January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[yoda]

UKMET Much improved. No doubt that's cold

 

Possibly... but we can only see that map past 120 since the 850s T only go out to 72... so we are left wondering how it got there unless someone has a 108 panel

[WinterWxLuvr]

UKMET Much improved. No doubt that's cold

You realize that the panel before that one has a low over Lake Superior?  No way we get a snow out of the UKMET as advertised IMO.

[yoda]

You realize that the panel before that one has a low over Lake Superior?  No way we get a snow out of the UKMET as advertised IMO.

 

Yes... thats why I wish/want to see the 108 panel... how does that secondary get there?  It looks decent enough IF the transfer was south enough

[WinterWxLuvr]

Possibly... but we can only see that map past 120 since the 850s T only go out to 72... so we are left wondering how it got there unless someone has a 108 panel

This is true.  So Ravens 84, perhaps, but I still very much doubt it.

[Ravens94]

Possibly... but we can only see that map past 120 since the 850s T only go out to 72... so we are left wondering how it got there unless someone has a 108 panel

Assumption would be its good given the strength and position and No western low. Faster transfer is all we need. there is cold air to work with. Much improved over 00z run for sure. I wish 850 plots went out that far 

[EastCoast NPZ]

There's no question the atmosphere is in strong Nino mode IMO. Much of the northern stream stuff is split flow that was initially part of the enhanced STJ over the Pacific. Partly why the northern stream is pushing mild air in, potentially even under a block.

 

I'm a little perplexed as to why we haven't really seen any coastals. I think it's just the trough/ridge axes have been bad. The south and central US has seen more signs of the STJ for sure, as has the West of course. The Nov-Dec pattern wasn't too far off of 1982 in CONUS but perhaps on steroids.

 

Good info.  Thanks for the explanation.

[Ravens94]

Dude I am pretty sure that you are hallucinating. The GFS is pretty much a disaster at this point.  The UKMET sucks.  

 

Its gonna be like 60 again next Saturday.

Where ? LOL and Might want to check a trend map on the GFS. headed towards a UK-CMC idea.http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_850_gfs_all_12.htm

[yoda]

GGEM is lulz... 1001 SLP NW of ILM at 108, then 996 SLP over ORF at 114... 991 just east of ACY at 120

 

All this while another SLP tracks NE in the Plains into Indiana

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

GFS is trending Colder at 850 and the surface. All that needs to happen is a faster transfer and a more organized secondary. There is cold air to TAP in PA. if you get a bombing coastal off VA-MD you are going to tap the cold air. GFS has been trying to get better. Not there yet tho. some will probably disagree but compared to 18z its significantly colder and getting colder and colder run after run. the coastal can only get better. I by far will not drop this weekend. seen setups modeled to suck over 100 and be great under 100. Of course the further south you go the more you need but northern MD has a chance in my mind. CMC finally shows a coastal and a deeping one at that. cold air to the north. Just need a faster transfer to wrap the cold

 

I kind of see what you're saying, but not sure there's much difference in the end.  Just looking at the surface, the 10C line is in almost the same place (and goes right through this area); the 0C line is similar though perhaps it looks a tad farther south into northern NY state.  I will agree that the 850 temperatures look colder, the primary surface low is farther east (and a bit south) as is the 850 low center, and the coastal looks more organized.  Maybe the GFS is trying to spin up the coastal more.  Not sure how much that means down the road, though worth keeping an eye on I suppose.

[stormtracker]

GGEM is lulz... 1001 SLP NW of ILM at 108, then 996 SLP over ORF at 114... 991 just east of ACY at 120

?  it looks like the GFS

[WinterWxLuvr]

Assumption would be its good given the strength and position and No western low. Faster transfer is all we need. there is cold air to work with. Much improved over 00z run for sure. I wish 850 plots went out that far 

Sorry, but there's not a chance of that being good.  That low is already to our latitude, and the original low won't transfer from Lake Superior to the South Carolina coast.  If you want snow this weekend, you need another model besides the UKMET.

[yoda]

?  it looks like the GFS

 

Stronger with the coastal by 10mb and a tad faster.. along with track being a tad more NE off the coast

[Ravens94]

Sorry, but there's not a chance of that being good.  That low is already to our latitude, and the original low won't transfer from Lake Superior to the South Carolina coast.  If you want snow this weekend, you need another model besides the UKMET.

How is there any proof the UK is bad? 500MB plot looks fine for me at least. Location is gonna be key obviously. but nothing to prove its bad with the frame off the coast.

[Ian]

GFS with another cutter and warm intrusion weekend after next. Good times.

