Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like a clipper on the 20th prevents or helps to prevent a developing storm in the GOM from moving north. Let's get rid of that clipper and enjoy our first snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Is there any data on how the ensembles have done in the last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 To me the gfs appears to have been oscillating less than the euro at this range for next weekend. Any thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GEFS looks pretty crappy for any follow up to the MLK disaster. Same kind of look with a vort in the middle of the conus and ridging out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 anyone seen ensembles for euro 240 ht for snowfall, its laughable , WE DONT GET SQUAT!!! This completes the cover all bases that models are designed for. We have had the snow, then suppressed, then cutter, and now nothing I do believe that the eventual outcome will be somewhere between 100 miles offshore and 300 miles inland but still cannot fathom the value of every six hours showing the next widely variable outcome rather than centering on the most probable outcome and sticking with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 GEFS looks pretty crappy for any follow up to the MLK disaster. Same kind of look with a vort in the middle of the conus and ridging out in front. There's always the one bad apple spoils the bunch theory. There's some merit to that as well. It was about 4 days ago that the GFS was giving all of us the warm fuzzies about the coming weekend into next week and it had good ensemble support. Now all of that is gone. I'm not discourage by the GFS or its ensembles because neither is proving to be reliable wrt on the ground weather if you go out beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GEFS looks pretty crappy for any follow up to the MLK disaster. Same kind of look with a vort in the middle of the conus and ridging out in front. Things are on the verge of falling apart completely, hopefully we get a turn around in trends soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro is a whole lot of nothing, but cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z Euro moved the weekend inland low like 20 miles SE. The only thing really at stake with this system at this point is the position of the dry slot/timing of the transfer to the coastal (and its strength), which will determine whether we can manage to avoid most of the horrible soul crushing cold rain this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS with another cutter and warm intrusion weekend after next. Good times. Yep. I'm half hoping for a shut out through January as there have been too many folks talking about how great the pattern is and how it resembles 19xx, a potential analog when the two most consistant analogs have been 1998 and 1983. The pattern is better than it was last month but....it still is not perfect. The pattern has never been an above normal one for snow. This month it has had periods when it has approached normal which in DC never yeilds real high probabilities. The pattern still is not a terrible one nor a really good one though it certainly is unlikely to yield snow through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro is a whole lot of nothing, but cold. It dumps cold in behind the cutter but its in and out then the whole pattern breaks down and looks to be about to throw a ridge into the east again day 10. I didn't over analyze them but from the glance I gave to each I saw nothing I liked from any of the runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This completes the cover all bases that models are designed for. We have had the snow, then suppressed, then cutter, and now nothing I do believe that the eventual outcome will be somewhere between 100 miles offshore and 300 miles inland but still cannot fathom the value of every six hours showing the next widely variable outcome rather than centering on the most probable outcome and sticking with that good comment, summarizes the situation perfectly. TY very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It dumps cold in behind the cutter but its in and out then the whole pattern breaks down and looks to be about to throw a ridge into the east again day 10. I didn't over analyze them but from the glance I gave to each I saw nothing I liked from any of the runs today. 3rd run in a row with nothing, ty, wont bother to look, we wait thru torch dec for this, amazing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yep. I'm half hoping for a shut out through January as there have been too many folks talking about how great the pattern is and how it resembles 19xx, a potential analog when the two most consistant analogs have been 1998 and 1983. The pattern is better than it was last month but....it still is not perfect. The pattern has never been an above normal one for snow. This month it has had periods when it has approached normal which in DC never yeilds real high probabilities. The pattern still is not a terrible one nor a really good one though it certainly is unlikely to yield snow through the weekend. euro confirms that, in spades, ty, also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It dumps cold in behind the cutter but its in and out then the whole pattern breaks down and looks to be about to throw a ridge into the east again day 10. I didn't over analyze them but from the glance I gave to each I saw nothing I liked from any of the runs today. reshuffle time with a better result afterwards...hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 reshuffle time with a better result afterwards I am not ready to throw the whole winter out, but this "window" really fell apart fast. I am a bit shocked, not that we didn't get snow, but that we might not even get close. I still think if we can get blocking to reload in February we could get a better result when the jet is more likely to get south of us but man this definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Stats show it never snows well around here this time of year. Even the super perfect awesome pattern couldn't change that. As usual winter starts Feb 1, if it starts at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What happened to all those great day 10 to 15 ensemble rune from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I