You could see that it wasn't going to work this time by hr 132-150 in the run. All the good stuff in 18z was gone in 0z. Just compare the h5 vort panels. Ull in canada slides east and isn't as impressive. Ridge pops in front of the vort in the middle of the conus and there is no more cold high pressure. The second you see that you know it's all downhill. Or uphill in this case Consequence of using instantweathermaps single layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Alert! GFS has more. eta: suppression lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So what you're saying is, if those elements you listed remain consistent, a rainy solution is pretty much impossible? (So we should be looking at the 50/50 low and such as the model runs get closer to the event?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Last frame pre-hecs? lmao look at that moisture plume! eta: would also be mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 On the serious side, storm systems are showing up. Everyone should get their shot at some play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That piece is also dangerous because it can phase in with the southern energy and cause a cutter. Thankfully it looks to me right now that the southern piece tracks too far south for it to ever phase in with that January 1966 this happened. We made out fine in that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The 16th-18th window certainly looks interesting...then again, we said the same for the 11-14th window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 On the bright side, 12Z euro had the system supressed though barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 On the bright side, 12Z euro had the system supressed though barely. A rainer then suppression and a 1'+ NC snowstorm.. would be... #superninoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 00z EURO @ 156 hours, the ULL in Canada is stronger & in a much better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Most guidance is now showing more than a flurry late tues into early Wed morn. Euro is a dusting. CMC is a half inch in the city and a 1.5 Mt parkton jack. Low passing to the N comes with typical issues. Best dynamics north and temps on return flow before precip are always a problem. But it's looking more likely as we move forward in time that we'll have our biggest event so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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