Sparky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It was miserable and was the winter that made me an official weenie. I didn't think it would ever snow again so I did my first all-nighter 12/73 for an early winter snow. We got like 8". The rest of that winter sucked too but there was some snow so it seemed like a lot. Lol I have always feared a 72/73 redux and so far so good this year if it's ever going to happen again. You are forgetting the 2/8/74 surprise snowstorm that dumped a quick 7-8 inches on Baltimore starting around the time school began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 AER- Cohen blog update today...We may be saved! Longer term we continue to expect that variability in the polar vortex to strongly influence Northern Hemisphere (NH) weather patterns. We are more confident that a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling event (T-S-T) is underway (Cohen et al. 2007) that will result in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Details of which are given below but based on a correct anticipation of a T-S-T we expect the following AO trends long-term. The AO will trend negative this week as geopotential heights continue to build across the Arctic. However next week the predicted strong pulse of vertical energy will force a positive trend in the tropospheric AO but a negative trend in the stratospheric AO. Once the SSW peaks the tropospheric AO will once again trend negative and the overall negative AO should persist longer than the initial negative AO event that is currently ongoing and is predicted to initiate the SSW. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The gif I posted is 300mb meridional wind speed anomaly, which isn't something I'm used to looking at normally. So, the strong positive anomalies over the western 2/3rds of the country mean lots of northward motion, which I translate to ridging. Then you can envision the eastern side of the ridge being near us with southward motion anomalies. Would be interested to know what that winter had for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I am trying to understand. What made the 2009-2010 winter a much better winter besides the EPO and the MJO. Was it also a lot of luck that made 2009-2010 so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something I am going to keep an eye on during 00z runs...A bunch of the 18z GFS ensembles are fairly interesting with that piece of energy at the back end of the trough during the the 16th-17th storm....Some redevelop the low into a large system...LONG shot, but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something I am going to keep an eye on during 00z runs...A bunch of the 18z GFS ensembles are fairly interesting with that piece of energy at the back end of the trough during the the 16th-17th storm....Some redevelop the low into a large system...LONG shot, but whateverIt's a long shot but it's about all we have to even look for so its worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's a long shot but it's about all we have to even look for so its worth keeping an eye on.I dug into the euro ens members ealier. There's enough to consider the option. More often then not that's how out storms work. Not some long lead lock for the distance. But a medium term alignment of features that put something on the radar kind of suddenly. I know you know this. Just making a general statement. The weekend storm looks like a certain dud attm. But the air mass behind it is pretty good. And the high doesn't seem like it will be a suppressing monster or anything. Just need the departing system to set up a properly aligned boundary for something on the heels to take advantage of. The period coincides with a relaxation of the AO so that's a plus as well. Maybe 0z burps a storm our way or at least leads more credence to the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I dug into the euro ens members ealier. There's enough to consider the option. More often then not that's how out storms work. Not some long lead lock for the distance. But a medium term alignment of features that put something on the radar kind of suddenly. I know you know this. Just making a general statement. The weekend storm looks like a certain dud attm. But the air mass behind it is pretty good. And the high doesn't seem like it will be a suppressing monster or anything. Just need the departing system to set up a properly aligned boundary for something on the heels to take advantage of. The period coincides with a relaxation of the AO so that's a plus as well. Maybe 0z burps a storm our way or at least leads more credence to the idea. Something like that, a system popping in the heels of another storm might be our only way to score while the pac jet is raging like this. The trough has to leave enough behind to allow something to get going. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The gif I posted is 300mb meridional wind speed anomaly, which isn't something I'm used to looking at normally. So, the strong positive anomalies over the western 2/3rds of the country mean lots of northward motion, which I translate to ridging. Then you can envision the eastern side of the ridge being near us with southward motion anomalies. Would be interested to know what that winter had for our area. Really neat maps you posted. I've been trying to find info online regarding that year's winter but all I've found is historic warmth for Minneapolis, Chicago, etc. ETA: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcatemps.pdf Dec/Jan/Feb avg was 41.8/33.5/39.8 - can't find snowfall data as official data for NWS began 10 years after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I dug into the euro ens members ealier. There's enough to consider the option. More often then not that's how out storms work. Not some long lead lock for the distance. But a medium term alignment of features that put something on the radar kind of suddenly. I know you know this. Just making a general statement. The weekend storm looks like a certain dud attm. But the air mass behind it is pretty good. And the high doesn't seem like it will be a suppressing monster or anything. Just need the departing system to set up a properly aligned boundary for something on the heels to take advantage of. The period coincides with a relaxation of the AO so that's a plus as well. Maybe 0z burps a storm our way or at least leads more credence to the idea. Thinking best shot for this Monday night into Tuesday...look at how the last storm left a strong ssw flow aloft along the East coast how about droping another vort behind the weekend dud then turn the storm up the coast with the cold easing in from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You are forgetting the 2/8/74 surprise snowstorm that dumped a quick 7-8 inches on Baltimore starting around the time school began.How silly of me to forget a snowstorm 42 years ago. At least I know I don't have to worry about Alzheimer's....