mattie g Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yes hence just because you have a block does not mean you get snow lesson learned comes down to timing too Lesson learned for whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Why do you think it isn't more widely available? I have no idea. Perhaps because most end-users simply do not know much about it. Both NCEP and CMC regularly make graphics and a lot of the output is readily available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ruin the party? That looks good time for a storm as that nao rises, and the pan looks stout for the whole period. All or nothing for the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lesson learned for whom? That is correct Mattie I had this preconceived thought that a -nao is what you need for snow ...it is just one factor this set up proves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 besides amwx where can you get this output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS made improvements in Canada this run. GFS does scream potential for next weekend in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 All or nothing for the weekend!Except those indices don't imply were done after next weekend. The nao stays negative and may be reloading towards the end. The pna remains positive and the epo is dropping day 10-15. What about that says its all or nothing day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GGEM has changed totally from 6z - 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 That is correct Mattie I had this preconceived thought that a -nao is what you need for snow ...it is just one factor this set up proves it. Gotcha. Unfortunately, the Mid-Atlantic isn't an area where just having one or two pieces of the puzzle will dramatically increase odds of snow. As others have said many times before, we can fail even with the best of setups. Now...having robust blocking definitely gives a level of comfort and can help us significantly, but it can never be viewed as a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS made improvements in Canada this run. GFS does scream potential for next weekend in my opinionNeed some changes up to our north. Gfs is back to the idea of northern stream dominant with a system to our north. That don't work no matter what the stj does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Except those indices don't imply were done after next weekend. The nao stays negative and may be reloading towards the end. The pna remains positive and the epo is dropping day 10-15. What about that says its all or nothing day 7? Well said. I think we're going to be tracking for quite a while - even if it's tracking things in the medium to longer range for the next couple weeks. And it wouldn't be terribly surprising if we have a pop-up threat or two to help us along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think this works http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=naefs&area=namer&cycle=20160110%2006%20UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps= ty very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Except those indices don't imply were done after next weekend. The nao stays negative and may be reloading towards the end. The pna remains positive and the epo is dropping day 10-15. What about that says its all or nothing day 7? I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb. I disagree. Big storms can come on the flip from neg to neutral or even positive. I don't have the graphs in front of me but there are plenty of examples. Sometimes the relaxing block is what keeps a storm from going straight out to sea or suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 In my mind, if we can get a good storm next weekend it sets the stage for a colder pattern to reload easier with the snow-cover, which would be absolutely perfect for us. At the same time, if we lose a storm when all the indices are primed directly prior to any sort of rise in the nao, don't you think it would become more difficult to reload what we want? I'm not trying to jump to conclusions just yet. I just think next weekend's results will be a big key to the pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 CMC Has definitely changed this run Colder and a hybrid type system. coastal is there and MUCH stronger then 00z. headed into the right direction here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Frame before. Not much needed here. Definitely improved and under 140 hours now on the ggem. GFS is about 20 hours slower with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 CMC Has definitely changed this run Colder and a hybrid type system. coastal is there and MUCH stronger then 00z. headed into the right direction hereI kind of see the same general problem with both the gfs and ggem that they drop that peice of the pv down into the lakes and this pump the heights ahead of it here. That allows the northern stream to amplify and run a system to our north. Once that happens the stj is irrelevant its game over for us. Bob posted how that issue seems less likely in the day 10-15 period but right now it's really mucking up the day 6-8 period. Plenty of time to change but that idea has shown up several runs now and hadn't reversed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS is screensaver worthy at 240. That is pretty at least for SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I kind of see the same general problem with both the gfs and ggem that they drop that peice of the pv down into the lakes and this pump the heights ahead of it here. That allows the northern stream to amplify and run a system to our north. Once that happens the stj is irrelevant its game over for us. Bob posted how that issue seems less likely in the day 10-15 period but right now it's really mucking up the day 6-8 period. Plenty of time to change but that idea has shown up several runs now and hadn't reversed yet. Agreed its not good right now But wont take much to change it .HUGE timing differences between 2 models tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Frame before. Not much needed here. Definitely improved and under 140 hours now on the ggem. GFS is about 20 hours slower with everything.just looking at slp it's close but look at h5. If the storm does amp more why would the coastal be the one to do it? Look how far back the trough is? That has cutter all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 just looking at slp it's close but look at h5. If the storm does amp more why would the coastal be the one to do it? Look how far back the trough is? That has cutter all over it. Just need the northern stream to not lag like it is right now and get some interaction further east. the northern stream has been progressive all year i don't see why it wont be faster in this situation also. right now there is not much interaction between the incoming storm and coastal due to the location. but if the northern stream can kick faster and get some cold air in here in time for the coastal then they can interact hopefully and transfer all to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS likes 1/21 big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The GFS has a different evolution every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS likes 1/21 big time!After the weekend tho. #failboat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Based on all 3 ensembles the jan 20-22 looks like the one with the most potential if I had to get on one to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb. Several of our KU storms occur when the negative NAO is transitioning to neutral or even positive. Even a neutral NAO can act as a mechanism to slow storms along the east coast. So it does offer a better probably of having a snowstorm based on the previous teleconnections plot you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS likes 1/21 big time! Wouldn't take too much to pull that NW. It's a beaut! But that is so far down the line It's just weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I'm gonna take a jog over to the SE forum. They're probably giddy at the GFS. THat's a mauling if I ever saw one. Unfortunately....GFS...10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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