WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Damn. High risk wasn't kidding. Para is interesting Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think the plain ole GFS is interesting. We are really close Fri night into Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GEFS mean not bad... 1002 SLP SE of HSE by about 200 miles... checking individ members now (re Sunday potential) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Did you guys really see now snow in January 2010? I remember there was a lull for a time but I swore there was at least 1 decent event in January There was the January 30 event that everyone remembers of course. But before the slight lull/thaw through the middle of the month, we did get a clipper in early January 2010 too, I recall. Not a lot of snow from that, but it wasn't zip either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not trying to be mean or anything but the first deal is so flawed that I'm not sure why you're so interested in it. Even with the 18z handing off earlier, the surface is cooked (freezing line in ny state) and 850's aren't really even close. I'm sure other levels have problems as well. The primary draws a huge bubble of warm air (relatively speaking) up the coast with no high pressure or confluence to resist it. It's a really bad setup. Even though it can trend colder there is virtually zero chance it will be a measurable snow event. Can't agree with you here. Of course we are all back yard specific, but 850's here are 1-2 max and the surface is between 30-35 on Sat morning. I do t necessarily think there's a good chance but it's much higher than virtually zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GEFS mean not bad... 1002 SLP SE of HSE by about 200 miles... checking individ members now Get that to tilt a bit more negative and we'd be in business; though we're entering the point where the OP is to be relied upon more than ensembles. But I guess with this setup where the models (and ensembles) have been adjusting, it's still good to check the individual members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Get that to tilt a bit more negative and we'd be in business; though we're entering the point where the OP is to be relied upon more than ensembles. But I guess with this setup where the models (and ensembles) have been adjusting, it's still good to check the individual members too. Agree... ensemble mean makes me think that there will be quite a few "hits" in the individs... I usually like to use the ensembles until we are about 3 days out from an "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think the plain ole GFS is interesting. We are really close Fri night into Sat Meh, the first threat is dead. Fully on the Bob train with that one. The second one is the one we should be looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Damn. High risk wasn't kidding. Para is interesting Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes, it certainly is! Gets pretty decent precip up this way (relatively speaking) and that low is definitely closer in and more intense. I'm mostly interested in the Friday/Saturday storm in terms of what impact it could have on this one, rather than getting some magical snow out of Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Meh, the first threat is dead. Fully on the Bob train with that one. The second one is the one we should be looking at. Haha....you and Bob go on down together then. I don't want to be taken the wrong way here, I'm not planning on sledding Saturday, but I completely disagree that it's dead. My opinion may change in about 6 hours tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Get that to tilt a bit more negative and we'd be in business; though we're entering the point where the OP is to be relied upon more than ensembles. But I guess with this setup where the models (and ensembles) have been adjusting, it's still good to check the individual members too. For Sunday? At this point I'd still think the ensembles have a bit more value than that. That's still more in the medium range. Though yes, the ops should be more useful than it would be farther out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 For Sunday? At this point I'd still think the ensembles have a bit more value than that. That's still more in the medium range. Though yes, the ops should be more useful than it would be farther out. Whoops, I think I'm getting my days confused with all these potential threats we're tracking. Since this one isn't until Sunday, I'd agree that ensembles are probably still better right now. But I thought once we're about 4 days out, the OP is favored so maybe tomorrow's 18z/Thursday 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Whoops, I think I'm getting my days confused with all these potential threats we're tracking. Since this one isn't until Sunday, I'd agree that ensembles are probably still better right now. But I thought once we're about 4 days out, the OP is favored so maybe tomorrow's 18z/Thursday 0z. No problem, it was a bit confusing to me as well. Even the Sunday one is "on the fence" in terms of medium range, being ~5 days out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 On the individ ensembles at 120, I will take p017 to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GEFS mean not bad... 1002 SLP SE of HSE by about 200 miles... checking individ members now (re Sunday potential) 18zGEFSmeanhr102forSunday.gif That's only a little closer than the operational. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160112+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 This is P017. Enjoy (Image before was from the 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This is P017. Enjoy (Image before was from the 12z)I would settle for #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would call lower 40s and rain 7:00am January 16th and a 988mb low due east preety unlucky for this time of year. Everything I'm looking at shows a great track but not the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would settle for #2. I can see why ETA: Omg. Next frame from P017 Hour 126. Now imagine if this is what the 00z OP GFS looks like. p17F126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Some of those ensembles are really blowing up the coastal low on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can't agree with you here. Of course we are all back yard specific, but 850's here are 1-2 max and the surface is between 30-35 on Sat morning. I do t necessarily think there's a good chance but it's much higher than virtually zero. I just looked at the text output and you're right it is a lot closer than I thought. Not sure but this may be as close as it will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The NAM at 84 hours over Texas at 500 is fairly weak for NAM standards at 84 hours when there is a model showing a strong system developing at 120. The NAM depiction right now strongly argues to me the GFS is going to be wrong, but it's just one piece of evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The NAM at 84 hours over Texas at 500 is fairly weak for NAM standards at 84 hours when there is a model showing a strong system developing at 120. The NAM depiction right now strongly argues to me the GFS is going to be wrong, but it's just one piece of evidence.It seems to be a weak wave in bedded in the large circulation centered in southern Canada. Otoh, it is the NAM at 84 hours, a model whose reanalysis of past events can't be trusted. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18z GFS had 1966 in the top few for d8 centered at CPC. Then again 18z GFS is usually wandering drunkenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Of course, 0z GFS continues to show the weekend deal dead...but also shows the trailing vort still there so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Of course, 0z GFS continues to show the weekend deal dead...but also shows the trailing vort still there so far Friday-Saturday is dead... Sun afternoon into Mon morning is where its at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The NAM at 84 hours over Texas at 500 is fairly weak for NAM standards at 84 hours when there is a model showing a strong system developing at 120. The NAM depiction right now strongly argues to me the GFS is going to be wrong, but it's just one piece of evidence. To suggest the NAM at 84 hours argues for anything other then the possible insanity of the one looking at it, is kinda silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 To suggest the NAM at 84 hours argues for anything other then the possible insanity of the one looking at it, is kinda silly Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS just won't let go of this strong trailing vort. Still closed at 90 hours. ETA: opens up at 93, but still pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 SLP over New Orleans at 96... was south of NO at 102 on 18z ETA: def move north of SLP position when comparing 00z 99 to 18z 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Still looks to be a bit too far east, but this was an interesting run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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