Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 So I'm just wondering....What went wrong here that the models couldn't see? Was it the lack of high pressure (and what happened to it and why isn't it there?) It's pretty simple. When things looked good there was cold hp dropping down and a nice 50/50 low. Then models locked into the pv splitting a piece off in central canada. This feature is basically a block for hp to drop down. Without the high pressure there is nothing to stop a cut as the vort amplifies. One little feature = failure. There's no way models will ever get small scale features like this at range. Bad luck for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the Friday night Storm keeps getting colder and colder. Now euro has a cold rain with highs in the mid 30's for leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hard to argue with this, but one thing arguing against this idea being a total one-cycle GFS fantasy is that the GFSX in both the 00 and 06z cycles (12z not available yet) did what the 12z ops GFS did with that second wave. Its surface reflection in both of those runs looks much healthier than what the 12z ops GFS did. Yup, just saw that. And of course it'll be right. The GFS thing was probably a blip and we'll be gone on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hard to argue with this, but one thing arguing against this idea being a total one-cycle GFS fantasy is that the GFSX in both the 00 and 06z cycles (12z not available yet) did what the 12z ops GFS did with that second wave. Its surface reflection in both of those runs looks much healthier than what the 12z ops GFS did. oh? That's at least encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the Friday night Storm keeps getting colder and colder. Now euro has a cold rain with highs in the mid 30's for leesburg Maybe there is at least some hope for the far NW burbs and a changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the Friday night Storm keeps getting colder and colder. Now euro has a cold rain with highs in the mid 30's for leesburg The highs have had the trend of overdoing predictions so far this winter even if absent any cold air. Most model portrays have show lots of pesky minor lows all in the wrong places but I think they are not picking up on the trend of the season. Well placed lows are almost a dime a dozen-we must have some high somewhere. A well placed low will mitigate how influential the high must be but a very well placed low will not eliminate the need for the high. We do not snow here when at onset the baro is 29.90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 my daily glance at the 3 ensemble snow output shows we totally lost any signal we had. Mean snowfall is now down under 1/2" for the GFS. Thats basically as bad as it can get for a 15 day period during peak climo. GGEM shows nothing through 192 and and last nights EPS was down around 1.5" after several runs in the 3-4" range. That 1.5 is inflated by a handful of 10"+ members while the vast majority show a shutout. Our window looks more like a brick wall right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the Friday night Storm keeps getting colder and colder. Now euro has a cold rain with highs in the mid 30's for leesburg Ive been silently watching that trend better for the last 48 hours ever since it fell apart. The h5 actually is a pretty good pass now but the cutter in front destroys our surface and mid level temps. Then its difficult to get it back. Its getting close though, another 2-3 degree adjustment and it might mean something, but I am not sure how much more we can expect, the SLP track of the secondary is almost perfect now. We may be about maxed out, sure if it bombs down to like 970 before passing Ocean City perhaps but thats expecting a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ive been silently watching that trend better for the last 48 hours ever since it fell apart. The h5 actually is a pretty good pass now but the cutter in front destroys our surface and mid level temps. Then its difficult to get it back. Its getting close though, another 2-3 degree adjustment and it might mean something, but I am not sure how much more we can expect, the SLP track of the secondary is almost perfect now. We may be about maxed out, sure if it bombs down to like 970 before passing Ocean City perhaps but thats expecting a bit much.I suppose it could end here as hour or 2 of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ive been silently watching that trend better for the last 48 hours ever since it fell apart. The h5 actually is a pretty good pass now but the cutter in front destroys our surface and mid level temps. Then its difficult to get it back. Its getting close though, another 2-3 degree adjustment and it might mean something, but I am not sure how much more we can expect, the SLP track of the secondary is almost perfect now. We may be about maxed out, sure if it bombs down to like 970 before passing Ocean City perhaps but thats expecting a bit much. this is probably the most disappointing event in a few years for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hard to argue with this, but one thing arguing against this idea being a total one-cycle GFS fantasy is that the GFSX in both the 00 and 06z cycles (12z not available yet) did what the 12z ops GFS did with that second wave. Its surface reflection in both of those runs looks much healthier than what the 12z ops GFS did.What is the GFSX?