January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[DTWXRISK]

yes  the   12Z EURO paral is  MUCH  better  as the  PJ drops into  Uper Miss Valley  120  to 144   hrs  which  keeps the  southern low  south   

[Heisy]

What a disastrous 18z GFS , lets just pretend it didn't happen, onto 00z....Awesome posts DT 

[mitchnick]

What a disastrous 18z GFS , lets just pretend it didn't happen, onto 00z....Awesome posts DT

Since no 18z gfs run for 6+days has ever verified, we toss with gusto.

[BTRWx]

yes the 12Z EURO paral is MUCH better as the PJ drops into Uper Miss Valley 120 to 144 hrs which keeps the southern low south

Thanks for adding your insight. Good stuff!

[Ji]

Where do u access euro para

[Maestrobjwa]

yes the 12Z EURO paral is MUCH better as the PJ drops into Uper Miss Valley 120 to 144 hrs which keeps the southern low south

Now one thing JB has been pointing out about the GFS over the last month or so: That it's trended too warm--Warmer than what has actually ended up happening...I'm wondering if we need to take that into consideration when looking at that particular model.

[Wonderdog]

We are approximately 5-6 days away from the possible weekend event. Whenwill all players be on the field, by about Wed.?

[Amped]

From what I can see the warm air showing up on models originates from the Pacific, not the gulf or the Atlantic.

 

IMO the main problem is the PNA ridge and the associated airmass get shoved east when the shortwave moves onshore. If somehow the Pacific shortwave undercuts the ridge without disturbing it there will be a lot more cold air left behind for us and everyone east of the rockies.

[DTWXRISK]

SV  HAS  IT 

 

Where do u access euro para

[Maestrobjwa]

SV HAS IT

The SV? (And what does it have?)

[BristowWx]

Storm Vista...the para

[Heisy]

The SV? (And what does it have?)

 

lol people are really desperate for snow...

 

The SV Model has a 20-30" blizzard Day 6. 

[yoda]

Day 9 to Day 16 total snowfall on the 18z GEFS individ members are decent... about half (10 of 20) show 3" or more for DCA during that time period... more N and W of course

[HighStakes]

I would've have really like to see what the models we have today would have been showing for the first January storm in 87 in the 4-7 day range. I've always been intrigued with this storm. Forecasts for a couple inches turning to rain was probably one of the worst busts. Temps fell from around freezing to the mid 20's and the snow starting ripping. There was some impassive banding and rates were up to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. Living northwest of the city just outside the beltway at the time I think we had to be one of the jackpot areas receiving well over a foot. Thunder and lightning as well. 

 

We we're stuck in such an abysmal pattern up until that storm. If I had to guess I would say the prospects for a MECS a week before that storm would've looked bleak. If anyone has any recollection of the days leading up to this storm and why things shifted so dramatically in our favor almost overnight I would like to hear about it. Also curious to know if anyone sees any similarities as to where we are now compared to the week before that storm.

[Heisy]

I would've have really like to see what the models we have today would have been showing for the first January storm in 87 in the 4-7 day range. I've always been intrigued with this storm. Forecasts for a couple inches turning to rain was probably one of the worst busts. Temps fell from around freezing to the mid 20's and the snow starting ripping. There was some impassive banding and rates were up to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. Living northwest of the city just outside the beltway at the time I think we had to be one of the jackpot areas receiving well over a foot. Thunder and lightning as well. 

 

We we're stuck in such an abysmal pattern up until that storm. If I had to guess I would say the prospects for a MECS a week before that storm would've looked bleak. If anyone has any recollection of the days leading up to this storm and why things shifted so dramatically in our favor almost overnight I would like to hear about it. Also curious to know if anyone sees any similarities as to where we are now compared to the week before that storm.

 

 

Well considering the technology & observation ability we have now vs. then is like 100x better hard to compare. We have had storms creep up on us (Jan 2000, Dec 2009)...Hell, here in Philadelphia the Eagles/Lions snow bowl game COMPLETELY snuck up on us the day of the storm. Most of the models (even the 6z runs) had most of the heavy stuff staying near you guys, but we ended up with a mesoscale band that trained over us...

 

The only positives I can see right now when it comes to modeling is the fact that the Para EURO has a snowier solution & some of the ensembles look pretty good. The fact that we got a block in the first place gives me hope for the rest of the winter.

[Heisy]

I do have a question to Mets. and posters...

 

It is my understanding that the Para EURO is scoring higher than the OP & is going to replacing the OP in March. 

 

IF that is true (tell me if it isn't) why are we even looking at the OP EURO? Shouldn't we be focusing on the new EURO? 

[psuhoffman]

I do have a question to Mets. and posters...

It is my understanding that the Para EURO is scoring higher than the OP & is going to replacing the OP in March.

IF that is true (tell me if it isn't) why are we even looking at the OP EURO? Shouldn't we be focusing on the new EURO?

