BTRWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was posting about the Sun-Mon possibility. Support has been really weak for that and today is virtually non-existent. OTOH- there are a lot more front enders, TN valley jumpers, and coastals for the d10-11 threat that I would have thought. I ran the members and there's plenty with at least an OK cold hp and half decent antecedent airmass. GEFS says rain for sure but the eps says not so fast. There's the Bob Chill we all know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 So why should we sweat it if they show no snow? An argument could be made that we should be happy about that. If we lived in an area where snow was common then I would agree with you. But we don't. It's one thing to show no snow in northern new england or the rockies but there is value in regions like ours. So far there has never been an overwhelming signal for snow at any range. Not one single time. Sure, there have been hints and carrots but not one single time has there been a strong enough signal at short enough range to start getting real hopes up. IMO- a strong singal when you see least 50% agreement with ops and ensembles inside of 7 days that holds for more than 1 run. We haven't seen that one single time and we haven't seen 1 single inch either. When ensembles show limited to no chance they are usually right way more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was posting about the Sun-Mon possibility. Support has been really weak for that and today is virtually non-existent. OTOH- there are a lot more front enders, TN valley jumpers, and coastals for the d10-11 threat that I would have thought. I ran the members and there's plenty with at least an OK cold hp and half decent antecedent airmass. GEFS says rain for sure but the eps says not so fast. just look at the day 11 h5 and you will see why. It's a very good look. Of course it's day 11 so...As for the comments that the ensembles are bad they weren't that off for the pattern. We did get blocking and there is a trough and cold shot coming. The storm isn't even that far off track wise but that pv split killed us and that's not a detail ensembles will nail 10 days out. We got some bad luck when we needed good luck. That's all. People are overthinking things a bit I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not to abuse the analogs, but how many moderate-super nino years do we have to look at to find a meaningful mid atlantic snowfall in January? 1973 - no 1983 - no 1998 - no 2003 - no 2010 - no 2016 - ? Was 1987 a moderate nino? Seems maybe we have to go back even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 We got some bad luck when we needed good luck. That's all. People are overthinking things a bit I think. I made a similar post earlier. All we do here is identify windows that are real. This weekend certainly was an opportunity. It just didn't work out. Long lead discussion and absolutes with sensible wx are far from the same thing. We go through this every year. Expectations become unrealistic at times when interpreting what is said about long range. Ensembles did a really good job at range with the general long wave anomaly placement that we are currently experiencing. Heck, they did an excellent job imo. Things don't work out with snow quite often. It's always been that way. And that's a big reason why I'm patient and don't care much when we fail...well, except for March 2013. That will forever make me want to kick things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 just look at the day 11 h5 and you will see why. It's a very good look. Of course it's day 11 so... As for the comments that the ensembles are bad they weren't that off for the pattern. We did get blocking and there is a trough and cold shot coming. The storm isn't even that far off track wise but that pv split killed us and that's not a detail ensembles will nail 10 days out. We got some bad luck when we needed good luck. That's all. People are overthinking things a bit I think. at least we are not at 10 days anymore. We are at 11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 When do we start to accept this is a replay of '97/'98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I made a similar post earlier. All we do here is identify windows that are real. This weekend certainly was an opportunity. It just didn't work out. Long lead discussion and absolutes with sensible wx are far from the same thing. We go through this every year. Expectations become unrealistic at times when interpreting what is said about long range. Ensembles did a really good job at range with the general long wave anomaly placement that we are currently experiencing. Heck, they did an excellent job imo. Things don't work out with snow quite often. It's always been that way. And that's a big reason why I'm patient and don't care much when we fail...well, except for March 2013. That will forever make me want to kick things. we are a snowtown man after 09-10, Jan 2011 storm, 13-14,14-15. We are not acting one like now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 we are a snowtown man after 09-10, Jan 2011 storm, 13-14,14-15. We are not acting one like now #34 agrees. Let's just lock that up and patiently wait for the Feb HECS train...choo choo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I made a similar post earlier. All we do here is identify windows that are real. This weekend certainly was an opportunity. It just didn't work out. Long lead discussion and absolutes with sensible wx are far from the same thing. We go through this every year. Expectations become unrealistic at times when interpreting what is said about long range. Ensembles did a really good job at range with the general long wave anomaly placement that we are currently experiencing. Heck, they did an excellent job imo. Things don't work out with snow quite often. It's always been that way. And that's a big reason why I'm patient and don't care much when we fail...well, except for March 2013. That will forever make me want to kick things. Agree. Eps is the most bullish for that day 10-12 threat then they have been all year. Mean is 3.5" Dca and about 4.5 out towards leesburg and up my way. That's a significant jump up and it's all from that 2 day window so that's by far the most it's jumped on one storm yet.Eta: I see you saw one of the nice looking members above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not to abuse the analogs, but how many moderate-super nino years do we have to look at to find a meaningful mid atlantic snowfall in January? 