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the euro has no precip next week for us. its looking as bleak as can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the euro has no precip next week for us. its looking as bleak as can be Look on the bright side. Feb has 29 days this year. We probably have the first couple weeks of March too. Back loaded Nino winter ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nws just issued special statement about snow showers and winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 this is probably the most disappointing event in a few years for me it was a punch to my gut as well... but wasn't the first and wont be the last. Going ahead I don't think the pattern is as completely hostile as it could be. The day 10 thing is probably a cutter but beyond that as the upper level ridge seems to want to build into NW Canada I could easily see something in the STJ dig into the southeast and turn the corner. I doubt we get a cold storm in that pattern but we could get a wet snow bomb kinda thing like Feb 87. It's not a hopeless pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Gefs seems to prefer a more coastal track to the day ten-twelve deal. Seems like that's happened before though and then it becomes a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro is a disaster. We need people northeast to stay screwed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro is a disaster. We need people northeast to stay screwed too.this -nao is bootleg. wes noticed that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Parallel GFS. Will be implemented around May or so. graphics at mageval.ncep.noaa.gov What is the GFSX?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Parallel GFS. Will be implemented around May or so. graphics at mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Wasn't there a parallel GFS that ran in November and December 2014 that was implemented in January 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just getting a look at the Euro now, of course we're screwed for the weekend here but the far NW burbs look close to frozen. Surface and 850 are close to freezing at the onset of precip west of say Cumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Gefs seems to prefer a more coastal track to the day ten-twelve deal. Seems like that's happened before though and then it becomes a cutter. Looking at the members and it's pretty much a rain storm on all of them that have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 yes. and this is the next version. Wasn't there a parallel GFS that ran in November and December 2014 that was implemented in January 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Eps has virtually no support for us to get anything from the trailing wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Eps has virtually no support for us to get anything from the trailing wave. which means it will probably happen. EPS seems to be useless than past 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Eps has virtually no support for us to get anything from the trailing wave. Wasn't it just yesterday that the EPS snow outlook was the best it had been all season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 which means it will probably happen. EPS seems to be useless than past 10 days From my vantage point, that certainly is the way it seems. As for long range, I still consider Saturday as long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wasn't it just yesterday that the EPS snow outlook was the best it had been all season?On face value yes but that run with a 4" mean was from 3 threats each with a mean of like 1.2" and all 3 were inflated by a few members showing a big hit while most had a miss. So means can be misleading. All 3 were low probabilities. Now missing all 3 might be a bit bad luck. For what it's worth day 11 looks pretty good on eps. Nice trough over the east with higher heights in Canada and a 50/50 signal. At least eps backed off the raging +nao idea it has yesterday. Pattern isn't a dumpster fire. We can get lucky in the pattern shown on gefs and eps heading towards feb and more important it's close enough to getting a better pattern in feb. Don't want to see that dec crap reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Tons of knowledge floating around here. Great posters. I learn a lot from all of you. However...............people who hang on every new model cycle get kinda fussed at for doing so, yet I see the same thing being done with ensembles. Right now they seem to be pretty darn unreliable wrt to on the ground weather. Perhaps they are doing a pretty good job of giving a good idea of the overall pattern, but unless the mean has been for above normal temps and no snow, they have been wrong. So why should we sweat it if they show no snow? An argument could be made that we should be happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wasn't it just yesterday that the EPS snow outlook was the best it had been all season? I was posting about the Sun-Mon possibility. Support has been really weak for that and today is virtually non-existent. OTOH- there are a lot more front enders, TN valley jumpers, and coastals for the d10-11 threat that I would have thought. I ran the members and there's plenty with at least an OK cold hp and half decent antecedent airmass. GEFS says rain for sure but the eps says not so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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