am not ready to throw the whole winter out, but this "window" really fell apart fast. I am a bit shocked, not that we didn't get snow, but that we might not even get close. I still think if we can get blocking to reload in February we could get a better result when the jet is more likely to get south of us but man this definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. Was thinking the same thing. It's really a bit surprising given the consensus built up to this point...the "window" didn't even seem to ever really open. This literally fell apart within the past couple of days, apparently. Ensembles and even most of the ops runs have been showing a much more favorable period for awhile, and that now appears far more in doubt. Not saying things won't "go back" or improve, but yesterday and today have not been kind; the ensembles backing off at least somewhat is not encouraging either. (ETA: Maybe the phrase "fell apart" is a bit strong a wording on my part, but it sure isn't that great either way.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I am not ready to throw the whole winter out, but this "window" really fell apart fast. I am a bit shocked, not that we didn't get snow, but that we might not even get close. I still think if we can get blocking to reload in February we could get a better result when the jet is more likely to get south of us but man this definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. need the SSW to give us the best chance it seems I'm not ready to throw the winter out yet either, especially since the last 2 winters have proved we have another 2 months+ remaining for decent snow opportunities otoh, the only other analog that gives some shot at a great winter that started late is 78/79 when we didn't really get snow going until the last 2 days of Jan; BUT, we did have a fluke in Thanksgiving week that gave us 3-4" from a storm that traveled far enough to our west that the cold held strong before switching to zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 need the SSW to give us the best chance it seems 384 gfs is trying to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 384 gfs is trying to save us Wow, we're really scraping the bottom when looking at 384-h for a SSW event to save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z GEFS h5 looks decent enough through the run. Still positive height anomalies to our north, low heights over the east, and south for the most part. Still has the big trough near GoA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 There's not much talk I take less seriously than SSW talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yep. I'm half hoping for a shut out through January as there have been too many folks talking about how great the pattern is and how it resembles 19xx, a potential analog when the two most consistant analogs have been 1998 and 1983. The pattern is better than it was last month but....it still is not perfect. The pattern has never been an above normal one for snow. This month it has had periods when it has approached normal which in DC never yeilds real high probabilities. The pattern still is not a terrible one nor a really good one though it certainly is unlikely to yield snow through the weekend. I haven't been convinced it was an amazing pattern for us per se tho admittedly I got a bit excited watching the blocking show up and go to town. It would be a little sad to get thru it with nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Was thinking the same thing. It's really a bit surprising given the consensus built up to this point...the "window" didn't even seem to ever really open. This literally fell apart within the past couple of days, apparently. Ensembles and even most of the ops runs have been showing a much more favorable period for awhile, and that now appears far more in doubt. Not saying things won't "go back" or improve, but yesterday and today have not been kind; the ensembles backing off at least somewhat is not encouraging either. (ETA: Maybe the phrase "fell apart" is a bit strong a wording on my part, but it sure isn't that great either way.) There have been some red flags for me the last week. One was that the northern stream keeps getting in the way as soon as things get into day 7 range. We've discussed that already. The second flag was the ensembles mean h5 looked good but the mean snow never really reflected it. The last few years when a good snow blitz period was about to start those were showing impressive totals. 12"+ in the 15 day means. The fact that they were only hovering around 2-4" regularly troubled me. Especially when those numbers were propped up by a few crazy high runs within the ensembles. We never had a majority showing good snow. I wanted to see those means start to get higher to feel better. Turns out they were telling us something was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z GEFS h5 looks decent enough through the run. Still positive height anomalies to our north, low heights over the east, and south for the most part. Still has the big trough near GoA. The gefs and eps flipped last night with the gefs being more favorable for snow long Lange now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Stats show it never snows well around here this time of year. Even the super perfect awesome pattern couldn't change that. As usual winter starts Feb 1, if it starts at all. maybe for the big snows, but we're usually capable of getting a couple minor events until then. this is just an off winter so far. i haven't even seen a flake fall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 What happened to all those great day 10 to 15 ensemble rune from yesterday From my perspective, they seem about as useful as the op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 good comment, summarizes the situation perfectly. TY very muchDespite years of a few maintaining otherwise the ultimate goal of 4+ days models is to show all the scenarios and compile that data for presentation come funding time. Secondary to that is Not the prediction of the more likely outcome but rather a presentation of what could occur.A fabulous snowstorm on the gfs 7 days from now is as useful as articles last week about how the Redskins would win by two touchdowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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