Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Weeklies look pretty terrible. Trough west/ridge east end of week 3 into week 4. Tries to get better the end of week 4 but there's only 2 weeks left at that point. I may start rooting for the complete shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Weeklies look pretty terrible. Trough west/ridge east end of week 3 into week 4. Tries to get better the end of week 4 but there's only 2 weeks left at that point. I may start rooting for the complete shutout. Seeing the daily form myself now.. yeah looks like the Pac is trying to improve at the very end but that's mid-Feb. It's not quite December but it's not all that far off starting late Janish. Maybe that pattern shifted north a bit or just more STJ influence on the anomalies etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So...When did we see our first flakes in the analog years (83' and 66')? Winter of 1982-1983 as reported at Philadelphia International Airport first snowstorm can't answer first snow flakes: 12/12 1982 High 33 Low 19 Liquid 0.52" Snow 6.8" Totals Dec. 6.8" Jan. 0.2" Feb. 26.1" Mar. .9" Apr. 1.9" (April 19th 1983) Year Total 35.9" (Feb. 11-12th 22" fell in 24 hours) Winter of 1966-67 as reported at Philadelphia International Airport first snowstorm again can't answer first snow flakes: 12/13 1966 High 36 Low 32 Liquid 0.68" Snow 1.9" Totals Dec. 18.8" Jan. 19.7" Feb. 14.5" Mar. .1 Apr. 0" Total 53.1" (There were 3 storms that dropped 12"+ one in December, one in January, and one in Feb.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Seeing the daily form myself now.. yeah looks like the Pac is trying to improve at the very end but that's mid-Feb. It's not quite December but it's not all that far off starting late Janish. Maybe that pattern shifted north a bit or just more STJ influence on the anomalies etc. I'm not going to worry about it much. This winter has been stubborn up and down the east coast. It is what it is. Feb is at least historically ok with nino's. Ji would describe the weeklies as having all the reds and blues in the wrong places. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I didn't realize the parallel weeklies on wxbell goes out to 45 days. Was maybe better off not knowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not going to worry about it much. This winter has been stubborn up and down the east coast. It is what it is. Feb is at least historically ok with nino's. Ji would describe the weeklies as having all the reds and blues in the wrong places. Lol I wasn't around for 72-73 but I've had a few tell me it was similar to this, not the worst pattern nor a torch but just bad enough nothing happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I didn't realize the parallel weeklies on wxbell goes out to 45 days. Was maybe better off not knowing. Just tell us it will be an early Spring and this place will be a lot happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not going to worry about it much. This winter has been stubborn up and down the east coast. It is what it is. Feb is at least historically ok with nino's. Ji would describe the weeklies as having all the reds and blues in the wrong places. Lol I don't know enough about blocking I guess. I think I got too excited seeing it come together even knowing what happened in 97/98 (which I'd mostly tossed but it has shown up more lately). The mega nino sample is so small... In general I've gone under the assumption that worst case is a decent likelihood given the Nino strength. But I still like snow.. so it's a tricky balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I didn't realize the parallel weeklies on wxbell goes out to 45 days. Was maybe better off not knowing. Yea, I've been watching them. I have no idea if they are better than the weeklies. They seem to always look better so I'll just hug them tonight and toss the ugly ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 5 days ago we were discussing this.... seems like half a century ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I wasn't around for 72-73 but I've had a few tell me it was similar to this, not the worst pattern nor a torch but just bad enough nothing happened It sucked. Especially for a kid. That was also the winter when the Skins lost to the perfect Dolphins in an ugly game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just tell us it will be an early Spring and this place will be a lot happier. Basically a mild to warm look for all of Feb but +PNA overall in line with monthlies. Looks pretty sad tho. Maybe a window for PDIII with some relaxation/shifting of GOA low... then it uberizes again at the end. +NAO for miles. Does look fairly wet.. or at least a storm a week or so. Like now I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I wasn't around for 72-73 but I've had a few tell me it was similar to this, not the worst pattern nor a torch but just bad enough nothing happenedI was too young to remember. On h5 paper it looks OK but it must have been a miserable year for weenies. This has been an interesting year. Matt always said he wanted the strongest nino possible and take chances. I used to be on board with those thoughts. