Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm not sure a pbp is necessary. Jmho. It's another run that's cold enough with some pieces of pac energy and no great Lakes low. That's really all you can take away from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So close to being something more. Tons of time for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Honestly this evolution is totally fine for me. All I want is flakes, and this would seem to get us some for 12+ hours. I'm only out to 192 on TT but its still snowing and has been from a little before 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Like Bob says, it is cold! Snow does show up. Let's stay positive as models try and make sense of it all (I say as I was trying to predict the GFS outcome as it came out! LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm just glad it doesn't have the Greenland block in Northwest Territories by 168hrs like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is so far in the future that the discussion would basically be the same without a model to discuss. It's pretty much fantasy speculation. If this pattern ends up what our guys think it will, we will have chances. There's no need to fret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is so far in the future that the discussion would basically be the same without a model to discuss. It's pretty much fantasy speculation. If this pattern ends up what our guys think it will, we will have chances. There's no need to fret. I'm just encouraged it still has some semblance of a storm. All I need at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is so far in the future that the discussion would basically be the same without a model to discuss. It's pretty much fantasy speculation. If this pattern ends up what our guys think it will, we will have chances. There's no need to fret. Sums up my thoughts exactly. I'd take the over on our chances of snow over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 72-73 and 97-98 come to mind. Cpc has been showing plenty of 98 analogs lately. Also late Jan 83 which didn't do anything. Don't over think right now. Just let it ride until Monday and see where we stand. Snow rarely has clarity or consensus until inside of 6 days or so. I should have posted this in the other thread, but thank you for those dates. The more data the better in my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 189, light snow exiting, 1040 high in the Dakotas will supress the second event for sure. I disagree. It will shunt it eastward but to suppress s/se it would need to be over northern ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I disagree. It will shunt it eastward but to suppress s/se it would need to be over northern ny state Like the PDII or the PDI. I agree though that a high doesn't necessarily shove the baroclinic zone too far southeast. A high in the Dakotas would be fine if it didn't extend as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Well since I hate the model lulls in between each run, I pulled up the 12z JMA for S&G. Can't complain with this look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Well since I hate the model lulls in between each run, I pulled up the 12z JMA for S&G. Can't complain with this look: Too much would be my guess. At the very least I'd say that would send a low into the Tennessee valley. Didn't the GGEM show something similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Too much would be my guess. At the very least I'd say that would send a low into the Tennessee valley. Didn't the GGEM show something similar? Since the surface low was down in Brownsville I thought it'd head towards TNish and redevelop off the NC coast (hopefully). Obviously just filling time until 0z shows another solution. GGEM had a wonky idea of dual sub 990 lows heading N in tandem (one a cutter, it's twin a coastal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 We know now we will have some type of low pressure of undetermined strength and location with some type of decent high somewhere The models cannot tell us more than that but it does beat the 60's with a roaring jet in the middle of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just did my first weenie NAM extrapolation of the winter for the clipper. I dont think the weenie NAM extrap looks great for our area. Might be decent for my trip to Rochester though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That JMA run is a dream look.... As for the 00z GFS def a step in right direction the shortwave down south is def. stronger. idk if it make the cut, but def still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This run is messy but it's gonna give us something. 1st shortwave dies off the florida coast awaiting the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Last night I was worried about the 50/50 hanging on and the HP building in on time to lock cold air in....I'm more concerned about the shortwave down south being strong enough which is something I'd rather worry about...the setup is there, just need the chips to fall in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This run is messy but it's gonna give us something. 1st shortwave dies off the florida coast awaiting the second one. That shortwave in FL was never a key player, thats just a minor disturbance scooting east ahead of the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That shortwave in FL was never a key player, thats just a minor disturbance scooting east ahead of the main show. Shortwave coming through the Dakotas will save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not bad overall, shortwave just flattens out. Need a much stronger wave and its game on, we can work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Solid little 2-5" storm for parts of the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Gfs is completely acceptable. Even a stronger wave into the TN valley that front ends us and dry slots is totally acceptable. Mixed event is fine. Anything but all rain. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Solid little 2-5" storm for parts of the Mid Atlantic I'd happily take this run if this actually verified. 6" lollis down near Charlottesville. Different evolution than prior runs so obviously lots of solutions are on the table. I love the tracking aspect of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 A few inches with a crusty new base. Why not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Solid little 2-5" storm for parts of the Mid Atlantic I'm not worried too much about the strength of the southern stream short wave. But perhaps I should worry about it, as some of the experts have been expressing some serious concern about supression scenario. I believe these waves tend to trend stronger for the most part on the models as we get closer to an event. The models will have a much better handle on that shortwave strength, placement, and interaction with other imbedded shortwaves by Sunday evening after the Redskins game. Wish I could just walk away from the models until then, but I have the sickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Solid little 2-5" storm for parts of the Mid Atlantic Gfs is completely acceptable. Even a stronger wave into the TN valley that front ends us and dry slots is totally acceptable. Mixed event is fine. Anything but all rain. Thank you. Yup, I'd take the event to take the lid off the jar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS brewing something else in the gulf maybe at 240? CMC is hot mess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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