Amped Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Okay, I'll say it... GFS 228 hours actually a really good setup. 1032 HP in ideal position and a neutral shortwave in OK Odd we have surpressed heights but no 5050 low. Need it to get a good right entrance jet going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well, we did get a snowstorm on the 00z GFS. It is day 10 though. This 'event' has been on the models now for few runs. 12z EURO had it @ 240 hours too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Odd we have surpressed heights but no 5050 low. Need it to get a good right entrance jet going. Yeah funny eh....We get a great block and 50/50 and can't find a HP or confluence anywhere....We get no 50/50 and boom a 1032 HP in the ideal spot and boom 12" of snow in VA...hell, maybe that is what it will take this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't think we need a 50/50 low as much as a lead low passing thru that general region. The d10+ thingy happens during a fairly solid shift in the NAO tho looks like it may be brief in this pretend scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well, we did get a snowstorm on the 00z GFS. It is day 10 though. This 'event' has been on the models now for few runs. 12z EURO had it @ 240 hours tooI think "day 10" is quickly becoming a dirty word around here! But, a chance is a chance. Though we're gearing up to strike out this weekend, hopefully we'll have another swing at that (but I'm certainly not betting on it right now!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GEFS def likes that Day 10 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hm imagine that. Trend continued on the GFS. once again nothing to stop this from getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro a colder rain. It looks like it's actually 2 different storms happening at the same time instead of a transfer. The euro has a millera aND a cutter at the same time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maybe it's starting to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maybe it's starting to come around. The cutter is still killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 what a difference a day makes. Transfer happens early but the other low never dies off and that just kills any snow shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro a colder rain. It looks like it's actually 2 different storms happening at the same time instead of a transfer. The euro has a millera aND a cutter at the same time lol What did it have 24 hours ago? If we get another 24 hours of trends like the past 24 we may be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What did it have 24 hours ago? If we get another 24 hours of trends like the past 24 we may be in business. 6z looked better for follow up wave. Looks closer to coast and it's only Tuesday. In fact everything looks better this morning. Not great but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A few 6z GEFS have sub 990 lows just off OBX Monday. Definitely need to watch this over the next few days. 0z EPS not supportive of that idea at all - still waiting to see the Para and its EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty stout rise in 1+2 lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty stout rise in 1+2 lately spike in region 3 too. I saw a number of proclamations that Nino would fade quickly but not happening. Slow burn. NDJ should be 2.3 again. Almost no chance to be less than that. outside chance at 2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think this has been that little hope, but, as Bob noted, not really looking promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maybe , just maybe, hope for help from the top. I respect Ed, and his thoughts on all things strat related Granted anything happening in that time frame looks to benefit later Feb. https://twitter.com/chionomaniac/status/686231396277432320 Strat PV is taking a big hit by the end of Jan. Getting toasty up top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think this has been that little hope, but, as Bob noted, not really looking promising. Wxsouth called for a historically cold and snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 spike in region 3 too. I saw a number of proclamations that Nino would fade quickly but not happening. Slow burn. NDJ should be 2.3 again. Almost no chance to be less than that. outside chance at 2.4Just given past strong nino performances seemed a little hopeful it was going to fade fast. See some folks starting to note it looks like it could linger better then other big ones like 97/98. Maybe we can get a 'third' nino in a row next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 https://twitter.com/Recretos/status/686893445324140544 From Andrew, he does some cool images and has some neat looking links and visuals GEFS now going below 10m/s, like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just given past strong nino performances seemed a little hopeful it was going to fade fast. See some folks starting to note it looks like it could linger better then other big ones like 97/98. Maybe we can get a 'third' nino in a row next winter. The silver lining I see in this recent Niño spike I mentioned yesterday is the likelihood that we get a neutral next year vs a Nina that all the models were showing a couple months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 FWIW, looks like 5 or so of the 06z GEFS individ members give DCA 2"+ snow in the Day 5 to 8 time period... so that is around 25% of the total ensembles... most of the action is N and W of the city as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The silver lining I see in this recent Niño spike I mentioned yesterday is the likelihood that we get a neutral next year vs a Nina that all the models were showing a couple months ago. All I know is one of the quietest tornado years ever happened in the third warm year in a row. So... hope that doesn't occur again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 FWIW, looks like 5 or so of the 06z GEFS individ members give DCA 2"+ snow in the Day 5 to 8 time period... so that is around 25% of the total ensembles... most of the action is N and W of the city as usual 06z GEFS also has a 997 transferred low sitting just below the outer banks on Saturday. It drops to 994 as it heads NE. The problem is not enough cold? Slides too far off shore and not up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 All I know is one of the quietest tornado years ever happened in the third warm year in a row. So... hope that doesn't occur again. Well you know I'll be pulling for mass destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 if you told me a week ago that we would have a 988 low here after the pattern change and -NAO/Ao and it would be rain.............this is pretty similar to the blizzard the 18z GFS showed last week but that was snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS at 120 looks close to something nice. Lot of energy on the 500 map and plenty of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fairly big shift @ 5h on the GFS for the trailing vort. Really tries to go neutral-neg and turn the corner. Going to be an uphill battle. Literally. But something to keep watching that isn't 200 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the s/w behind this looks pretty good..turning neutral...this should produce something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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