1. Would you be asking this if the op euro looked better?

2. Do you throw away all your old toys the second you get a new one.

3. It's not operational yet still technically in the final testing stage. It's not available in time for most forecasting cycles to be useful.

[Fozz]

Well considering the technology & observation ability we have now vs. then is like 100x better hard to compare. We have had storms creep up on us (Jan 2000, Dec 2009)...Hell, here in Philadelphia the Eagles/Lions snow bowl game COMPLETELY snuck up on us the day of the storm. Most of the models (even the 6z runs) had most of the heavy stuff staying near you guys, but we ended up with a mesoscale band that trained over us...

 

The only positives I can see right now when it comes to modeling is the fact that the Para EURO has a snowier solution & some of the ensembles look pretty good. The fact that we got a block in the first place gives me hope for the rest of the winter.

 

Most of the models also had us getting just a few inches, if that, before the changeover to zr, and then rain. That storm was one of the best surprises in recent memory (at least for those of us who were lucky enough to get into that heavy band) and it set the tone for the rest of the winter.

[BTRWx]

I do have a question to Mets. and posters...

 

It is my understanding that the Para EURO is scoring higher than the OP & is going to replacing the OP in March. 

 

IF that is true (tell me if it isn't) why are we even looking at the OP EURO? Shouldn't we be focusing on the new EURO? 

Same reasons we watch the gfs and para.

[mitchnick]

I would've have really like to see what the models we have today would have been showing for the first January storm in 87 in the 4-7 day range. I've always been intrigued with this storm. Forecasts for a couple inches turning to rain was probably one of the worst busts. Temps fell from around freezing to the mid 20's and the snow starting ripping. There was some impassive banding and rates were up to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. Living northwest of the city just outside the beltway at the time I think we had to be one of the jackpot areas receiving well over a foot. Thunder and lightning as well.

We we're stuck in such an abysmal pattern up until that storm. If I had to guess I would say the prospects for a MECS a week before that storm would've looked bleak. If anyone has any recollection of the days leading up to this storm and why things shifted so dramatically in our favor almost overnight I would like to hear about it. Also curious to know if anyone sees any similarities as to where we are now compared to the week before that storm.

They were forecasting 10"+ imby south of BWI, and possibly ending as rain I believe. Bob Ryan was very excited the night before. But you should ask Wes, he was forecasting that day.

[mitchnick]

1. Would you be asking this if the op euro looked better?

2. Do you throw away all your old toys the second you get a new one.

3. It's not operational yet still technically in the final testing stage. It's not available in time for most forecasting cycles to be useful.

Gotta disagree with you for the most part. I seriously doubt major changes would be made since it's already scoring better than the current Euro. I agree with Highzenberg on this one in that we should be focusing on it more but few have Storm Vista so we're a bit handcuffed.

[nj2va]

Gotta disagree with you for the most part. I seriously doubt major changes would be made since it's already scoring better than the current Euro. I agree with Highzenberg on this one in that we should be focusing on it more but few have Storm Vista so we're a bit handcuffed.

I definitely see your point but my 'issue' is the lack of the more sophisticated and detailed maps that WxBell makes available for it vs the OP. I can see the basics on WxBell but it's nowhere near what they have for the OP. Also, it doesn't come out until 3 or so hours after the OP (not a big deal but when the OP is there staring you in the face, you can't help but look ). I think it's good to look at both but put a bit more confidence in the para.

[psuhoffman]

Gotta disagree with you for the most part. I seriously doubt major changes would be made since it's already scoring better than the current Euro. I agree with Highzenberg on this one in that we should be focusing on it more but few have Storm Vista so we're a bit handcuffed.

I don't think we really disagree I just meant that the para being not operational yet isn't fully available or in real time and can be unreliable. I doubt they are making any changes at all to it but until it's fully available in a timely and reliable way it's not really useful to mets who need to issue a forecast. And why we still look at the op us because it's out at 1 and the para isn't for a couple more hours. I also think we are junkies and will look at anything we can. If they still ran the old gfs we would probably look at it just to see what it spits out. These improvements are incremental. The older versions arent suddenly garbage. The old euro could still beat the upgraded one from time to time especially at day 6. At that range it's like blind drunk darts anyways.

[usedtobe]

I would've have really like to see what the models we have today would have been showing for the first January storm in 87 in the 4-7 day range. I've always been intrigued with this storm. Forecasts for a couple inches turning to rain was probably one of the worst busts. Temps fell from around freezing to the mid 20's and the snow starting ripping. There was some impassive banding and rates were up to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. Living northwest of the city just outside the beltway at the time I think we had to be one of the jackpot areas receiving well over a foot. Thunder and lightning as well. 

