Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That last gfs run was a big jump off the suppression train. Well depends how you look at it. There is 3 waves entering the CONUS from the West. The 6z GFS squashed the first 2. (The 00z EURO is bombing out #1).......GFS then blew up #3. The models are having an incredibly hard time deciding which shortwave is going to be the main player. The 00z EURO bombed out #1, squashed #2, and then showed a SE HECS with #3.... My only worry is that the flow is so fast that none of the waves has time to dig and become strong enough.....However on the other hand it gives us 3 chances at a storm to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Well depends how you look at it. There is 3 waves entering the CONUS from the West. The 6z GFS squashed the first 2. (The 00z EURO is bombing out #1).......GFS then blew up #3. The models are having an incredibly hard time deciding which shortwave is going to be the main player. The 00z EURO bombed out #1, squashed #2, and then showed a SE HECS with #3.... My only worry is that the flow is so fast that none of the waves has time to dig and become strong enough.....However on the other hand it gives us 3 chances at a storm to form. Shouldn't a strong block slow down the flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 .....However on the other hand it gives us 3 chances at a storm to form. Its gonna snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 So if you take all the data from last night the storm with the most support is the only showing up in the 200-240 hr range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Shouldn't a strong block slow down the flow? Yes....I guess I should say my worry is that we don't get one key shortwave, but multiple weaker ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 We need that storm to slide a little bit more to the south of us for us to get the full impact. It looks as if as depicted its going to be a rain snow line near Washington type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lot of action. I would have thought the strong block prevented a solution like the 6z making that first wave go westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 We need that storm to slide a little bit more to the south of us for us to get the full impact. It looks as if as depicted its going to be a rain snow line near Washington type of deal. No... It would be a snowstorm. With blocking... Climo... Cold air around... Anything that doesn't cut should produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Total chaos times 3 or 4. I just wish we get hit by the first one because they like to follow each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 No... It would be a snowstorm. With blocking... Climo... Cold air around... Anything that doesn't cut should produce snow. Well if you want to be a weenine like me and check buffkit. It actually starts as sleet at MRB. So a mixed bag event in DC would be likely. Obviously it is a long ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Eps members most bullish all winter for snow chances the next 15 days. Not surprising. DC mean is 3" and a dozen show 6" or more. Hopefully every run ups the ante thorough the end of the month and we walk into Feb with 10"+ at the airports. It looks like wxbell fixed the snow algo across the board. Comparing the eirp members to the snow plots looks pretty realistic. Op is definitely more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Eps members most bullish all winter for snow chances the next 15 days. Not surprising. DC mean is 3" and a dozen show 6" or more. Hopefully every run ups the ante thorough the end of the month and we walk into Feb with 10"+ at the airports. Yeah. My low guess in the snow totals thread is in serious jeopardy over the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The parallel 0z Euro doesn't support the OP Wave 1 idea but instead is keying in on the 17th/18th (Wave 2). Primary low tracks from Mobile/FL panhandle to coastal SC to a 992 off OBX. It does though track a weaker secondary low inland at the same time. I would think the stronger primary low would take over and the secondary would disappear sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That would be great. 10 at DCA would mean DC and surrounding areas actually got much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That inland low on the parallel euro run scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Eps members most bullish all winter for snow chances the next 15 days. Not surprising. DC mean is 3" and a dozen show 6" or more. Hopefully every run ups the ante thorough the end of the month and we walk into Feb with 10"+ at the airports. It looks like wxbell fixed the snow algo across the board. Comparing the eirp members to the snow plots looks pretty realistic. Op is definitely more realistic. agree on weather bell snow maps Just looking at modeled snow I was not impressed with anything I saw last night and this mornings. For dc and east However I know it will change every 6 hours. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 No... It would be a snowstorm. With blocking... Climo... Cold air around... Anything that doesn't cut should produce snow. Verbatim its not a great track for the cities and coastal plain. CMC had a similar idea iirc. A more rainy look for our area. Its on the table, as is something more suppressed. The early week cold shot and trough will rotate out, and looks like we get some relaxation/moderation towards next weekend. Looks like a new trough then builds into the central US, so not inconceivable we could end up seeing a less than ideal track with a messy/mixy storm, if in fact a wave develops late next weekend. Lots to be resolved, as always looking 7 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Can you imagone the you know it's a bad winter thread if the 00z euro actually verifiedWell the snow maps have a hole over us so it would be good probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Total chaos times 3 or 4. I just wish we get hit by the first one because they like to follow each other. You're right Mitch. The atmosphere needs to develop its' muscle memory. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Well the snow maps have a hole over us so it would be good probably. I was going to post a snip of that but have been too lazy. It looks like a ghost cartoon character on wxbell. Boooo...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS is definitely strengthening the vort in the sw finally again. interaction this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Thru 90 HRs you can tell the 12z GFS wants nothing to do with the EURO's idea of blowing up the 1st wave. I think that was most likely a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS is definitely strengthening the vort in the sw finally again. interaction this time Are you noting that because of the clipper next week? Because that isn't the shortwave that the EURO blows up. Just making sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Are you noting that because of the clipper next week? Because that isn't the shortwave that the EURO blows up. Just making sure Yeah talking about the clipper and the energy in the SW that was destroyed 5 runs ago and is now coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wave #2 looks pretty decent around the 4 corners @ 126 hours. I honestly am hoping that the models start putting all the energy into one wave that way we can get a larger storm instead of 3 weaker impulses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z parallel gfs was crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wave #2 looks pretty decent around the 4 corners @ 126 hours. I honestly am hoping that the models start putting all the energy into one wave that way we can get a larger storm instead of 3 weaker impulsesIt definitely looks more amplified than 06z. However, because there are so many pieces of energy, the evolution of these pieces will be very difficult for the models to determine at this lead time. Things should be much clearer once the midweek storm is within 48h. The pattern still looks full of potential and that really all that you can ask for. I would be surprised if the models locked onto a wave this early, and then even figured out that wave's evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Ok @ 156 Hrs wave #2 looks sheared out, but Wave #3 looks like it is going to be the focus again, similar to 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There is so many pieces of energy involved here. GFS is very disorganized with everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just a model run guess, but the GFS is going to be a MECS around 186-204 hours with that energy in the Southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.