[Bob Chill]

Sorry, but there's not a chance of that being good.  That low is already to our latitude, and the original low won't transfer from Lake Superior to the South Carolina coast.  If you want snow this weekend, you need another model besides the UKMET.

 

Not to mention no HP to the north whatsoever.

 

I'm with you. We need a faster and further west track of the primary to stand much chance at anything. No model stops the primary from driving north of our latitude. We all know what that means regardless of secondary off the coast.  

 

ETA: I meant further east and quicker.

[Bob Chill]

GFS with another cutter and warm intrusion weekend after next. Good times.

 

#atmosphericmemory

[WinterWxLuvr]

How is there any proof the UK is bad? 500MB plot looks fine for me at least. Location is gonna be key obviously. but nothing to prove its bad with the frame off the coast.

If you look at the panel you posted, you can see where the transfer came from.  You don't get snow here with that.  

 

The only scenario I can see that works is that the trough is much more neutral/pos/east and the low ends up tracking much more to the south/east before it tries to cut, then transfers at a lat below us.  Plus we need a high, more of one, to our north/north east to hold in some cold air.

 

And that's a lot to ask.

[mitchnick]

#atmosphericmemory

#modelsfinallylearning

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not to mention no HP to the north whatsoever.

 

I'm with you. We need a faster and further west track of the primary to stand much chance at anything. No model stops the primary from driving north of our latitude. We all know what that means regardless of secondary off the coast.  

Or just a total remake of the storm to one of our Tn Valley lows driving into a wedge of cold air which is, like I said, a total remake of the storm.

[Ian]

#atmosphericmemory

We need to Feb 1983 this place stat.

[Kevin Reilly]

I totally agree. And it's no surprise 83 and 98 are plastered all over the analog lists over the next 7-14 days. The cold highs have been consistently short lived. So far, none of the pac short waves are lining themselves up with a favorable air mass. The luck ingredient is absent. But the atmosphere is definitely nino style.

We go through this all the time with "good patterns". We've wasted plenty in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Keep the short waves coming and keep giving us chances. Not really much else to say.

Guess we can always hope for Feb 11th-12th 1983...

[87storms]

GFS with another cutter and warm intrusion weekend after next. Good times.

 

looks toasty at the end.  nice playoff weather.

[Bob Chill]

Or just a total remake of the storm to one of our Tn Valley lows driving into a wedge of cold air which is, like I said, a total remake of the storm.

 

I edited my post. I meant further east and quicker. Need to drive into the antecedent air mass (even though it's weak sauce) without a couple days of return flow to wreck things. 

[Ian]

looks toasty at the end.  nice playoff weather.

The good ole Greenland block torch. #superninoing

[WinterWxLuvr]

I edited my post. I meant further east and quicker. Need to drive into the antecedent air mass (even though it's weak sauce) without a couple days of return flow to wreck things. 

Exactly.  And IMO if we have any hope, this is the way it would happen.  There is a clear trend on the GFS to keep bringing it east.  Of course that trend will probably run out of gas soon.  I wonder if how the little system Tues/Wed plays out might have a role going forward.

 

I think we are looking up the ass end of a dead horse, but when you're already neck deep you might as well keep looking.

[MDstorm]

GFS with another cutter and warm intrusion weekend after next. Good times.

That's the pattern changer..........  

 

MDstorm

[Ravens94]

THE CMC is further west then the UKMET and still has a stronger primary and is not even that warm. Cold air gets sucked into the coastal from the north and there was a High there brifely. Not a doubt in my mind the UK was NOT bad seeing the CMC. The GFS has been going colder and east since 00Z
The CMC then freezes everyone a few days after.

[Quasievil]

THE CMC is further west then the UKMET and still has a stronger primary and is not even that warm. Cold air gets sucked into the coastal from the north and there was a High there brifely. Not a doubt in my mind the UK was NOT bad seeing the CMC. The GFS has been going colder and east since 00Z

The CMC then freezes everyone a few days after.

That LOW over Indiana is a crusher in addition to the lack of any High pressure anywhere. 

[kurtstack]

lakes cutter is not something we typically recover from on models at this range. I would much rather see cold and dry with a suppressed storm

at this range. That is a scenario we can recover from around here. But once the models primary the lakes its ballgame.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BTRWx]

THE CMC is further west then the UKMET and still has a stronger primary and is not even that warm. Cold air gets sucked into the coastal from the north and there was a High there brifely. Not a doubt in my mind the UK was NOT bad seeing the CMC. The GFS has been going colder and east since 00Z

The CMC then freezes everyone a few days after.

Remember that model trends decrease in amplitude as your target date approaches. Even if every model run were to trend colder up until the first measurable precip, the 540 line would barely penetrate into PA for much of the event.

 

eta: in terms of what the gfs has been showing