psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just need the northern stream to not lag like it is right now and get some interaction further east. the northern stream has been progressive all year i don't see why it wont be faster in this situation also. right now there is not much interaction between the incoming storm and coastal due to the location. but if the northern stream can kick faster and get some cold air in here in time for the coastal then they can interact hopefully and transfer all to the coastal.what you see as minor I see as a major change. Go back a couple days to when we started seeing next weekend as a threat. Look at the h5 differences now. Instead of a 50/50 it's an elongated pv that digs into the upper Midwest raising heights in the east. The whole trough axis is shifted. That's not minor. If that h5 configuration is true then we have little chance. Anything that develops will cut well west. We're not talking about needing some small shift in slp or cad to hold a little more, that's a major thing. It's far enough out that it can change and it's not game over but I'm not going to cherry coat it either, things are going the wrong way. I think some are seperate and so will cling to this threat even if it's not looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Based on all 3 ensembles the jan 20-22 looks like the one with the most potential if I had to get on one to produce. lol it went from Jan 12 to jan 15-16 to jan 18-19 and now jan 20-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS likes 1/21 big time! The GFS likes every storm in 10-12 day timeframe this year... just to lose it for good two days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I disagree. Big storms can come on the flip from neg to neutral or even positive. I don't have the graphs in front of me but there are plenty of examples. Sometimes the relaxing block is what keeps a storm from going straight out to sea or suppressed. I may be overthinking things, but I enjoy doing it! Instead of viewing it as pulling a needle out of a haystack, to me it's more like gathering as many data points as possible to try to decrease deviations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 What would this forum look like if all of NC was under 1-2 feet of snow as the GFS depicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Still a work in progress as I'm going down the list to at least 8" snowstorms so I can start grouping them by features when they happened. A blocking pattern like the one ahead is notorious for big storms but it's not the sole way to get them by far. In other ENSO phases the looks are actually often different. That aside.... 12z GFS near init Composite of Greenland/Hudson big block storms that dropped 10"+ at DC, from 10 days out: Not the same pattern we have necessarily though there are important similarities. One thing worth really noting is the blocking sig is pretty pronounced at 10 days out. Interestingly, when you roll this around there is a signature of a precursor event prior to the main event. A number of them have it. Not all. You can sort of see it in the 3D to 2D out panel and it seems to influence the 50/50. Anom in TX scoots east and becomes part of bigger anom east. Rolling forward again shows a new anom in S Plains/MS Valley region next day. Plenty of these patterns don't produce giants but I think there's elevated, perhaps better than 50/50, risk of a significant to major EC storm in this window. I'd favor the wave the GFS blew up today as well, that seems to be the main signal for now and it makes sense watching the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 What would this forum look like if all of NC was under 1-2 feet of snow as the GFS depicts The Panic room would explode. I like our chances for that storm hitting the 95 corridor than NC but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I suppose there is a reason mid Atlantic region does not have a great number of snow storms in this time frame historically. My guess is it's a wavelength thing. Big ticket snows with phasing often happen during ninos and we know the lag effect from strong ones. No surprise blizzard of 96 was a Nina I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 What would this forum look like if all of NC was under 1-2 feet of snow as the GFS depicts I think we all would be happy another group of weather enthusiasts had some much needed snow. And we would applaud their good fortune. Then we would go to our liquor cabinets and.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think the thing I like to see more than anything else in winter is a strong high around Montreal to Bangor. It may not be conducive for big storms but it produces more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Still a work in progress as I'm going down the list to at least 8" snowstorms so I can start grouping them by features when they happened. A blocking pattern like the one ahead is notorious for big storms but it's not the sole way to get them by far. In other ENSO phases the looks are actually often different. That aside.... 12z GFS near init Composite of Greenland/Hudson big block storms that dropped 10"+ at DC, from 10 days out: Not the same pattern we have necessarily though there are important similarities. One thing worth really noting is the blocking sig is pretty pronounced at 10 days out. Interestingly, when you roll this around there is a signature of a precursor event prior to the main event. A number of them have it. Not all. You can sort of see it in the 3D to 2D out panel and it seems to influence the 50/50. Anom in TX scoots east and becomes part of bigger anom east. Rolling forward again shows a new anom in S Plains/MS Valley region next day. Plenty of these patterns don't produce giants but I think there's elevated, perhaps better than 50/50, risk of a significant to major EC storm in this window. I'd favor the wave the GFS blew up today as well, that seems to be the main signal for now and it makes sense watching the progression. So now you're agreeing with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So now you're agreeing with me? I thought you said weekend or no go. This is the storm after that. I've not really wavered much on this just haven't commented much as I don't really see the pt in dissecting every run in so much frantic detail. Should also clarify the storms above held some fashion of the big block the day of the storm. There are a number of others that had the block there a week or two out and then it disappeared into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I thought you said weekend or no go. This is the storm after that. I've not really wavered much on this just haven't commented much as I don't really see the pt in dissecting every run in so much frantic detail. We really need the like button, cause this is a great post. This thread becomes