Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS improving all around at 500mb and surface. love it. everyone the past few days here has been looking too far in advance when there is 2 threats so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Check out the 12z para @ 129 Damn. High risk wasn't kidding. Para is interesting Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Norlun over SNE still Dumping at 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS improving all around at 500mb and surface. love it. everyone the past few days here has been looking too far in advance when there is 2 threats so close. I'm not trying to be mean or anything but the first deal is so flawed that I'm not sure why you're so interested in it. Even with the 18z handing off earlier, the surface is cooked (freezing line in ny state) and 850's aren't really even close. I'm sure other levels have problems as well. The primary draws a huge bubble of warm air (relatively speaking) up the coast with no high pressure or confluence to resist it. It's a really bad setup. Even though it can trend colder there is virtually zero chance it will be a measurable snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not trying to be mean or anything but the first deal is so flawed that I'm not sure why you're so interested in it. Even with the 18z handing off earlier, the surface is cooked (freezing line in ny state) and 850's aren't really even close. I'm sure other levels have problems as well. The primary draws a huge bubble of warm air (relatively speaking) up the coast with no high pressure or confluence to resist it. It's a really bad setup. Even though it can trend colder there is virtually zero chance it will be a measurable snow event. Agree... I wonder though if we can get the coastal going earlier for the first "storm"... then we can use that as a pseudo 50-50 low and have the second SLP (Sunday one) come up the coast with some colder air in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not trying to be mean or anything but the first deal is so flawed that I'm not sure why you're so interested in it. Even with the 18z handing off earlier, the surface is cooked (freezing line in ny state) and 850's aren't really even close. I'm sure other levels have problems as well. The primary draws a huge bubble of warm air (relatively speaking) up the coast with no high pressure or confluence to resist it. It's a really bad setup. Even though it can trend colder there is virtually zero chance it will be a measurable snow event. Once again all depends on your location. south of 70 forget it but north can have a cold trend and stand a chance. just like now. northern counties are much colder and have been all day then the cities and south of 70. i never cracked 38 in bel air meanwhile Martins is 43. GFS has my temp around 36 with precip. not asking much to drop it 4 more degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Once again all depends on your location. south of 70 forget it but north can have a cold trend and stand a chance. just like now. northern counties are much colder and have been all day then the cities and south of 70. i never cracked 38 in bel air meanwhile Martins is 43 I don't disagree with that be we are talking about PHI-NYC needing a lot of help still and quite an unlikely event for them. I applaud your diligence with vort tracking and run over run shifts but at this point I'm not seeing any chance whatsoever for MD or even most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Agree... I wonder though if we can get the coastal going earlier for the first "storm"... then we can use that as a pseudo 50-50 low and have the second SLP (Sunday one) come up the coast with some colder air in place Watch Sunday Night Jan 17th folks remember polar front limps through then arctic front comes while the low to our south rides NNE along the Polar front and explodes Arctic front pulled into a phased system not far fetched! it is complex but what is hiding behind the bubble of warmth that is brought up by the primary is there a larger storm that develops on the Arctic front near the coast to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't disagree with that be we are talking about PHI-NYC needing a lot of help still and quite an unlikely event for them. I applaud your diligence with vort tracking and run over run shifts but at this point I'm not seeing any chance whatsoever for MD or even most of PA. Fair enough but i wont ignore a cold trend either.GFS has my temp coldest its been the past 10 runs. Still a chance for a high to build as the northern now Dies. Just gotta die faster and the trend is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Once again all depends on your location. south of 70 forget it but north can have a cold trend and stand a chance. just like now. northern counties are much colder and have been all day then the cities and south of 70. i never cracked 38 in bel air meanwhile Martins is 43. GFS has my temp around 36 with precip. not asking much to drop it 4 more degrees. Borrowing this picture from famartin's snowstorm page-- the surface obs from Nemo were in the low 30's (33 or 34 F) and plain rain all around the region associated with the coastal low. I'm sure if people just looked at DCA observations, they would have assumed it was snowing somewhere north or northwest of there. There are some setups where it's just not snow, and it's not because of the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't disagree with that be we are talking about PHI-NYC needing a lot of help still and quite an unlikely event for them. I applaud your diligence with vort tracking and run over run shifts but at this point I'm not seeing any chance whatsoever for MD or even most of PA. Not even Garrett county? The 12z Euro almost makes me want to go to Wisp this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Borrowing this picture from famartin's snowstorm page-- the surface obs from Nemo were in the low 30's (33 or 34 F) and plain rain all around the region associated with the coastal low. I'm sure if people just looked at DCA observations, they would have assumed it was snowing somewhere north or northwest of there. There are some setups where it's just not snow, and it's not because of the boundary layer. Only difference is The GFS kills the primary near entirely. its pretty much all coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not even Garrett county? The 12z Euro almost makes me want to go to Wisp this weekend Friday night looks ok for some synoptic stuff then followed with some upslope for the remainder of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Only difference is The GFS kills the primary near entirely. its pretty much all coastal It kills the primary but you have to take into consideration how much damage is already done by the time it dies and there is nothing to repair it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Only difference is The GFS kills the primary near entirely. its pretty much all coastalAbsolutely the only chance is if it goes nuclear bomb off Norfolk and becomes triple stacked so that heights crash and uvv's are strong enough to levitate JI's lowbrows (sorry JI, I couldn't resist!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maybe we can slow the closed ULL down more... not too uncommon. That might help on both ends tho we still need a lot of work on the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It kills the primary but you have to take into consideration how much damage is already done by the time it dies and there is nothing to repair it. What if primary low tracked a few hundred miled west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Friday night looks ok for some synoptic stuff then followed with some upslope for the remainder of the weekend. You think maybe the Oakland --> Davis --> Snowshoe axis has a chance to get some synoptic snow from this? Looks like they will be marginal but perhaps elevation can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What if primary low tracked a few hundred miled west? Someone would have to talk the 1016 hp into performing like a 1026 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You think maybe the Oakland --> Davis --> Snowshoe axis has a chance to get some synoptic snow from this? Looks like they will be marginal but perhaps elevation can help. It's tight but looks pretty good right now. That general area looks to get 6-10" through Monday. Snowshoe will probably be the winner if I had to guess. Just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Someone would have to talk the 1016 hp into performing like a 1026 one. 1016 hp? If it drops a few millibars maybe it will develop counter clockwise circulation and help us out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 1016 hp? If it drops a few millibars maybe it will develop counter clockwise circulation and help us out that way.wasn't pd3 a 1012 low ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Both Euro and gfs have a sub 985 low ese of usright now ...that's pretty freakin stout with both showing a deform band of sorts around hour 90. My wag is if this trends any stronger the column would crash quickly and rain would change to snow esp n/w of the metros. Maybe a quick accumulation if we're lucky. This threat is no way dead . Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 wasn't pd3 a 1012 low ? PD3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 wasn't pd3 a 1012 low ?It was a little colder then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think everyone should root on the Sunday threat... am thinking that a faster coastal development with the 1st low would help us with the Sunday low's track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Couldn't agree more. Nick, its not going to snow lol. You'll find snow anyway you can my friend. Best you listen to Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think everyone should root on the Sunday threat... am thinking that a faster coastal development with the 1st low would help us with the Sunday low's trackToo bad the euro looks like poo. It's a explosive setup if it came together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Too bad the euro looks like poo. It's a explosive setup if it came together right. We need to score a coup just like SNE did with Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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