Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The d6-7 storm is a good test for the euro para irt our yards. Still too early but tomorrow is d5-6 so the tail end of good skill for ops. The 12z para run says snow here. But still a jacked up complicated progression. If the para catches on to the possibility first then I'm a believer. Jury is out and even then this is only one specific point in time. It's easy to not pay attention when a model nails a 1045 hp overhead but another one said 1035 tops. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm no pro and still learning but out to 108 hours and the trough is already going neg before Arkansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 LOL Greenland block and 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the problem is it goes negative too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the problem is it goes negative too early.I could be wrong, but looking at a loop of the 500mb maps I noticed that the problem seems to be our 50/50 low is slowly moving west along with the other vort north of the GL that's a problem too. So I looked east to see what's up and look what we have....a monster block in the Eastern Atlantic that is causing everything to get pushed away from its ideal location. That's gotta get out of there or we're fooked for some time to come imho.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=111ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_111_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160111+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the problem is it goes negative too early. Yes, true in this case but not all negatively tilted troughs bomb. and pull up a ton of warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll save some keystrokes. The gfs is a complete disaster for the entire east coast next weekend. No other disco necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is almost laughable But key changes there is FINALLY a high on the run. and the coastal storm that has been taken OTS for 12+ runs has moved significantly back. GGEM has been saying the first wave will be the producer and looks like GFS wants to take it that way too. this is no where near a final solution for this clueless model. Personally i dont think it cuts like that. it goes further east interacts with the coastal bomb and floods cold air in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll save some keystrokes. The gfs is a complete disaster for the entire east coast next weekend. No other disco necessary I think the writing has been on the wall for a while, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll save some keystrokes. The gfs is a complete disaster for the entire east coast next weekend. No other disco necessary I have been more focusing on early next week time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll save some keystrokes. The gfs is a complete disaster for the entire east coast next weekend. No other disco necessary Also a disaster for the sw that follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is almost laughable But key changes there is FINALLY a high on the run. and the coastal storm that has been taken OTS for 12+ runs has moved significantly back. GGEM has been saying the first wave will be the producer and looks like GFS wants to take it that way too. this is no where near a final solution for this clueless model. Personally i dont think it cuts like that. it goes further east interacts with the coastal bomb and floods cold air inNope--I don't think we can trust the gfs this month at all. It appears to be batting zero with even just the temps--I'm personally not putting any stock in it whatsoever (and it's certainly not worth jumping off the cliff over!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This run keeps the Greenland block through 180hrs. Previous model runs wrecked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I have been more focusing on early next week time period I was just posting irt the model run. No sense looking beyond next weekend for 3 days or so. This probably isn't a good period to write stuff off outside of 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll save some keystrokes. The gfs is a complete disaster for the entire east coast next weekend. No other disco necessary as it should a week before an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS caught Tuesday's clipper before any of the other models, and run to run hasn't been changing much within 96 hours. Outside of that it can't make up its mind. So my guess is that we really won't know anything about next weekend for at least another 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS caught Tuesday's clipper before any of the other models, and run to run hasn't been changing much within 96 hours. Outside of that it can't make up its mind. So my guess is that we really won't know anything about next weekend for at least another 48 hours? I don't think the euro has been so bullish with the clipper. The gfs hasn't scored the points yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Sorry to ask this here and someone can move this to banter but what happened that the philly forum ended up dead? I don't know why they did....but tombo and other Philly posters started another forum strictly for the Philadelphia region. I post there sometimes of course since a lot of the Philly mets. post there. Just being part of the wx forum community since wright-weather & TWC I will always feel biased to this forum. As for the GFS run, way inland for day 6 low, but there is a bit of potential for the one beyond that. Seems like we've been saying that for days now so it is kind of painful, but just need to be patient I guess. As Bob said this is a big test for the Para EURO. If it changes tonight towards GFS my trust in it going forward won't be as high. Either the GFS is completely off its rockers or it is going to be leading the back (though the Canadian has had this idea for a while too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not sure how the in between frames look But UKMET looks good. this should be a miller B transfer near VA. just need more interaction and or a faster northern stream to flood the cold in and set the stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I don't think the euro has been so bullish with the clipper. The gfs hasn't scored the points yet. Fair enough. GFS has had the idea for several days now and hasn't wavered much. I guess we will see how it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not sure how the in between frames look But UKMET looks good. this should be a miller B transfer near VA. just need more interaction Primary into lake Eerie at least, that's not a good look for the 95 corridor in the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not sure how the in between frames look But UKMET looks good. this should be a miller B transfer near VA. just need more interaction The H5 map doesn't look to good though, and the primary is too deep, so it's probably rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ravens, a 996 over Pitt is a disaster. There is nothing positive on those panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ravens, a 996 over Pitt is a disaster. There is nothing positive on those panels By that point the cold would be flooded in due to the trough going negative. its all going to be on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS is doing what it hs been doing for several runs the Ukmet is a big ass rainstorm for everyonme The H5 map doesn't look to good though, and the primary is too deep, so it's probably rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 By that point the cold would be flooded in due to the trough going negative. its all going to be on timing No it won't. The lp in western PA will ensure that the surface and midlevels are wrecked. The cold will be coming from north Carolina and the Atlantic Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 are you fooking drunk or high? lol people are really desperate for snow... The SV Model has a 20-30" blizzard Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 then use SV they DO have the surface map and 50 mb maps etc and it coems out sooner on SV than it does on wxbell I definitely see your point but my 'issue' is the lack of the more sophisticated and detailed maps that WxBell makes available for it vs the OP. I can see the basics on WxBell but it's nowhere near what they have for the OP. Also, it doesn't come out until 3 or so hours after the OP (not a big deal but when the OP is there staring you in the face, you can't help but look ). I think it's good to look at both but put a bit more confidence in the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM Bombs that secondary 970 in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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