unreadable at times, there is no point is getting worked up over every 6 hour model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I thought you said weekend or no go. This is the storm after that. I've not really wavered much on this just haven't commented much as I don't really see the pt in dissecting every run in so much frantic detail. Should also clarify the storms above held some fashion of the big block the day of the storm. There are a number of others that had the block there a week or two out and then it disappeared into the storm. I don't think that's a yes or no solution. I just feel the timing of blocking with our lowest indices being modeled will be a bigger factor than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 162 = chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 We really need the like button, cause this is a great post. This thread becomes unreadable at times, there is no point is getting worked up over every 6 hour model runWell it's ubderstandable. I look at some point in general.. At least at the most recent runs if not live. But there's been a lot of absolutes thrown around the past few days by various people. Pretty much everything is on the table tho for a while it seems we tighten up into a pretty solid look for someone in the mid atl or southeast in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well it's ubderstandable. I look at some point in general.. At least at the most recent runs if not live. But there's been a lot of absolutes thrown around the past few days by various people. Pretty much everything is on the table tho for a while it seems we tighten up into a pretty solid look for someone in the mid atl or southeast in particular. Excellent point! I was thinking that exact same thing including some of my own thoughts. That needed to be addressed, so thanks for that. eta: Awesome invention! "ubderstandable" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Excellent point! I was thinking that exact same thing including some of my own thoughts. That needed to be addressed, so thanks for that. Like I said it's understandable.. this is a wx forum. People should post what they want if the group is cool with it. As folks like psu have pointed out tho we're still largely in pattern watching time. Any of these smaller details are subject to change and many can wreck things. The progression of the block across the ensembles is very encouraging IMO. I'd be a little surprised from where we stand now if there's not a major event somewhere in the d ~8-14 range. I'm still not as sold as some that the blocking will hold long term -- think there is a growing signal it won't actually (but the models have done awful up there). I feel better about seeing it again given this episode either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z GGEM arctic air dump ftw Day 7-9... highs in the 20s for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Excellent point! I was thinking that exact same thing including some of my own thoughts. That needed to be addressed, so thanks for that. I've ignored more people in the last 3 days, than in all my previous time here. I lurk here and post mostly in obs thread, the upcoming period looks pretty good for our area in terms of wintry weather chances. Will it produce, who knows, let's sit back analyze and enjoy and not jump to conclusions every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I may be overthinking things, but I enjoy doing it! Instead of viewing it as pulling a needle out of a haystack, to me it's more like gathering as many data points as possible to try to decrease deviations. It's easy to over think. But our region requires luck almost every single time. By luck I mean important timing and placement of features that can't be picked up on until fairly close in. Like inside of hr120. Sure there are obvious flags that pop up outside of that time but run over run op analysis shouldn't begin until we're closer in than many of us have patience for (me included). But I've gotten much more patient over the years and don't get hung up to much run over run. The d7-8 thing has an obvious potential problem but it's not set in stone yet. My wag is the best case is a mixed, light, or messy event. But important details have several days to go before making any definitive statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The plot you have posted is for 500 hPa temperature anomaly correlation. Here is the figure for NH 500 Z AC: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ensm/allmodel/daily/dieoff/cordieoff_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png This doesn't change your overall point, however... The Canadian ensemble system is actually pretty well designed. It is a full-fledged single core (unlike the SREF) multi-model/physics ensemble that uses and EnKF for initial uncertainty. The NAEFS is a great tool and should be used much more than it currently is. You're right, I put up the wrong chart. Sorry about that. Thanks for the reply - very interesting as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's easy to over think. But our region requires luck almost every single time. By luck I mean important timing and placement of features that can't be picked up on until fairly close in. Like inside of hr120. Sure there are obvious flags that pop up outside of that time but run over run op analysis shouldn't begin until we're closer in than many of us have patience for (me included). But I've gotten much more patient over the years and don't get hung up to much run over run. The d7-8 thing has an obvious potential problem but it's not set in stone yet. My wag is the best case is a mixed, light, or messy event. But important details have several days to go before making any definitive statements. We all know that will never happen. Second bold thought needs to be emphasized. That I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GEFS now has a surface reflection east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GEFS now has a surface reflection east Central Greenland block? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GEFS now has a surface reflection east It did at 0z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Past 3 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Past 3 GEFS Nice looking high signal seems to be strengthening north of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GEFS now has a surface reflection east A few potential problems I see with that setup: low in the GL screws our midlevels and secondary tracks too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 A few potential problems I see with that setup: low in the GL screws our midlevels and secondary tracks too far north. To me it looks like it disappears (less blue shading on top map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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