stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the s/w behind this looks pretty good..turning neutral...this should produce something Like bob said might have a hard time goin neg in time. I'm in a stupid meeting and relying on y'all to figure out what's going on. Lol. But if we can't score with that, what can we score with? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Like bob said might have a hard time goin neg in time. I'm in a stupid meeting and relying on y'all to figure out what's going on. Lol. But if we can't score with that, what can we score with? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It produces another SLP, but its too far east for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It produces another SLP, but its too far east for anyone Guess it was too late going neg \ turning the corner. Definitely an improvement tho Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It produces another SLP, but its too far east for anyone Plenty of time for improvement. Lets see if the Euro has anything. Still time to trend from suppressed slider to a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like our chances with cold air in place and the storm s/e. Gfs seems to keep these offshore and track them farther west a day or two before the event. We've had a few hits happen just like that in the past. Much more favorable then trying to time a miller b transfer. We almost never get those right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Seems to be trending in our favor, at least for now. This weekend is probably too far gone but even it is steadily emphasizing the coastal over the lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Seems to be trending in our favor, at least for now. This weekend is probably too far gone but even it is steadily emphasizing the coastal over the lakes low. Get us more spacing please. Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It produces another SLP, but its too far east for anyone Needs to go neg in LA...but man are we improving each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Get us more spacing please. Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Needs to go neg in LA...but man are we improving each run. The differences in the trough axis on each run are stark. 12z is clearly more negative than 06z/00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The differences in the trough axis on each run are stark. 12z is clearly more negative than 06z/00z. saw that. One of those times when you just have to look at 500 on the next models to see where we are at. 850s look fine. Another 150 miles more west and sharper and money. Famous last words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 lulz 12z UKIE -- note precip maps only go out to hr 72 hr 72 -- 997 in W IL (primary?) and a 999 (secondary or Miller A?) in TLH (W FL) hr 96 -- 972 L just east of NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS fairly tightly clustered with the low a bit too far east off of NC. SE folks are probably getting a little excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Seems to be trending in our favor, at least for now. This weekend is probably too far gone but even it is steadily emphasizing the coastal over the lakes low. The weekend is still in the game imo. May need an onsides kick to pull it off, but still not dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 lulz 12z UKIE -- note precip maps only go out to hr 72 hr 72 -- 997 in W IL (primary?) and a 999 (secondary or Miller A?) in TLH (W FL) hr7212zUKIE1-12-16LOL.gif hr 96 -- 972 L just east of NYC/LI hr7212zUKIE1-12-16LOL2.gif I'm crazy but I like that. The UKMET is no model to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS fairly tightly clustered with the low a bit too far east off of NC. SE folks are probably getting a little excited though. I am more interested in the fact that it seems to be shifting closer to coast and with few days left who knows. Anything preventing it from shifting more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS fairly tightly clustered with the low a bit too far east off of NC. SE folks are probably getting a little excited though. Damn you get that fast. Weather bell? I think that event is the one to put any hope in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I am more interested in the fact that it seems to be shifting closer to coast and with few days left who knows. Anything preventing it from shifting more NW? i'm more interested in the fact that the pattern is less sucky for snow. that's really what i'm taking out of this the most. we may just have to baby step our way to a storm this year. if it's not this weekend, maybe something thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Damn you get that fast. Weather bell? I think that event is the one to put any hope in. I agree. I think the weekend thing is withering and likely done, although that hinky run of the UKMET makes me wonder what the Euro will do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Damn you get that fast. Weather bell? I think that event is the one to put any hope in. Wxbell is really quick with GEFS for whatever reason. Here's the relevant snips (120,126,132). Peeps can draw their own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looking further down the line. The D10 thing has strong support for a cutter or runner or something similar to this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 lulz 12z UKIE -- note precip maps only go out to hr 72 hr 72 -- 997 in W IL (primary?) and a 999 (secondary or Miller A?) in TLH (W FL) hr7212zUKIE1-12-16LOL.gif hr 96 -- 972 L just east of NYC/LI hr7212zUKIE1-12-16LOL2.gif It's in line with the GFS with the placement of critical thickness at 72 hours, still way to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow... Am I reading that right? There are a couple sub 985 members off ILM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow... Am I reading that right? There are a couple sub 985 members off ILM? Thought I saw a 979 too. Need more trending and fast. Not sure how many miles exactly but ORF would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wxbell is really quick with GEFS for whatever reason. Here's the relevant snips (120,126,132). Peeps can draw their own conclusions. 120gefs.JPG 126gefs.JPG 132gefs.JPG Thats not an awful spot to be this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Thats not an awful spot to be this far out Unfortunately the Euro isn't even remotely close to amplifying and turning the corner. If anything it's worse than last night. ETA: but it does drop the ns ull and energy far enough south to dust us sunday night. Even weak surface reflection just off the DE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looking further down the line. The D10 thing has strong support for a cutter or runner or something similar to this weekend. Until/unless the pac jet relaxes thats probably what any storm that isn't following closely behind something else is going to do. That's why early next week is the right setup of how we could produce in this pattern. Anytime a storm is more then a few days behind a front or bombing system to our northeast it will probably cut because the baroclinic zone is going to get pulled north by that raging jet off the pacific. Further down the line if we could get another blocking period to set up in Feb when the jet naturally starts to relax some and wavelengths are shorter we could do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Unfortunately the Euro isn't even remotely close to amplifying and turning the corner. If anything it's worse than last night. Yup, just saw that. And of course it'll be right. The GFS thing was probably a blip and will be gone on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 So I'm just wondering....What went wrong here that the models couldn't see? Was it the lack of high pressure (and what happened to it and why isn't it there?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Unfortunately the Euro isn't even remotely close to amplifying and turning the corner. If anything it's worse than last night. ETA: but it does drop the ns ull and energy far enough south to dust us sunday night. Even weak surface reflection just off the DE coast. in the morning discussion, lwx mentioned sunday as something to keep an eye on. maybe that could be the first real snow tv (if tonight doesn't pan out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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