 

We we're stuck in such an abysmal pattern up until that storm. If I had to guess I would say the prospects for a MECS a week before that storm would've looked bleak. If anyone has any recollection of the days leading up to this storm and why things shifted so dramatically in our favor almost overnight I would like to hear about it. Also curious to know if anyone sees any similarities as to where we are now compared to the week before that storm

I remember putting out a forecast for 8 inches or more for DCA in a 12 hour period on one of the old HPC snow forecast back when they were deterministic.  The NGM had all snow but was the new model on the block and it was the only model forecasting all snow.  If I remember correctly it had a really nice double jet streak on the output.  MOdels were way less sophisticated back then.  The PE model most of that year had a bias of keeping the northern edge of storms too far south along the east coast. 

[SnowGoose69]

I would've have really like to see what the models we have today would have been showing for the first January storm in 87 in the 4-7 day range. I've always been intrigued with this storm. Forecasts for a couple inches turning to rain was probably one of the worst busts. Temps fell from around freezing to the mid 20's and the snow starting ripping. There was some impassive banding and rates were up to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. Living northwest of the city just outside the beltway at the time I think we had to be one of the jackpot areas receiving well over a foot. Thunder and lightning as well.

We we're stuck in such an abysmal pattern up until that storm. If I had to guess I would say the prospects for a MECS a week before that storm would've looked bleak. If anyone has any recollection of the days leading up to this storm and why things shifted so dramatically in our favor almost overnight I would like to hear about it. Also curious to know if anyone sees any similarities as to where we are now compared to the week before that storm.

It was totally blown up in NYC the forecast was 1-2 changing to rain it ended up as 8-12 ending as a bit of sleet and rain and many cars stranded on the road

[HighStakes]

I remember putting out a forecast for 8 inches or more for DCA in a 12 hour period on one of the old HPC snow forecast back when they were deterministic. The NGM had all snow but was the new model on the block and it was the only model forecasting all snow. If I remember correctly it had a really nice double jet streak on the output. MOdels were way less sophisticated back then. The PE model most of that year had a bias of keeping the northern edge of storms too far south along the east coast.

Interesting. Hoping there is a similar occurrence this year with the back to back storms even if it is a little brother version.

[mitchnick]

I don't think we really disagree I just meant that the para being not operational yet isn't fully available or in real time and can be unreliable. I doubt they are making any changes at all to it but until it's fully available in a timely and reliable way it's not really useful to mets who need to issue a forecast. And why we still look at the op us because it's out at 1 and the para isn't for a couple more hours. I also think we are junkies and will look at anything we can. If they still ran the old gfs we would probably look at it just to see what it spits out. These improvements are incremental. The older versions arent suddenly garbage. The old euro could still beat the upgraded one from time to time especially at day 6. At that range it's like blind drunk darts anyways.

I agree except for one thing. If they upgraded the NAM, the old version would be garbage! Lol.

Uh oh, I detect dtk...yikes!!!

[Heisy]

1. Would you be asking this if the op euro looked better?

2. Do you throw away all your old toys the second you get a new one.

3. It's not operational yet still technically in the final testing stage. It's not available in time for most forecasting cycles to be useful.

 

Not at all, I am honestly just curious. Could be a misunderstanding on my part when it comes to the models. Like, if the NGM was still out today it isn't like we would use it just because it's there, we wouldn't. Same with the new/old EURO. Why would you use something that isn't as good as the other. Then again, maybe I am misunderstanding how & why models are updated. 

[Heisy]

I don't think we really disagree I just meant that the para being not operational yet isn't fully available or in real time and can be unreliable. I doubt they are making any changes at all to it but until it's fully available in a timely and reliable way it's not really useful to mets who need to issue a forecast. And why we still look at the op us because it's out at 1 and the para isn't for a couple more hours. I also think we are junkies and will look at anything we can. If they still ran the old gfs we would probably look at it just to see what it spits out. These improvements are incremental. The older versions arent suddenly garbage. The old euro could still beat the upgraded one from time to time especially at day 6. At that range it's like blind drunk darts anyways.

 

Makes sense. Well...00z GFS time. Let's hope for some improvements.

[mitchnick]

I remember putting out a forecast for 8 inches or more for DCA in a 12 hour period on one of the old HPC snow forecast back when they were deterministic. The NGM had all snow but was the new model on the block and it was the only model forecasting all snow. If I remember correctly it had a really nice double jet streak on the output. Models were way less sophisticated back then. The PE model most of that year had a bias of keeping the northern edge of storms too far south along the east coast.

Back then when TWC was still pretty good, Mark Mancuso and Jim Cantori used to be on every night, I think it was an hour starting at 10. They used to call it the Italian Power Hour. Now that High Stakes asked about it, I remember Cantori showing a sat loop 2 or 3 days before it hit us from down in TX and he was marveling how the clouds appeared to be heading backwards, and they did! Anyway, I know it was on the radar of TWC around 3 days prior but there were never any details discussed that "far away" back then. I do believe it was that storm as well that brought snow to Atlanta because Cantori went out in it. And you did a great job with that one Wes as I do recall the NWS had a great forecast imby.