mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My compadres, you have shamefully forgotten to mention the weekend rule for this event. Bad weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I recall the Jan 30th even pretty well, really unexpected, ended up closing the office and I got an extended weekend out of it. Then the following week with back to back big storms. Pretty sweet 10 days of snow Pure cold powder, 6" worth, on Jan. 30. And the start of what I still think is the most incredible 12 day period of concentrated winter weather I've ever experienced (including what I remember from living in Ohio). Nearly 50" where I'm at in that time period, and I've never seen that even with lake effect snows in the Cleveland area. Certainly not that much on the synoptic scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I recall the Jan 30th even pretty well, really unexpected, ended up closing the office and I got an extended weekend out of it. Then the following week with back to back big storms. Pretty sweet 10 days of snowI had to drop my wife off at Hopkins that morning as my sister-in-law was having cancer surgery that day. I'll never forget happening to glance in my rear view mirror at a time when only a few flakes were making to the ground and noticed the top of the old USF&G/Legg Mason building gone as a blanket of snow was descending from the sky. It made it down to the ground while I was heading home on Lombard. Fond memory that day indeed as it was for my sister-in-law who came through the surgery fine and has passed the 5-year hump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I recall the Jan 30th even pretty well, really unexpected, ended up closing the office and I got an extended weekend out of it. Then the following week with back to back big storms. Pretty sweet 10 days of snow One of the most fun storms in my life. At 7 am on Friday my forecast for Saturday was 20% chance is snow showers. When the 12z models rolled out with the huge north jump, they changed it to a 50% chance. By 6pm every county in Va had a WSW or a WWA....except my county but my forecast jumped to 70% chance of 1 inch. By about 10 pm I was in the WWA but was the only county not in a WSW. By the time I woke the next morning I was in the WSW and 100% chance. I also remember that even with temps in the teens, there was not even one minute of virga. As soon as the first echo showed, flakes were falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 One of the most fun storms in my life. At 7 am on Friday my forecast for Saturday was 20% chance is snow showers. When the 12z models rolled out with the huge north jump, they changed it to a 50% chance. By 6pm every county in Va had a WSW or a WWA....except my county but my forecast jumped to 70% chance of 1 inch. By about 10 pm I was in the WWA but was the only county not in a WSW. By the time I woke the next morning I was in the WSW and 100% chance. I also remember that even with temps in the teens, there was not even one minute of virga. As soon as the first echo showed, flakes were falling. Those were good days my friend. And as our train is pulling into the station and we board the 0z train to Pain City I just want to say it was a great ride. Thanks for the memories and see you soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 FIRST a comment about JAN 11-12 Low/ busted forecasted ...I couLD do a JB thing AND "say well I got the pattern right ... But I wont. That forecast was based on key assumption that the Jan 11-12 arctic cold front --which we all can now see IS coming ... would arrive FIRST before the Low over AL developed . The early development of LOW killed that whole idea OK on this event... The KEYS to this threat are 1) the severe -AO and historic -NAO ( -4sd) that is going to develop 2) the New England clipper Low JAN 13-14 gets trapped by the block and becomes a massive 50/ 50 Low or the PV 3) the SPLIT flow pattern and the strong short wave over southern Calif ANY MODEL solution that has the 50/50 Low and/ or PV in se Canada and the Huge massive -NAO and Strong -AO but takes the LOW Inland (such as an Ohio valley or Appalachian track) is simply meteorologically impossible. That being the case... if the 18z GFS and 12Z high ECMWF parallel Model are overdoing the 50/50 Low then things will be very different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 I wonder if we might pull out a light event in and around the 13th?? There's a little clipper type system showing up in quite a few 18z members.....quite a few more than were there at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Potential is there. Gotta get the pieces in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What did I miss...? Did you see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I remember this one well: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/930313_met3_ir_storm_of_the_century_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I wonder if we might pull out a light event in and around the 13th?? There's a little clipper type system showing up in quite a few 18z members.....quite a few more than were there at 12z.0I have not written off snow Tues pm into Wednesday AM wonder if wave of low pressure forms along the boundary to our east explodes