BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro para is probably a good one to keep an eye on. Verification scores are up across the board at all levels for North America except at the top heights (100mb where it is not doing well at all). Edited to add: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/IFS+cycle+41r2+scorecard+-+extended+version+part+2 Awesome to hear!...if you're not an ncep developer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 surprised nobody is talking the GEFS for the 17-18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 surprised nobody is talking the GEFS for the 17-18th the mean slp and qpf looks amazing, but if you look at the snowfall maps and again the mean snow is only around 3" it indicates that mean must include a lot of warm inland tracks and some OTS ones to give a mean that looks great. I am not saying its a bad run, the mean stayed decent but given it shows us with close to an inch QPF with below 0 850s and a perfect low track you would expect a much higher mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 surprised nobody is talking the GEFS for the 17-18th We can get 2 snowstorms in this pattern, just take it one storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Very similar to 0Z @hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 the mean slp and qpf looks amazing, but if you look at the snowfall maps and again the mean snow is only around 3" it indicates that mean must include a lot of warm inland tracks and some OTS ones to give a mean that looks great. I am not saying its a bad run, the mean stayed decent but given it shows us with close to an inch QPF with below 0 850s and a perfect low track you would expect a much higher mean snowfall. Great mean track but what may be messing up the mean snowfall is the fact that the mean 2m temps are a bit warmer than average. Looking at the individual placement of the Lows, there's a few that take an inland coastal plain track, which is probably skewing the mean temps and thus the mean snowfall. Potential remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I AM 3 distinct s/w = 3 chances JAN 15-16 JAN 18-19 jan 22-23 surprised nobody is talking the GEFS for the 17-18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Very similar to 0Z @hr 96 120 hrs northern stream is not as amped. Edit: Or maybe the southern stream is lagging, either way, positive tilt on this run, no bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 the mean slp and qpf looks amazing, but if you look at the snowfall maps and again the mean snow is only around 3" it indicates that mean must include a lot of warm inland tracks and some OTS ones to give a mean that looks great. I am not saying its a bad run, the mean stayed decent but given it shows us with close to an inch QPF with below 0 850s and a perfect low track you would expect a much higher mean snowfall. You could pretty much say the same thing about the eps. It's been 3 days with no increase in clarity. Good indication as to how complicated it is to figure out multiple tightly spaced waves at range. Good advice for everyone is just focus on the first wave after the clipper next week and nothing beyond it. Once that is locked in one way or the other we can look down the line to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro seems to have squashed the first storm. I'm talking about the early one it had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 What other examples of super Nino suppression exist besides Feb 1973? 97/98 I believe. We had some storms that year but they were rainy. The south did score snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 the mean slp and qpf looks amazing, but if you look at the snowfall maps and again the mean snow is only around 3" it indicates that mean must include a lot of warm inland tracks and some OTS ones to give a mean that looks great. I am not saying its a bad run, the mean stayed decent but given it shows us with close to an inch QPF with below 0 850s and a perfect low track you would expect a much higher mean snowfall. We get clobbered with closed H5 lows on several members so 3" average is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro seems to have squashed the first storm. I'm talking about the early one it had last night. We probably should have know that was a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 We probably should have know that was a fluke I think we all did behind the rose glasses. I had zero confidence in last night's run. When an op goes against all other ops, ens, and even it's own ens it's kinda easy to not invest much thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think we all did behind the rose glasses. I had zero confidence in last night's run. When an op goes against all other ops, ens, and even it's own ens it's kinda easy to not invest much thought. I had no confidence in it not because of all of those very good reasons you listed.....but because it was a positive run. I've been jaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I had no confidence in it not because of all of those very good reasons you listed.....but because it was a positive run. I've been jaded That's actually a high percentage strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Having a storm being modeled where it is at that range to me is as good as it can get in this day and age. I'll hammer that in as much as I can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro looks like the gfs d8-9. Might not be pretty but it snows on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro looks like the gfs d8-9. Might not be pretty but it snows on us. Looked very close to the 0z Euro Parallel at first glance. Secondary dies near KY as the coastal primary takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro looks like the gfs d8-9. Might not be pretty but it snows on us.Ne boys seem happy. How much we talking about for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Ne boys seem happy. How much we talking about for us? Max snowfall stripe from coastal CNJ through LI and SNE. 2" DC; max of 5" for northern MD. Get the secondary to die quicker or a better H location and it'd result in a better scenario for us. Obviously parsing temp details this far out is futile but just commenting on what we'd need (to my weenie eye). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Ne boys seem happy. How much we talking about for us? 1-4 mostly. Highest nw. SNE gets smoked. Quicker transfer and we would too. Could be a better front end before the primary dies than depicted with that kind of setup. Not to mention it's way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Ne boys seem happy. How much we talking about for us? it's a redeveloper looks like...primary goes up to WV (too close for comfort) and redevlops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 1-4 mostly. Highest nw. SNE gets smoked. Quicker transfer and we would too. Could be a better front end before the primary dies than depicted with that kind of setup. Not to mention it's way out there. Remember when we were worried about suppression? 12 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Max snowfall stripe from coastal CNJ through LI and SNE. 2" DC; max of 5" for northern MD.I'll take it for a round 1. Next system should be further south ala 1/87. Just seems to happen that way as the boundary gets pushed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 1-4 mostly. Highest nw. SNE gets smoked. Quicker transfer and we would too. Could be a better front end before the primary dies than depicted with that kind of setup. Not to mention it's way out there. Wouldnt be the first time we did OK with a front end thump to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'll take it for a round 1. Next system should be further south ala 1/87. Just seems to happen that way as the boundary gets pushed south. Yeah, looks like a 3rd wave rolling through the desert southwest at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Decent consensus between Euro, GFS, and GEFS mean for that period. One day at a time. I'm hoping for a Feb 14, 2015, redux for Tuesday first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Decent consensus between Euro, GFS, and GEFS mean for that period. One day at a time. I'm hoping for a Feb 14, 2015, redux for Tuesday first Was that the crazy squall that wrecked us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wouldnt be the first time we did OK with a front end thump to dry slot. It's the kind of setup that could do it. I'm not picky and I really don't care who jacks as long as we get something. 2-4 would be just fine. Sure doesn't look like it's our only shot either. Looking forward to breaking the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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