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something I am going to keep an eye on during 00z runs...A bunch of the 18z GFS ensembles are fairly interesting with that piece of energy at the back end of the trough during the the 16th-17th storm....Some redevelop the low into a large system...LONG shot, but whatever Maybe an outside shot at some back-end flakes from a secondary. That's all I'm counting on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think the weekend could trend at least to a possible mixed bag. I think the odds are long but a couple of the members at least showed a possible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I am more looking at the Days 9-16 snowfall maps on the 18z GEFS individ members... once again it shows intrigue with close to half of its total members (9 out of 20, give or take a member) for accumulating snowfall of 2"+ at DCA... it does have a few large snowfall amounts which are fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm still getting used to the parallel euro ens on wxbell. Weird navigation. Looking at the plots it seems the para ens also like the idea of something in the d6-11 period. More so than the regular Eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Flow looks flatter in front of the weekend system. Might make a little difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 0z GFS: Trough starts to go negative too soon again. Perhaps a little more east than 18z but not gonna be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Haha...it did. Inching it's way closer. So much depends on that trough and the heights in front (my untrained thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Much cleaner transfer this time. We really don't need a miracle. It's not that far fetched. Come east young fella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What's that another 175 miles further east keep trending to Wednesday Night 0z and we will be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 If nothing else this gfs run gives hope for a little winter weather over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Here in the MA, it is being said that the system is going negative too soon. But in the SE forum, they say it needs to go negative sooner. So which is it? Or is negative later better for the MA and negative sooner better for the SE. Only asking as I am dead on the boarder, and do not know which may be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Here in the MA, it is being said that the system is going negative too soon. But in the SE forum, they say it needs to go negative sooner. So which is it? Or is negative later better for the MA and negative sooner better for the SE. Only asking as I am dead on the boarder, and do not know which may be better. I would think the best area for a system to start negative tilt for both SE and MA to be passed the Miss. Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still don't really favor the first system but change a thing or two and it's better. Wave on its heels is tricky... even small details there can impact how much the first can did. Not to mention that one almost blows up into something huge after too. Very volatile setup in that range. No reason to go way south on that stuff just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That little trailing vort is going to end up dumping on eastern NC if it keeps trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still don't really favor the first system but change a thing or two and it's better. Wave on its heels is tricky... even small details there can impact how much the first can did. Not to mention that one almost blows up into something huge after too. Very volatile setup in that range. No reason to go way south on that stuff just yet. Yeah that second one came close on that run. I swear I think that first one is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Okay, I'll say it... GFS 228 hours actually a really good setup. 1032 HP in ideal position and a neutral shortwave in OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still don't really favor the first system but change a thing or two and it's better. Wave on its heels is tricky... even small details there can impact how much the first can did. Not to mention that one almost blows up into something huge after too. Very volatile setup in that range. No reason to go way south on that stuff just yet. Lots of energy down in the gulf after the first storm goes through. If the trough was sharper, I think that would help to bring the low up the coast vs OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One thing this next week's pattern never had on the models is a HP in SE Canada or near the Lakes....The day 9-10 GFS is showing just that....lol hate me all ya want, bring it. As for what you mentioned earlier Bob, I would continue to keep an eye out on that wave. In the past we've seen storms kind of hit the models out of no where. As long as you have some ingredients on the map sometimes you'll see an event materialize in the 96-120hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Okay, I'll say it... GFS 228 hours actually a really good setup. 1032 HP in ideal position and a neutral shortwave in OK Couldn't resist putting that in there could ya? Lol Don't give the forum anything else to torture itself over, lol But I do have to wonder if at least SOMETHING will pop up before the month is out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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