Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Don't get upset over this run guys...we are a LONG way out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The good news? The GFS has a strong shortwave down south. Bad news? There is a pesky ULL over the Lakes from a lobe that breaks off, makes it so HP can't build in that area, The ironic news? That lobe could form another 50/50 @ 192 hours and there is energy coming in from the West. lol Agreed, but it will just split again and send another one there, what's a winter without a low stuck in HB. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 southern energy looks impressive - just need to open up a door to the cold air up north - plenty of time for the northern stream to show some improvement Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Don't get upset over this run guys...we are a LONG way out....Supernino: Failure is always an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The good news? The GFS has a strong shortwave down south. Bad news? There is a pesky ULL over the Lakes from a lobe that breaks off, makes it so HP can't build in that area, The ironic news? That lobe could form another 50/50 @ 192 hours and there is energy coming in from the West. lol Yeah would be perfect if we had a cold high in place, but pacific air has blasted most of the cold air out by the time the storm moves in. Always perfect timing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Supernino: Failure is always an option. Has it not weakened down to strong moderate Nino at this point though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Supernino: Failure is always an option. Any winter in the lowlands of the MA...failure is always a (favored) option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Has it not weakened down to strong moderate Nino at this point though? Not sure what the rules are on that but it's at its peak ONI value thru OND. Plus there's a lag. It decreasing now doesn't mean a whole lot.. it's supposed to be in general tho there are secondary spikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Supernino: Failure is always an option. you almost got it tight. we dont need supernino to fail here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Timing is always important. A block doesn't guarantee anything. Not saying the guidance is correct- it might not be. But on the 0z GFS there is no vortex in the 50-50 region(its displaced too far north), and in fact there is one back over south-central Canada, and a trough is digging into the central US around the 17th. With that set up, a storm track inland/over us is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't know what is worst; this 0z GFS run or the Bengals lack of composure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't know what is worst; this 0z GFS run or the Bengals lack of composure. There were more flakes in that game than in our season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't know what is worst; this 0z GFS run or the Bengals lack of composure. Don't go there. Every scenario is still possible and I'm sure the best is yet to come! Whether that's the final idea only God knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If this whole pattern potential gets ruined because of that piece of crap lobe that breaks off of the PV I will be pretty pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GGEM broke off that lobe and phased it with the S energy as well which is why we get an inland runner. The 00z EURO @ 102 hours looks like it might do the same thing, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lobes are the worst.. Chin up.. the EURO will save us LOL Idk why I call it a lobe....I could say breaks into a separate ULL....Lobe sounds better. Lobe I guess comes from 'ear-lobe'. The ear is an 'extension' of the head, and the ear lobe is an extension of the ear. The ULL lobe is an extension of the PV...i guess that is why I say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 EURO decent look @ 141 hrs. 50/50 is in place, just gotta see if the s/w can stay strong enough and see if we can find the right 'balance' between the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z GEFS looks more favorable for snow for the MA than the op. Low pressure off the NC coast moving NE for the 17-18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I gotta think the euro is gonna cut based on the 144 hour map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I gotta think the euro is gonna cut based on the 144 hour map. Going to be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 @ 168 hrs the lead wave is weakening, but the back side of the trough is digging... Meh, not too many positives on the runs tonight, but long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It doesn't cut, but it isn't cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I mentioned the back side of the trough was digging, and now @ 192 hours we have a decent shortwave in the SE. New low forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 18Z para has a similar mess also just now running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 18Z para has a similar mess also just now running. Looks similar to the euro but further north. Norlun from hell on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 No high in place? Weak high to the north. Problem is the primary is in KY. Too far north with weak hp. Return flow from the low screws up the surface and midlevels are borderline splitting the area. A low tracking from MO is not a good starting point more often than not. I mentioned this earlier. The stronger the low the more it will try to gain latitude. A bit of a dammed if you do and dammed if you don't setup. I guess we root for a weaker wave or more dig/confluence/hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 993 low about 125 miles east of Hatteras. at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Euro has system 3 do what it had system 2 doing last night exploding as it rides NE off the cost of the MidAtlantic, but misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 993 low about 125 miles east of Hatteras. at 192 850 temps look decent. Eh still too far out. Signal is there on the guidance for something. Details. Bedtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 956 bomb but just east enough for nobody along the coast to enjoy a good raking. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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