January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[Bob Chill]

As for Bob Chill, I just hope we both get crushed and NYC gets left out like Feb 5-6, 2010. (sorry for being so off topic)

Now we're talking. As long as I get .1 more than you were good. Toss in an occluded rain into Boston and I'll buy the beer

[DTWXRISK]

 WES / SNOW GOOSE     that is how I got  my  first MET job...I was  at CCNY  and  yes  the NGM Model  was all snow  for  LGA /DCA  PHL  BOS  My professor    and I and the under grad class the day before  all went for   snow to rain maybe 2 "

I went for   4-8"  chance of  6-10"  ending as   rain
I was  a snow mongerer but  I amde  my case as to  why   I went  for that Much snow and a and delayed change over

Next  day   professor  comes in  class  30 minutes late  covered in heavby melting  wet snow 
" DT  you Lucky    sonofabitch"

next day  he set   me up with Jao Rao and  Compu   weather


 

It was totally blown up in NYC the forecast was 1-2 changing to rain it ended up as 8-12 ending as a bit of sleet and rain and many cars stranded on the road

[SnowGoose69]

I know I may sound crazy but I'm convinced this will be the last cutter that happens, no way any storm from what I see now post 1/17 is going to cut LOL

[Ji]

312 looks good

[mitchnick]

Gfs for 1/20 saves the day. Lol

[BTRWx]

I know I may sound crazy but I'm convinced this will be the last cutter that happens, no way any storm from what I see now post 1/17 is going to cut LOL

Now we're talking! The question is, are you convinced that next weekend will be a cutter?

[Ji]

Threats cany break the 240 hour mark

[SnowGoose69]

Now we're talking! The question is, are you convinced that next weekend will be a cutter?

I think it will be just a mess much like most of the cutters have been so far, it'll be an unphased weakening piece of junk if I had to guess right now. I was by far more pessimistic on when the pattern change would really set in I had around 1/10-1/12 in SNE 1/12-1/15 NYC and didn't feel good about the MA or Deep South til 1/20-1/25 or later. I may be a week early on all of them anyway

[AnthonyDabbundo]

did someone say they were tired of day 10 threats? Well I see your 10 day threat and raise you a 13 day threat!

 

 

 

[BTRWx]

I think it will be just a mess much like most of the cutters have been so far, it'll be an unphased weakening piece of junk if I had to guess right now. I was by far more pessimistic on when the pattern change would really set in I had around 1/10-1/12 in SNE 1/12-1/15 NYC and didn't feel good about the MA or Deep South til 1/20-1/25 or later. I may be a week early on all of them anyway

Thank you for the fair answer. We're still aiming high on euro para!

[DTWXRISK]

WHATS   GOING   WRONG at least  According to the GFS / CMC  / UKMET 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ian]

Just so many waves. As soon as you get a little break and some ridging out west something goes boom. It's going to be tough if they keep that kind of spacing. But................ something's gonna do it. Just gotta wait for the right time. The right time is not next weekend I don't think.

[DTWXRISK]

0z  CMC ENSEMBLE  144 -150 168    its warmer  and  its  rain for everyone in I-95   or MOSTLY  rain   except for BOSTON

 

  and GFS ensemble  is  warmer as well  even for  Boston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DTWXRISK]

 um   just like snowmaggedon    pattern?     REALLY? 

[Ian]

 um   just like snowmaggedon    pattern?     REALLY? 

does JB post here?

[BTRWx]

0z  CMC ENSEMBLE  144 -150 168    its warmer  and  its  rain for everyone in I-95   or MOSTLY  rain   except for BOSTON

 

  and GFS ensemble  is  warmer as well  even for  Boston

 

 

CMC-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f144.png

 

 

CMC-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f168.png

 

 

GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f144.png

In other words, ensembles are still really jumpy, right?

[SnowGoose69]

um just like snowmaggedon pattern? REALLY?

I would describe it more like a late January into February 2010 look to the pattern vs specifying the storm as he did. The look the last few runs of the GFS ENS after day 9 does really have that look with the southern branch and suppressed cold down into GA and FL although I doubt Miami will be seeing a 5 day stretch again of 54/37 like they did then

[Heisy]

I'm excited about the 20th-24th...lol...we are insane. 

[Ian]

I would describe it more like a late January into February 2010 look to the pattern vs specifying the storm as he did. The look the last few runs of the GFS ENS after day 9 does really have that look with the southern branch and suppressed cold down into GA and FL although I doubt Miami will be seeing a 5 day stretch again of 54/37 like they did then

Mostly just the blocking region. Important of course. But the difference in the Pac is significant for starters. Late 2009 and early 2010 have showed up in the analogs plenty, but way more often than not they've shown dates after the snowstorms. The cold and drier or lesser snow analogs have dominated throughout. We escape these patterns 'unscathed' at times but we'll need some bad luck or strong ninoing to get nothing.

 

People like to run to memorable events. The intensity of the blocking puts it above a large number of events, which of course also makes folks want to run to 09/10. Also generally bad memories so limited events to run to. Even those who recall Dec 2010 often forget we had pretty awesome blocking in early (err, really all of now that I look) March 2013.. worked out for some of us at least.

