Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The 0z Parallel Euro is a near hit on Saturday. It is a goofy transfer and the secondary runs inland, but it isn't that far off from something. It gives some snow to Hagerstown, MRB, and other areas further inland and north before clocking interior new england... The PARA EPS, put the secondary a little further east though generally supports the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 A few potential problems I see with that setup: low in the GL screws our midlevels and secondary tracks too far north. 850s are actually nice around 1-2 C crashing 6 hours later to -4 surface is 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Not to post to much here But the GEFS Is cold. Sunday-Monday we do have precip according to the GEFS. And the Surface and 850S are below freezing. contrary to the GFS OP solution and is near A GGEM just colder and there is a high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The Euro is pretty gross for Saturday's event...Primary out over Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The euro seems to be splitting three storm systems between the Ohio Valley and just off the Atlantic coast. One might track just to the southeast of D.C with borderline temps before they rise as the flow passes by. None of the systems really take over as a primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Every single GFS ensemble is different. None are even close to each other lol.Not going to post every one but this storm next weekend is going to have tons of different solutions till probably Thursdayhttp://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Euro is warmer than 00z:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GEFS now has a surface reflection eastThe mean snowfall for that period is below 1/2" so without even looking at the members obviously they don't support a storm. A mean can be misleading. 12z was another bad run for the 17th threat. We're kinda losing the signal for anytging significant there. also not much support for the day 10 on the gefs. Better then they looked yesterday in the long range though. Day 15 is the best look on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ggem ensembles are snowier but like last nights eps spread the snow out evenly between 3 periods with no period more then 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The Euro is trying give something at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The Euro is trying give something at 192 hours. Yep typical Nino, warm ULL steals 99.99% of the moisture. Enjoy your 20f and flurries with the cold ULL followed by an offshore bomb that looks close to the untrained eye but nowhere close to the trained one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The 0z Parallel Euro is a near hit on Saturday. It is a goofy transfer and the secondary runs inland, but it isn't that far off from something. It gives some snow to Hagerstown, MRB, and other areas further inland and north before clocking interior new england... The PARA EPS, put the secondary a little further east though generally supports the OP i think even a snow for them would be an encouraging trend. letting the climo favored areas get snow first might be what we need to have happen before we can start scoring here in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 i think even a snow for them would be an encouraging trend. letting the climo favored areas get snow first might be what we need to have happen before we can start scoring here in the tropics. Miller B with no high, optimism is at 5% right now. Models may show snow one run, before making it a Caskills to ORH north event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Eps upped the ante again. Mean snow up to 4.5" at DCA. At least 20 members showing 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Within d10, 10-15, or altogether? Nope. Some decent hits for next weekend in the mix. We can't sleep on that threat even though op guidance is painting an ugly outcome attm. Still low probability but far from zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 That's encouraging. I'll check back on Wednesday Eta: Thanks swe you at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Eps upped the ante again. Mean snow up to 4.5" at DCA. At least 20 members showing 5" Yup, so much potential - I like seeing the EPS upping the mean as we get closer to the threat windows. Ski resorts should be happy, too. Over a foot on the means for Snowshoe/Canaan/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Models can't tell you much but one occurrent pattern this winter can. High pressures have been stronger than anticipated even with no cold air That will continue and not enough cold air will not be the problem maker for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z Euro Para looks better than the OP for next weekend. While the OP took the secondary north to near Buffalo, the Para tracks it to TN and WV before the coastal takes over. 999 east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 According to the GFS northern MD Wont crack 24 degrees Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Northern stream is FLYING this run. gonna be a different outcome then 12z PV also not nearly as split and western side is Much stronger and headed more south then west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Eps upped the ante again. Mean snow up to 4.5" at DCA. At least 20 members showing 5"Digging into the members only 8/52 show anything really for the day 6-8 threat. 2 big hits in there. For the day 10-15 period 19/52 show at least a few inches across our area with 9 big hits of 10"+ somewhere in our area. Oddly only 1/8 that have snow day 6-8 have any day 10-15. That seems like something that gives us snow early actually messes up the later window. So only one double hit but overall 26/52 at least show a decent hit. Several more have at least 1-3" across the area between the two periods but I didn't feel like going that deep. So about a 50% chance of something decent. That's way above climo if not what some would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z Euro Para looks better than the OP for next weekend. While the OP took the secondary north to near Buffalo, the Para tracks it to TN and WV before the coastal takes over. 999 east of OBX.Most years, that's a snowstorm for us with a chanhe overcif cold air is missimg. Still, decent snow first. Good news in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS has officially just changed the WHOLE entire setup once again.The northern stream was kicking SE this run. it has moved over 600 miles in 3 runs. there should be a high near the lakes that is not there yet to keep that storm from coming north. confluence should also increase as the PV continues its move closer. I don't see it cutting like that. gonna take time but there's tons of time for a move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Most years, that's a snowstorm for us with a chanhe overcif cold air is missimg. Still, decent snow first. Good news in any event.It's about 7" for bwi. 6" Dca. Around 8-10 areas northwest of Baltimore. Can't imagine we would complain much about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's about 7" for bwi. 6" Dca. Around 8-10 areas northwest of Baltimore. Can't imagine we would complain much about that.Nope. Not me. Interestingly, I just checked the ensemble mean and look what day 6 shows...pretty dang close to the Para Euro. EDIT for some damn reason, the link for day 6 I am copying keeps coming up as day 10 so you have to go back to day 6 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=eus&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 this is Just some analysis of what recent model trendsI am NOT saying these model solutions are correct but I DO have some concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Nope. Not me. Interestingly, I just checked the ensemble mean and look what day 6 shows...pretty dang close to the Para Euro. EDIT for some damn reason, the link for day 6 I am copying keeps coming up as day 10 so you have to go back to day 6 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=eus&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Here you go http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=eus&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1.jpg 2split.jpg 3SPLIT.jpg Thanks - this is a helpful layman's guide of what to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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