Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro ens not gung ho at all about the d9-10 storm. Just a couple hits in the mix. A little surprised. I figured there would be more support than what is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 We're watching you. Lol. Plenty of model runs to get this straightened out. Please get the magic New England north trend machine up and running...we are losing her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 its amazing how we cant break the 10 day wall. I cant imagine the next big storm threat being all the way to January 23rd but it makes sense climatology wise i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I guess it doesn't have to snow at all. We could see this epic block break down, reform, and break down again over the next six weeks and get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I guess it doesn't have to snow at all. We could see this epic block break down, reform, and break down again over the next six weeks and get nothing.Even tho the ops show us 'every solution possible' they do offer some outs without much snow. So it's definitely on the table. I'd still probably lean against a shutout or near shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 A shut out would change everything we have come to think about a good pattern. Up until now if we say -AO, -NAO, +PNA no one thinks shut out or near shut out is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Even tho the ops show us 'every solution possible' they do offer some outs without much snow. So it's definitely on the table. I'd still probably lean against a shutout or near shutout. Has there been any near miss events with such strong blocking during moderate+ nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Has there been any near miss events with such strong blocking during moderate+ nino? Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens. A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 its amazing how we cant break the 10 day wall. I cant imagine the next big storm threat being all the way to January 23rd but it makes sense climatology wise i guess There's some decent storms mixed in by d8-10 but there are far more nothings. Pretty noisy and I'm probably expecting too much. I would like to see at least half the members show something by 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens. A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least. Well that's all we can hope for. If it doesn't happen then we have another set of data to draw from when analyzing the weather patterns and know that a great pattern doesn't always require a snow shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens. A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least. I should have asked if there has been any seasons like that where we came up empty in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I should have asked if there has been any seasons like that where we came up empty in the end? 72-73 and 97-98 come to mind. Cpc has been showing plenty of 98 analogs lately. Also late Jan 83 which didn't do anything. Don't over think right now. Just let it ride until Monday and see where we stand. Snow rarely has clarity or consensus until inside of 6 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens. A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least. Just looking at the H5 on the EPS there are 3 clear windows for a big storm, d8-10, 12-13, and its reloading another one at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 New Euro monthlies have a giant +PNA for Feb and Mar. Mar actually looks better in theory. Feb has +NAO, but more neutral or - for Mar. Both months look about normal tempwise. Precip axis offshore in Feb.. wet Mar/Apr. Actually pretty dry on the West Coast in Feb but Mar is wet out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just looking at the H5 on the EPS there are 3 clear windows for a big storm, d8-10, 12-13, and its reloading another one at 15 We'll hit the grocery stores on the 11th and 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just looking at the H5 on the EPS there are 3 clear windows for a big storm, d8-10, 12-13, and its reloading another one at 15 Gefs showed 3 distinct pac waves during that period as well. And it looks like it would continue after on both the gefs/eps. I've been pretty easy going this winter. I want a big storm this year and I'm really patient. We have some good pieces coming together. Maybe with some staying power too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 A shut out would change everything we have come to think about a good pattern. Up until now if we say -AO, -NAO, +PNA no one thinks shut out or near shut out is even possible. Not trying to be harsh, but by "we" you mean "you" right? Of course it's possible. It's happened multiple times before. A good example is the first part of March 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Clipper is really digging this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not trying to be harsh, but by "we" you mean "you" right? Of course it's possible. It's happened multiple times before. A good example is the first part of March 2005. Not harsh. Yes me I am probably the only one who doesn't think shut out or near shut out with those indices. I will add it to my list of things I now consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not harsh. Yes me I am probably the only one who doesn't think shut out or near shut out with those indices. I will add it to my list of things I now consider. Yes, just going by indices isn't a great idea. Bobchill already mentioned, but those three indices were good towards the end of January in 1998 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 North eastern MD is the winner of the 18z gfs for the clipper still 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I admit that I did not think this winter would produce something spectacular but the next two weeks will feature either big cold or big snow. I dont think both but look at the analogs and throw out 97/98 not because I want to but by now in 97/98 we had some well poitioned lows to our se but no cold air. So far this season the lows have been in the great lakes so I discount 97/98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking like the GFS is going to throw out yet another scenario here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS has a really nice vort this time. should be closer for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking like the GFS is going to throw out yet another scenario here Still Looks pretty suppressed. Edit: Some snow from lead shortwave but it ruins the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still Looks pretty suppressed. That and the 2nd shortwave seems to be getting closer and closer to the leading shortwave each run... No clue what that'd do for the storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Nothing to stop this thing from coming north this run. gonna be different then 12z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 177 Light snow into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Light snow for about 18 hours it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 177 Light snow into MD 189, light snow exiting, 1040 high in the Dakotas will supress the second event for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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