1973 - no 1983 - no 1998 - no 2003 - no 2010 - no 2016 - ? Was 1987 a moderate nino? Seems maybe we have to go back even further. Pretty much just 1966 of the fully accepted strong ninos since 1950, and it was at the end of the mo. 1988 and 1992 are also considered strong by a number of people, they had a 6.3 and a 4 respectively in DC as top end in Jan. 1987 is a mod, was decent. 2003 had a bit. 2010 at the end of the mo. 1995 had a 3.9 but it's considered a weak traditionally. Safe to say Jan not a great mo overall in mod/strong, at least in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 #34 agrees. Let's just lock that up and patiently wait for the Feb HECS train...choo choo no34.JPG #34.JPG Quick glance at members shows about 10 flush hits (6"+) some really nice 12+ in those too, and about 10 get us on the boards 2-4" type storms. So about 20/50 have a decent snow. That's decent odds and 1/5 having a major event is definitely a signal that bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not to abuse the analogs, but how many moderate-super nino years do we have to look at to find a meaningful mid atlantic snowfall in January? 1973 - no 1983 - no 1998 - no 2003 - no 2010 - no 2016 - ? Was 1987 a moderate nino? Seems maybe we have to go back even further. Did you guys really see now snow in January 2010? I remember there was a lull for a time but I swore there was at least 1 decent event in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Did you guys really see now snow in January 2010? I remember there was a lull for a time but I swore there was at least 1 decent event in January Most of the month no but Jan 30 put DC/Balt and south above normal for the mo at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty much just 1966 of the fully accepted strong ninos since 1950, and it was at the end of the mo. 1988 and 1992 are also considered strong by a number of people, they had a 6.3 and a 4 respectively in DC as top end in Jan. 1987 is a mod, was decent. 2003 had a bit. 2010 at the end of the mo. 1995 had a 3.9 but it's considered a weak traditionally. Safe to say Jan not a great mo overall in mod/strong, at least in DC. I chuckled at "1987- was decent." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 When do we start to accept this is a replay of '97/'98? How does anyone know until we get through the first two thirds of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'd still watch the period after the first event tho oddly enough we almost have too much spacing now. Tho arguably the second wave in that series is the one that gets shunted out early week by the big lakes ULL moving out. Still think there's something to a two storm punch in strong Ninos. Get the first to run up the 50/50 zone while leaving a trail behind for the second. Maybe the one after the 10 day one. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I chuckled at "1987- was decent." at least one step above meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 .NOW...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTONMETROPOLITAN REGION BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM. A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLWILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING I-95 BETWEEN 6 AND 7PM. EXPECT NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH THIS SQUALL. UP TO AQUICK QUARTER-INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EVERYONEWILL RECEIVE SNOW. ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TODAY WILL TURN ICYTONIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE ROADS DRIVING LATE TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow band pushing into harford county has already left snow on the ground near the PA line. here we go! http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=a5ffabd8008200d30050fa36c4235c0a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow band pushing into harford county has already left snow on the ground near the PA line. here we go! http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=a5ffabd8008200d30050fa36c4235c0a http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47512-january-2016-short-termobs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You know, the payoff for all of us and if it could happen would be a massive storm.. Would be something like what happen in Chicago a few years ago. Check this video out. I'm pretty sure everyone remembers the lightning and thunder that occurred... But thats the kind of storm that would make up for this season... Then here's another - Sanford, NC (3/3/10) So, hopefully, we'll get a huge one if and when get cut down on so many of these waves moving across the US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hmm.... 18z GFS at 87 and 90 only has the secondary SLP... no primary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Man the GFS is tantalizing. If only we had a nice HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS finally went full coastal. just need some cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS is not really to warm. tons of time still to improve this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GFS really trying at 114 and 117... just a lil too late for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GFS really trying at 114... Check out the 12z para @ 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS is close at 117hrs. There's a front moving through PA that might give us snow even if the storms too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Check out the 12z para @ 129 Lock it up Once again, ensembles should be interesting... I am willing to be that there will be more "hits" on the 18z GEFS individ enembles this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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