Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The Arctic is missing? I'm scared now. Like I said earlier the Pacific is overwhelming the pattern doesnt matter if there is a -ao or -nao welcome to the winter of 2015-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For the first wave, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I stated this in a post earlier today. The initial cold shot this week is in and out, we moderate towards the end of the week/next weekend, as the next cold trough builds into the central US. So depending on timing of the wave(s), it is certainly possible we could get a more inland track or a re-developer next weekend/early the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For the first wave, yes. First wave is OTS on every model and every ensemble member even though there's a favorable pattern. Thats how several KU storms showed up 6 days out, including December 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Like I said earlier the Pacific is overwhelming the pattern doesnt matter if there is a -ao or -nao welcome to the winter of 2015-16 It's getting easier to see the possible end game with never getting the right ingredients for winter weather. And winter just does a death spiral until spring. None of the guidance is getting better...it's getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's getting easier to see the possible end game with never getting the right ingredients for winter weather. And winter just does a death spiral until spring. None of the guidance is getting better...it's getting worse. Just a hunch but remember we are not just dealing with El Nino but the entire Pacific is warm and above normal its my number 1 fear against snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 First wave is OTS on every model and every ensemble member even though there's a favorable pattern. Thats how several KU storms showed up 6 days out, including December 2009. ecmwf para model has a lakes cutter now. This is far from being over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just a hunch but remember we are not just dealing with El Nino but the entire Pacific is warm and above normal its my number 1 fear against snow. Of course there is still a long way to go until next weekend...and there is model conflict...some cutters, some beaut's, some OTS...so everything and nothing in play. Clear as mud for another couple days I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 2009 we had cold air in place and a possibility of a suppressed storm. Not the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If the euro para model gets higher verification scores while the consensus of the rest of the model suites are ots, we're in a good position when you average it all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 2009 we had cold air in place and a possibility of a suppressed storm. Not the case this time. 1 week before 2/5/2010 was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just a hunch but remember we are not just dealing with El Nino but the entire Pacific is warm and above normal its my number 1 fear against snow.But now the question to ask: How did it happen in the other strong el ninos in which we got big snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those that that use WxBell...I am a bit confused with the diff between the snow MeteoGrams and the ind members. Example, for HGR, MeteoGram ens mean indicates roughly 1" of snow as the mean. I count 5 members with 6"+. Looking at the ind members....Ens mean is 2.5-3". Inspecting the members themselves I count 8-9 members with 6"+. I have noticed this discrepancy for a while now. Am I missing something or not understanding something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 But now the question to ask: How did it happen in the other strong el ninos in which we got big snows? I posted a map in the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agreed and I took a jab at the inconsistent models from run to run about an hour ago. But as PSU has been telling us, we need patience. The advertised pattern change has not really occurred yet. Once it does, hopefully some of the chaos will abate and the models will react accordingly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agreed and I took a jab at the inconsistent models from run to run about an hour ago. But as PSU has been telling us, we need patience. The advertised pattern change has not really occurred yet. Once it does, hopefully some of the chaos will abate and the models will react accordingly.. we really can't get any better than this all things considered ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 we really can't get any better than this all things considered ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png The AO appears to start trending positively right around the weekend storm. I think history would make that a positive sign figuratively and literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lala ensemble land... but 18z hr 300 and on looks very nice IMO on some members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lala ensemble land... but 18z hr 300 and on looks very nice IMO on some members Yoda! All is well, we were worried about you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Anybody know what's up with the PSU site? The pressure/precip members aren't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 18z GEFS also looks to have some fun solutions from hrs 192 to 288 (Day 9 to 12 accumulated snow)... couple of the members must be monsters in the sense ofc that the places just N and W get raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 18z GEFS also looks to have some fun solutions from hrs 192 to 288... couple of the members must be monsters in sense as ofc the places just N and W get raked Got any maps? I'm having a hard time finding the member maps the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Got any maps? I'm having a hard time finding the member maps the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 heavysnow1.gif heavysnow2.gif lol. Lake cutter or ots...or split the diff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Hey Ian. Notice anything on this 10 EPS map? I do. There's that odd trough at the North Pole that I pointed out to you strangely present on the 5H composite maps you posted the other day for our biggest snowfalls. Just sayin'. Lol. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0 Yeah saw that. Starting to get thru my list of top events individually. You don't see it too often but there are a few. Think we mostly need to get past the first wave... perhaps that one could still be a big event but it seems more like a stage setter at this point. As the block pulses down it drops into a very nice position historically. From about there thru the end it's pretty quality overall though the suppression concern probably grows with time if it's right. Sometimes we'll get these blocks to set up and roll around for a week or three before the main action as well, which is certainly possible here. I'm more and more on the train that it'll keep going for a while in the means tho perhaps it'll wane/grow at times. I'd be more confident if it didn't just come out of nowhere. I did pull up some months last night with nice overall blocking sigs that weren't too notable though. I think we have short memories with that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yeah saw that. Starting to get thru my list of top events individually. You don't see it too often but there are a few. Think we mostly need to get past the first wave... perhaps that one could still be a big event but it seems more like a stage setter at this point. As the block pulses down it drops into a very nice position historically. From about there thru the end it's pretty quality overall though the suppression concern probably grows with time if it's right. Sometimes we'll get these blocks to set up and roll around for a week or three before the main action as well, which is certainly possible here. I'm more and more on the train that it'll keep going for a while in the means tho perhaps it'll wane/grow at times. I'd be more confident if it didn't just come out of nowhere. I did pull up some months last night with nice overall blocking sigs that weren't too notable though. I think we have short memories with that stuff. I'm leaning more towards the weekend system after seeing where the NAO and AO are being modeled to trend following any solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Did the GFS rid the blocking? Speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Did the GFS rid the blocking? Speechless. It's splits the PV over Hudson Bay at day 4-5 and sends piece to south central Canada that blocks all the cold and we are left with that mess. If it just pushes it all east it could have had a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The good news? The GFS has a strong shortwave down south. Bad news? There is a pesky ULL over the Lakes from a lobe that breaks off, makes it so HP can't build in that area, The ironic news? That lobe could form another 50/50 @ 192 hours and there is energy coming in from the West. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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