WeatherQ Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I might sound like a weenie with this one, but ... Tracking models for the last decade I've noticed that a lot of the big ones come out of no where in the medium range. I've seen it countless times. Last year's January's SNE Blizzard is a perfect example. I remember during my lunch break @ work last year it was a 12z EURO run like 120 hours out I believe that all of a sudden showed a blizzard. Very rarely will we get a storm show up 200+ hrs out and hold. PDII is one of the few that I can think of that was on the mods that far out. That being said it is likely a blip, but we'll see. Doesn't mean one of the waves won't produce though. Superstorm Sandy. Euro had it dead on 9 days out. I remember cause I was in the Bahamas, looked at Euro and thought we were screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z parallel gfs was crushing Beautiful - on a side note, anyone know when the parallel is supposed to implemented for the GFS? WxBell doesn't run it but the AmericanWx model page has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 168 hrs looks beautiful. Good jet structure right over the Gulf. A low should start to blow up once that shortwave gets near the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Superstorm Sandy. Euro had it dead on 9 days out. I remember cause I was in the Bahamas, looked at Euro and thought we were screwed I recall that also. In fact I think I started that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z parallel gfs was crushing Typically, those are the runs that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Incredible run to run changes at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 168 hrs looks beautiful. Good jet structure right over the Gulf. A low should start to blow up once that shortwave gets near the Gulf Are we running the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Beautiful - on a side note, anyone know when the parallel is supposed to implemented for the GFS? WxBell doesn't run it but the AmericanWx model page has it. I think someone said end of march or april, I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I thought the trend with the gfs last 3 runs has not been encouraging at all for wave 2. I don't really care about wave 3. Wave 2 looked good at the same range and it has been looking weaker and more sheared as we go forward in time. Still too far out in time to care much either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The storm east of FL is the euro storm i believe . The GFS DID move energy back several hundred miles this run so maybe that storm can move back a hundred more and turn up like the euro did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The storm east of FL is the euro storm i believe . The GFS DID move energy back several hundred miles this run so maybe that storm can move back a hundred more and turn up like the euro did Again the Euro and GFS really are awful when it comes to spitting energy out of the United States Southwest.... almost to a point at times all or nothing.. always comes down to timing and when you enter into a blocking pattern it becomes even more muffled as the flow traffic cop says no start no wait here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 168 hrs looks beautiful. Good jet structure right over the Gulf. A low should start to blow up once that shortwave gets near the Gulf I really love your enthusiasm however I thought pbp was intended to be an objective view of the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Despite blocking so many waves makes things tricky. Hard to focus too much on any one sys for now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Welp I was wrong the GFS ended up shearing the 3rd wave too...seems like it doesn't know which one to focus on, but it is all good, threats are alive and well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 April is probably the best case scenario. Code still has to be turned over to NCEP Central Operations, and then a TON of testing needs to be done, as many NCEP systems use the GFS either for initial conditions, boundary conditions, or forcing. You can also get graphics at mageval.ncep.noaa.gov I think someone said end of march or april, I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It will be a short lead when it finally gets the right wave and amplifies. These long-term unicorns are a nuisance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'd say > 50% of the big snowstorms we get the GFS has had suppressed at some point for multiple runs...it is nothing to worry about imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 CMC has the storm around 200 and gives us some nice backend after its rains for a while, it has a huge surface reflection that goes pretty much over MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'd say > 50% of the big snowstorms we get the GFS has had suppressed at some point for multiple runs...it is nothing to worry about imo Of course not. We don't worry about things like that here even though it's a supernino trait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm guessing the parallel's scheduled run times are highlighted in green?http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I worry until I actually have to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If by 6pm Tuesday thete is a 1040 high over eastern lakes then suppression is for real. Weaker and further west very little concern for suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I don't think the gfs is that bad at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 no. The parallel GFS is not yet being run by NCEP Central Operations, so it won't show up on that page. It's still being run by EMC, as code handoff to NCO is not for several more weeks, but files are being distributed so that various sites can make graphics. It's part of the NCEP effort to lengthen the evaluation period for major upgrades. I'm guessing the parallel's scheduled run times are highlighted in green?http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Or maybe all three waves will be sheared or suppressed and we get nothing. I think the GFS is going in wrong direction. Will give it until next Saturday to resolve. Euro will be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Of course not. We don't worry about things like that here even though it's a supernino trait.Good point Ian, if there wasn't a very strong Nino, you'd say yea, it's the GFS being the GFS again and suppressing everything but this winter, there is actually climo support for suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Of course not. We don't worry about things like that here even though it's a supernino trait. What other examples of super Nino suppression exist besides Feb 1973? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Too many models Euro para is probably a good one to keep an eye on. Verification scores are up across the board at all levels for North America except at the top heights (100mb where it is not doing well at all). Edited to add: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/IFS+cycle+41r2+scorecard+-+extended+version+part+2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 first image is the 0z OP EURO jan 15-16 second image is the 0z PARALLEL EURO RUN very close but there is a timing issue thirds image in 0z euro para run EPS big hit for everyone DC to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 no. The parallel GFS is not yet being run by NCEP Central Operations, so it won't show up on that page. It's still being run by EMC, as code handoff to NCO is not for several more weeks, but files are being distributed so that various sites can make graphics. It's part of the NCEP effort to lengthen the evaluation period for major upgrades. Thank you. Does that mean there's not a current set time of day for it to be run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.