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Winter of 1982-1983 as reported at Philadelphia International Airport first snowstorm can't answer first snow flakes: 12/12 1982 High 33 Low 19 Liquid 0.52" Snow 6.8" Totals Dec. 6.8" Jan. 0.2" Feb. 26.1" Mar. .9" Apr. 1.9" (April 19th 1983) Year Total 35.9" (Feb. 11-12th 22" fell in 24 hours) Winter of 1966-67 as reported at Philadelphia International Airport first snowstorm again can't answer first snow flakes: 12/13 1966 High 36 Low 32 Liquid 0.68" Snow 1.9" Totals Dec. 18.8" Jan. 19.7" Feb. 14.5" Mar. .1 Apr. 0" Total 53.1" (There were 3 storms that dropped 12"+ one in December, one in January, and one in Feb.) Ah, I actually meant to say the winter of 65'-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Basically a mild to warm look for all of Feb but +PNA overall in line with monthlies. Looks pretty sad tho. Maybe a window for PDIII with some relaxation/shifting of GOA low... then it uberizes again at the end. +NAO for miles. Does look fairly wet.. or at least a storm a week or so. Like now I guess. Well dang...Time to pull the plug already? Yeesh, that sucks...But it is what it is, I suppose...But perhaps the last hope is mid-February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well dang...Time to pull the plug already? Yeesh, that sucks...But it is what it is, I suppose...But perhaps the last hope is mid-February? Can any mets verify this sad news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 LWXYeah we wee discussing that in the cartopper thread. It's all I'm invested in at this point. Most real threat all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good to see the depression in here tonight. Meanwhile the GFS ens are colder for the weekend and much more stronger with a coastal just east of OCMD. and a few are beginning to show a monster after the weekend towards Monday-Tuesday. 00Z gonna keep the cold trend going this weekend and probably going to pop up a new low after the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I wasn't around for 72-73 but I've had a few tell me it was similar to this, not the worst pattern nor a torch but just bad enough nothing happened97-98 was the same way. Pattern looked okay, wasn't all torch, and several close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was too young to remember. On h5 paper it looks OK but it must have been a miserable year for weenies. This has been an interesting year. Matt always said he wanted the strongest nino possible and take chances. I used to be on board with those thoughts. Haha It was miserable and was the winter that made me an official weenie. I didn't think it would ever snow again so I did my first all-nighter 12/73 for an early winter snow. We got like 8". The rest of that winter sucked too but there was some snow so it seemed like a lot. LolI have always feared a 72/73 redux and so far so good this year if it's ever going to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not sure why anyone would root for a super Nino. Yes, you may have a slight increase in the probability of a HECS, but you also have a huge increase in probability of getting shutout. The winter of 1877-78 might have been an even bigger Nino than this one - there's no way of knowing for sure. There were forest and prairie fires in February of that winter. Give me a nickel-and-dime winter over a super Nino one. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ah, I actually meant to say the winter of 65'-66 No Worries: 1965-66 PHL International Airport Dec. 0" Jan. 16" first snow at all measurable 1/22/65 Feb. 11.4 Mar. 0" Apr. 0" Total 27.4" biggest storm was like 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good to see the depression in here tonight. Meanwhile the GFS ens are colder for the weekend and much more stronger with a coastal just east of OCMD. and a few are beginning to show a monster after the weekend towards Monday-Tuesday. 00Z gonna keep the cold trend going this weekend and probably going to pop up a new low after the weekend I think P005 would be acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It was miserable and was the winter that made me an official weenie. I didn't think it would ever snow again so I did my first all-nighter 12/73 for an early winter snow. We got like 8". The rest of that winter sucked too but there was some snow so it seemed like a lot. Lol I have always feared a 72/73 redux and so far so good this year if it's ever going to happen again. That was the winter i was born on so i obviously didn't have to experience the torture snow lovers did but I always said If another 97/98 showed up I would openly accept it and roll the dice figuring it can't be as bad as it was 18 years ago. It may end up being worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think P005 would be acceptable. Average QPF as snow bumped up a bit from last run (.09 to .17 for Baltimore). Pretty bleak looking forward but I doubt it's a total shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not sure why anyone would root for a super Nino. Yes, you may have a slight increase in the probability of a HECS, but you also have a huge increase in probability of getting shutout. The winter of 1877-78 might have been an even bigger Nino than this one - there's no way of knowing for sure. There were forest and prairie fires in February of that winter. Give me a nickel-and-dime winter over a super Nino one. Every time.Interesting on 77-78. Because it was dry I assume? It's a fascinating event one way or another. Generational in a lot of ways. Weather weenies can appreciate that I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Found this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Neat WxUSAF. The big Ninos seem to have a tendancy for a giant blocking ridge somewhere in that general zone. You can almost squint and see this year being similar but shift everything east a bit.. at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not sure why anyone would root for a super Nino. Yes, you may have a slight increase in the probability of a HECS, but you also have a huge increase in probability of getting shutout. The winter of 1877-78 might have been an even bigger Nino than this one - there's no way of knowing for sure. There were forest and prairie fires in February of that winter. Give me a nickel-and-dime winter over a super Nino one. Every time. What I don't understand is, if you look at the snowiest winters here by ENSO, its a bimodal distribution with weak La Nina and moderate El Nino. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me from a statistical standpoint- you would think it would be a normal distribution peaking somewhere in between, or else just continue to increase off the charts the stronger the Nino is. Maybe the sample size is just too small. I put all my chips in February a long time ago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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