rapidly moving slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Fwiw I thought you got the pattern right. Reality is just slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Can we move this to the long range thread? Way too early for the storm to have its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Can we move this to the long range thread? Way too early for the storm to have its own thread. Good idea...at least until we get closer...if we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Can we move this to the long range thread? Way too early for the storm to have its own thread. Loosen up, Ben. Go fly a kite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hey I did LR PBP on the 18z GFS and we got a MECS. I'll go for it again. Through 114 HRs the 00z run is impressively similar to the 18z run at the same time. 18z had a slightly more impressive West Coast ridge. The energy out in the Pacific which ends up forming the storm we are talking about looks a bit more potent FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 0 I have not written off snow Tues pm into Wednesday AM wonder if wave of low pressure forms along the boundary to our east explodes rapidly moving slowly 0Z gfs is starting to support that I believe. Highzenberg, all yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The night of the Superbowl? That was 2/7/10, which many DC area residents spent without power. Did you mean another date? You know what, I got it confused. By the time of the superbowl the models were already showing it. It was either the GGEM or GFS which first showed that 2nd Feb storm though I do know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Hey I did LR PBP on the 18z GFS and we got a MECS. I'll go for it again. Through 114 HRs the 00z run is impressively similar to the 18z run at the same time. 18z had a slightly more impressive West Coast ridge. The energy out in the Pacific which ends up forming the storm we are talking about looks a bit more potent FWIW What are the implications for later in the run for being more potent out in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What are the implications for later in the run for being more potent out in the Pacific https://youtu.be/Z0GFRcFm-aY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 141 HRs the PV is more elongated compared to 18z. There is actually a Miller B that forms and slams NW Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Thru 147 hours. Philadelphia gets its first coating - 1" of snow with snow showers from the Low that ends up clobbering Maine & parts of Canada. That low bombing out really helps tank the AO and could help solidify a 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 141 HRs the PV is more elongated compared to 18z. There is actually a Miller B that forms and slams NW Maine.Looks like it gives dca/bwi some light anow as the front passes around 129-135 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What I don't like about this run is that the ULL is kind of splitting in half. The 18z had a very large ULL which contributed to a lot of confluence over the East. @ 156 hrs it looks like it might be hard for a HP to build in to the region we need it if there is a ULL in South-Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What I don't like about this run is that the ULL is kind of splitting in half. The 18z had a very large ULL which contributed to a lot of confluence over the East. @ 156 hrs it looks like it might be hard for a HP to build in to the region we need it if there is a ULL in South-Central Canada.Maybe, but a lot can happen in 48 hrs...or if not this run, then the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 @ 168 hours the energy is crashing into the southwest, but notice we have ridging out ahead of it because the PV isn't as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Maybe, but a lot can happen in 48 hrs...or if not this run, then the next. Even if this run shows a Lakes Cutter I still love the potential and the setup. Mitch we both know every run at this time frame is going to be different. I am just so hungry for something to track that I am staying up for the EURO for an event 240 hours away lol. It has been over 9 months can you blame me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 As DT would state, we have a Pamela Anderson situation at 174 hours with two ULL's sitting next to each other in Canada. Really need the one on the East to hold its position or that energy out west will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Sounds like bad news. Oh well on to the Euro..... just kidding lets let the run finish. FYI I'm not a meteorologist, just a nut job. You're new to this kind of stuff....Normally I'd probably get banned for doing a PBP for an event this far out, so please relax. At this range we rely on ensembles....even if this run showed a 60" blizzard it wouldn't mean a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 As DT would state, we have a Pamela Anderson situation at 174 hours with two ULL's sitting next to each other in Canada. Really need the one on the East to hold its position or that energy out west will cut.It will so long as the block holds...so how is that looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.