nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Decent consensus between Euro, GFS, and GEFS mean for that period. One day at a time. I'm hoping for a Feb 14, 2015, redux for Tuesday first You forgot the JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Bob, check out the vort track on the Euro for the 17/18th storm. Looks really healthy and an ideal placement (VA/NC border) for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Bob, check out the vort track on the Euro for the 17/18th storm. Looks really healthy and an ideal placement (VA/NC border) for us, right? It's leaves too much room in advance for the slp to end up in the TN valley for it to be really good. As is we can work with it. A low tracking across MO into TN isn't ideal. We like them to come up from MS or AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It really doesn't matter weather models agree or not 216 hrs out, they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's leaves too much room in advance for the slp to end up in the TN valley for it to be really good. As is we can work with it. A low tracking across MO into TN isn't ideal. We like them to come up from MS or AL. Yes, the secondary low as depicted isn't ideal. When you say it leaves too much room in advance, what's something to look out for with the vort that could help the secondary either transfer sooner or not make it as far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The SE crew said congrats DC to NYC with a 984 bomb...they smoking something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like .60 qpf for western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The SE crew said congrats DC to NYC with a 984 bomb...they smoking something? Seems like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let's get this under 120 hours. Cant believe we're still at day 10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let's get this under 120 hours. Cant believe we're still at day 10 lol Get what? A fizzle storm or a bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let's get this under 120 hours. Cant believe we're still at day 10 lolThere's a 994 low due east of you at 216, so while it's futile to even discuss timing details this far out it's simply oscillating the time frames based on what vort if focuses on, and not necessarily getting pushed back constantly past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lol. That was a top 5 weather event in my life. I'll just take .1 on Tuesday and then start caring about whavever all y'all are ooing and ahhing over That squall was legendary. Best one I've seen in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z gefs, as far as the overall pattern goes, looks great right through the end of the run imo. Heights in w Canada up thru AK are increasing toward the end of week 2. -AO and -NAO continue. I can't imagine we don't hit a nice stride sometime in the next few weeks. This pattern will either be a tough lesson for this weenie or will produce nicely....like an h5 pattern like that should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like .60 qpf for western burbsPay maps I have say 3-4" for you and me, with DCA almost at 3" line. These, at least in prior years, are conservative imho. Looking at the surface/qpf maps, I thought there might be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those of you with access, go to the 500mb means for hr 216 eps. Lowest pressures centralized between Richmond and central NC. That would be a nice spot to have it. eta: Here is the tropicaltidbits image of it! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010912&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those of you with access, go to the 500mb means for hr 216 eps. Lowest pressures centralized between Richmond and central NC. That would be a nice spot to have it. eta: Here is the tropicaltidbits image of it! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010912&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0 Day 10 suggesrs, however, that it's exits due east and does not come north very far up the coast. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010912&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hey Ian. Notice anything on this 10 EPS map? I do. There's that odd trough at the North Pole that I pointed out to you strangely present on the 5H composite maps you posted the other day for our biggest snowfalls. Just sayin'. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Day 10 suggesrs, however, that it's exits due east and does not come north very far up the coast. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010912&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0 From what I can see on TT, EPS looks cold and suppressed with the low(s) during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hey Ian. Notice anything on this 10 EPS map? I do. There's that odd trough at the North Pole that I pointed out to you strangely present on the 5H composite maps you posted the other day for our biggest snowfalls. Just sayin'. Lol. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0 It could be a signal for the 1/21 event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HM fired up about some stuff in the stratosphere on Twitter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HM fired up about some stuff in the stratosphere on Twitter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I did notice GFS Fantasy range is definitely showing the start of a warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z Parallel Euro takes the 17th threat and turns it into a GL cutter which then spawns a secondary off the NJ coast. For comparison purposes, the Euro-P 0z had a similar solution of today's 12z Operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z Parallel Euro takes the 17th threat and turns it into a GL cutter which then spawns a secondary off the NJ coast. For comparison purposes, the Euro-P 0z had a similar solution of today's 12z Operational. but completely opposite of its own op, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Does this para have a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This may be rain, but I think most of you know what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Parallel Euro has a cutter and to think we had the audacity to talk about suppression. The good old cutter back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 but completely opposite of its own op, correct? Well the parallel is the new OP beginning in March so I wouldn't say it's opposite its own OP. Rather it's an upgraded OP with apparently higher verification scores thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I still haven't given up on the first storm. 1010mb low over the Florida coast 6 days out? Sounds like a typical precursor to an east coast blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Where is the arctic at hr 135?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The Arctic is missing? I'm scared now. Stupid GGEM may have been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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