stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What are the implications of holding on to the vort longer? ? you mean the closed low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Still looks to be a bit too far east, but this was an interesting run Def does... looks lil better than 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It may just be me but the 00z GFS looks to be a trend in the wrong direction for the 18th. : And Storm tracker yes I mean the closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Friday-Saturday is dead... Sun afternoon into Mon morning is where its at Except that the Euro is probably right. I'm going with the ULLs are always slower than modeled weeniesm for now. But there's still so many waves there's no real time for amplification anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Awful..we always trend the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Except that the Euro is probably right. I'm going with the ULLs are always slower than modeled weeniesm for now. But there's still so many waves there's no real time for amplification anywhere. Yeah... I am hoping for a claven for the late this weekend storm... I bet EURO piques our interest in tonights run. We probably won't even know till Friday with all the s/w's around and all of the moving parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At the same time I gotta lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Getting pretty close for our chances at h5 amping up enough to keep the low close to the coast. It's been a long shot so far either way. If the gfs is right about the early storm, it's more evidence that it really doesn't want to snow anywhere on the east coast this winter. The words stubborn, consistent, and persistent come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Getting pretty close for our chances at h5 amping up enough to keep the low close to the coast. It's been a long shot so far either way. If the gfs is right about the early storm, it's more evidence that it really doesn't want to snow anywhere on the east coast this winter. The words stubborn, consistent, and persistent come to mind. The para euro seems to want to do something similar day 10 too...developing a low along the coast, and if you look at the h5 it would seem good, but there is no cold because of a lead wave into the lakes. Same setup again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At the same time I gotta lol. I mean come on already who in this forum has EVER SEEN a 971mb low in that position with rain all around it in all quadrants really.... I remember a low in April that bombed that low that sent the freezing line crashing through PHL and Media here 13 miles northwest of the city got 4" of snow in an hour with 55mph wind gusts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The para euro seems to want to do something similar day 10 too...developing a low along the coast, and if you look at the h5 it would seem good, but there is no cold because of a lead wave into the lakes. Same setup again.Now, what's causing this trend to repeat itself, though? Just bad luck or is it something to do with the Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Now, what's causing this trend to repeat itself, though? Just bad luck or is it something to do with the Nino? I think its definitely nino related. The pac jet is on roids and its blasting across the CONUS. Everytime it sends a vort across it raises the heights ahead of it and brings milder pac air with it. Both push the baroclinic zone north. It also interferes with the STJ developing and amplifying, and it pushes any high pressures out quickly. All of that interferes with our snow chances. As I have said before the reason for hope is the jet should relax some as we get later in winter naturally...maybe that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I also think the speed and frequency of these vorts coming across prevents anything from digging enough to get under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's nice to see the gfs d9 solution. Not remotely implying that it's correct but it is similar to some of the snowy euro ens solutions. Just enough hp to the north and enough dig to start things off in a better spot than MO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's nice to see the gfs d9 solution. Not remotely implying that it's correct but it is similar to some of the snowy euro ens solutions. Just enough hp to the north and enough dig to start things off in a better spot than MO etc.definitely a major improvement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I also think the speed and frequency of these vorts coming across prevents anything from digging enough to get under usSo perhaps a dry week without vorts (I assume you mean storms (Not quite versed in the terminology, lol) may help things? Or perhaps we need to get past the current pattern (as good as it normally is for us it's obviously not functioning the same way) and hope for a reset in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 correct The para euro seems to want to do something similar day 10 too...developing a low along the coast, and if you look at the h5 it would seem good, but there is no cold because of a lead wave into the lakes. Same setup again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's nice to see the gfs d9 solution. Not remotely implying that it's correct but it is similar to some of the snowy euro ens solutions. Just enough hp to the north and enough dig to start things off in a better spot than MO etc. Pretty ideal with the 500mb passage.. and an actual real ridge signal out west. The blocking configuration ('bootleg' or not) is too good up ahead to give up hope until it's forced upon you. And it seems the coastal train is coming alive. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 definitely a major improvement there. Anything that doesn't take a lead wave into the lakes or have a low tracking the lakes is an absolute must. Maybe we get a rusty horse shoe of luck thrown our way for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the models a few days ago showed negative tilt on the southern stream s/w over the Miss valley which is WHY the development of the PRIMARY Low reaches 992 mb and makes it as far North as BUF this the kiss of death -- especially with No hint of a COLD HIGH... and one of the reason I turned skeptical on Sunday I mean come on already who in this forum has EVER SEEN a 971mb low in that position with rain all around it in all quadrants really.... I remember a low in April that bombed that low that sent the freezing line crashing through PHL and Media here 13 miles northwest of the city got 4" of snow in an hour with 55mph wind gusts!!! I have many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z UKIE at 120... looks like a decent SLP position,... anyone have 108? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the models a few days ago showed negative tilt on the southern stream s/w over the Miss valley which is WHY the development of the PRIMARY Low reaches 992 mb and makes it as far North as BUF this the kiss of death -- especially with No hint of a COLD HIGH... and one of the reason I turned skeptical on Sunday I have many times Do you see any sign of the Jet relaxing and the ridge building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z UKIE at 120 00zUKIE1-13-16.gif I would surmise that gets NC good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z UKIE at 120... looks like a decent SLP position,... anyone have 108? 00zUKIE1-13-16.gif That's close enough to keep me interested but as is that's a good bit east of where we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z UKIE at 120... looks like a decent SLP position,... anyone have 108? 00zUKIE1-13-16.gif Good shortwaves have the crappiest timing this year. there's almost no chance that's anything but a fish bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z GEFS mean at 114: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I wonder if we can get that ULL over the Lakes to kind of tug and pull on the low in the SE....Ukie seems to show that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would surmise that gets NC good Idk it looks like it would have a very tight precip gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gefs actually looks really good for the d9-10 thing. Nice hp on the means and favored track is across the deep south and up the coast. I'm sure some discrete feature will screw it up but looks half decent at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gefs actually looks really good for the d9-10 thing. Nice hp on the means and favored track is across the deep south and up the coast. I'm sure some discrete feature will screw it up but looks half decent at range. I feel better with that event up north of 40N. I think it has a chance of being a classic snow to rain in NYC and Boston where they might get several inches before changing over but those events generally don't work out well in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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