[Heisy]

00z EURO @ 120 hours it is an inland runner, but there is some energy hanging back around the 4 corners. I doubt it, but I wonder if there is a chance that something comes of that. We'll c

[Deck Pic]

12z Euro Para looks better than the OP for next weekend.  While the OP took the secondary north to near Buffalo, the Para tracks it to TN and WV before the coastal takes over.  999 east of OBX.  

 

 

it's like 4-8" for DC metro....Total outlier, but maybe it is clued into something

 

1. Would you be asking this if the op euro looked better?

2. Do you throw away all your old toys the second you get a new one.

3. It's not operational yet still technically in the final testing stage. It's not available in time for most forecasting cycles to be useful.

 

It's out like 6 hours after the euro.  That's not that big of a delay.  I have no idea how it does with east coast storms.  

[MillvilleWx]

 

To be more on point. Y'all are getting too wound up looking at these op runs. Give it a few days until we've cleared the board a bit and have some more clarity. Some of you are like the stock market, when you start selling it turns into a rush to the exits. 

 

 

This!!! Thank you 007 

[stormtracker]

So I wake up and see that this thread is a nice bit of pages longer since I left. I'm thinking, "Wow, models must have been decent. I click and maybe 25% deal with model and LR discussion and the rest are extended posts about borders, another forum and what the mid Atlantic is. Take it to banter.

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[stormtracker]

Anyway, I'm not sure why anybody would throw in the towel or lock in a solution on models that change basic evolution of features every 6 hours.

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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

it's like 4-8" for DC metro....Total outlier, but maybe it is clued into something

 

 

It's out like 6 hours after the euro.  That's not that big of a delay.  I have no idea how it does with east coast storms.  

 

Yes please.  Perhaps the ensembles will offer some hope of this solution today.

[mappy]

Anyway, I'm not sure why anybody would throw in the towel or lock in a solution on models that change basic evolution of features every 6 hours.

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Because weenies. But thank you for cleaning up the thread. Appreciate it, boss! 

[psuhoffman]

Anyway, I'm not sure why anybody would throw in the towel or lock in a solution on models that change basic evolution of features every 6 hours.

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Its troubling though that as we start to get to the range where the global operationals can be useful they begin to converge on a really awful result.  Its far enough out that it could shift but its not like this is still 10 days out and jumping all over with different solutions on each model, they are all saying this goes well west of us now.  Again not game over but were down 20 in the 4th quarter. 

[psuhoffman]

does JB post here?

JB just figured out what some of us said over a week ago, that were going to have problems until the jet slows down.  He actually admitted his snow idea for the east may not work out because the jet is too strong coming off the pacific and flooding the warm air in regardless of the block.  Welcome to the party JB, fashionably late as usual. 

[psuhoffman]

the 6z run of the GEFS was actually the best for snow this winter.  Its not with next weekends storm though, its focused mainly in the 10-15 day period.  Sounds familiar I know.  GGEM and EPS have a decent look in that period also but EPS seems to have backed down just a bit on the depth of the low heights in the east day 10-15 but the snowfall averages aren't updating so I cant say for sure.  I can say the day 6-7 threat is looking pretty dead on all 3.  And YES its troubling to me that we keep pushing our window back into the fantasy range.  It didn't bother me as much with the last few as I expected models to rush things but to see the 14th and 17th threats go the same way really does cause me some doubts.  Both are basically encourtering the same issue, too much northern jet off the pacific driving everything to our north.  THe down side is that is definitely enhanced by the NINO so there is an argument that problem isnt going away.  The up side is as we head later into winter the jet will naturally buckle more and wavelenghts shorten and that may be why we see snow chances increase later in winter in general, but especially in a Nino. 

[mappy]

the 6z run of the GEFS was actually the best for snow this winter.  Its not with next weekends storm though, its focused mainly in the 10-15 day period.  Sounds familiar I know.  GGEM and EPS have a decent look in that period also but EPS seems to have backed down just a bit on the depth of the low heights in the east day 10-15 but the snowfall averages aren't updating so I cant say for sure.  I can say the day 6-7 threat is looking pretty dead on all 3.  And YES its troubling to me that we keep pushing our window back into the fantasy range.  It didn't bother me as much with the last few as I expected models to rush things but to see the 14th and 17th threats go the same way really does cause me some doubts.  Both are basically encourtering the same issue, too much northern jet off the pacific driving everything to our north.  THe down side is that is definitely enhanced by the NINO so there is an argument that problem isnt going away.  The up side is as we head later into winter the jet will naturally buckle more and wavelenghts shorten and that may be why we see snow chances increase later in winter in general, but especially in a Nino. 

 

Nice summary -- looking at the H5 maps, you can clearly see the problem. Every L dropping south just hits a wall and is pushed back north to the GL. It's not until the 23rd that a L actually makes it the gulf and up the coast. Like you said, really need the jet to calm down some and allow system to come all the way south.