wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 As of late Monday afternoon the disturbance over Aftrica has finally moved off shore. Looks very good on the last vis satellite of the day. Coming off at a fairly high latitude of about 18 or 19 north. It would have better chances of crossing the Atlantic if it had come off further south. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 For the last week the GFS and Euro have shown this system quickly developing and moving west across the Atlantic. However, they've gradually been backing off the intensity, and now the latest Euro no longer even develops it. Let's face it, the Atlantic basin sucks. When waves emerge from Africa they're shredded by overwhelming SAL. If they can manage to hold together and reach the western Atlantic they're shredded by upper lows. Remember back in the day when tracking hurricanes used to be fun? These days it's a never-ending grind. Given the upward trend in global water temps, Atlantic included, if the atmosphere lines up just right like 2005 we'll see another explosive season. It's bound to happen at some point. The general trend, though, can easily make a hurricane geek a bit testy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The low just offshore Corpus Christi looks better organized than TD 9. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=crp&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: For the last week the GFS and Euro have shown this system quickly developing and moving west across the Atlantic. However, they've gradually been backing off the intensity, and now the latest Euro no longer even develops it. Let's face it, the Atlantic basin sucks. When waves emerge from Africa they're shredded by overwhelming SAL. If they can manage to hold together and reach the western Atlantic they're shredded by upper lows. Remember back in the day when tracking hurricanes used to be fun? These days it's a never-ending grind. Given the upward trend in global water temps, Atlantic included, if the atmosphere lines up just right like 2005 we'll see another explosive season. It's bound to happen at some point. The general trend, though, can easily make a hurricane geek a bit testy. This is how its always been. Years like the early 2000s are the exception, not the rule. You can go a really long time between a long-track CV landfall in the US. The major hurricane drought is a bit fluky, but that's more as a result of really few hurricanes in the Gulf compared to past CV dry spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: For the last week the GFS and Euro have shown this system quickly developing and moving west across the Atlantic. However, they've gradually been backing off the intensity, and now the latest Euro no longer even develops it. Let's face it, the Atlantic basin sucks. When waves emerge from Africa they're shredded by overwhelming SAL. If they can manage to hold together and reach the western Atlantic they're shredded by upper lows. Remember back in the day when tracking hurricanes used to be fun? These days it's a never-ending grind. Given the upward trend in global water temps, Atlantic included, if the atmosphere lines up just right like 2005 we'll see another explosive season. It's bound to happen at some point. The general trend, though, can easily make a hurricane geek a bit testy. This implies the models should be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, isohume said: This implies the models are correct. It does make sense that a wave moving quickly westward through a rather dry, stable tropical Atlantic would struggle to strengthen very quickly. Models have gradually been picking up on that after being pretty aggressive early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It does make sense that a wave moving quickly westward through a rather dry, stable tropical Atlantic would struggle to strengthen very quickly. Models have gradually been picking up on that after being pretty aggressive early on. It doesn't mean the Atlantic basin sucks tho. It's a complicated basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, isohume said: It doesn't mean the Atlantic basin sucks tho. It's a complicated basin. 12z runs of the GFS and Euro are showing the development of tropical low pressure over the Atlantic to the south and east of NYC that retrogrades back to the north and west towards SE New England and eastern LI. 12z Run of the Euro shows landfall over Cape Cod at 9/7 0z while GFS stays OTS. Both models were showing this development on the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 In the old days even in the dead times of 1970-1994 we had interesting storms to follow like david and frederick in 1979. now, nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 13 hours ago, ldub23 said: In the old days even in the dead times of 1970-1994 we had interesting storms to follow like david and frederick in 1979. now, nothing happens. Yup. It's either sand or shear that we worry about. This season has been all hype and bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The overall numbers for the Atlantic aren't that bad to this point, but I guess it's been disappointing if you're looking for legit hurricanes smashing into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 are we still expecting an active hurricane season ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 16 hours ago, geoffs said: are we still expecting an active hurricane season ? Im not. just slop so far and sept looks dead on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 On 8/29/2016 at 8:04 AM, bluewave said: It could be the early stages of the projected Hadley cell expansion and Caribbean drying that the long term models had been showing. But the researchers probably want to see if this dry pattern persists into future decades or reverses back to less dry to know for sure. So let me get this straight. For years scientists have been alarming about climate change and the increase in temperatures across the globe. Sea levels rising, disappearing glaciers, warmer sea temps, which would all mean stronger weather activity. All that said, why is the air drying? You'd assume the air would be more dense from evaporating water due to the warmer temps. Or is the Atlantic not affected by these rising temperatures as much as the Pacific or other bodies of water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 On 8/31/2016 at 10:25 AM, geoffs said: are we still expecting an active hurricane season ? Correct me if I'm wrong here but this year's hurricane season was never expected to be super active (near average) -- the prediction that this would be the most active since 2012 is not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The idea is that the warming of the higher latitudes faster than the equator causes the Hadley cell to expand and drying in places like the Caribbean. But it may still be to early to tell whether the recent Atlantic MDR drying is natural variability or part of CC. You need longer periods of data to make that call. http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/Parts-of-Caribbean-and-Central-6972 http://www.pnas.org/content/103/16/6110.full.pdf At some point one can no longer deny what is plainly in sight right in front of them. It's been 11 years, the AMO has been positive the entire time, and each and every year we still have the same issue with an Atlantic MDR that cannot support tropical cyclone activity during peak season. Hurricane seasons in the future will not be the same as hurricane seasons in the past. There are other signs of Hadley cell expansion elsewhere as well -- the long-term drought in California, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 6 hours ago, bluewave said: I guess the nature of research is they like to see a longer data set of 30 years or more to make a definitive call. But the recent pattern of the drier MDR and the strongest TC activity further north in the Atlantic seems to fit what you would expect to see. But we'll probably need to see if this pattern persists in the future to know for sure. Oh yeah, for sure... science won't confirm it for another decade or more. That makes sense (in terms of needing a larger dataset). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Both the GFS and Euro have the MDR becoming more active in about a week. We'll just have to wait and see how the SAL plays out. Despite being the peak of the season, there's still quite a plume extending from Africa to the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I have been watching the area of disturbed weather that came off Africa earlier in the week and has been crossing the Atlantic. Seems like the convection really increased today. NHC increased chances of development up to 30% this afternoon. Something to watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I have been watching the area of disturbed weather that came off Africa earlier in the week and has been crossing the Atlantic. Seems like the convection really increased today. NHC increased chances of development up to 30% this afternoon. Something to watch.... Is this the wave the GFS shows near Florida at 360 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Is this the wave the GFS shows near Florida at 360 hours? It's the wave that 2 weeks many of the models had developing into a major hurricane. It came off Africa with a lot of African dust and the models really backed down on its developing. With little fanfare or convection it has crossed the Atlantic this past week. Convection has been increasing the past couple of days as it approaches the islands. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 On 9/2/2016 at 2:01 AM, adelphi_sky said: So let me get this straight. For years scientists have been alarming about climate change and the increase in temperatures across the globe. Sea levels rising, disappearing glaciers, warmer sea temps, which would all mean stronger weather activity. All that said, why is the air drying? You'd assume the air would be more dense from evaporating water due to the warmer temps. Or is the Atlantic not affected by these rising temperatures as much as the Pacific or other bodies of water? You hear a lot of hype in the mainstream media or even in some public scientific news outlets. The research on CC and tropical activity has been pretty ambiguous. It will probably increase in some areas and decrease in others. Some evidence suggests an increase in the intensity of the absolute strongest category of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Philip Klotzbach tweeted this today... "0 TC (>=34 kt) formations in Atlantic so far this month. Only once since 2000 has 9/1-9/6 had 0 TC formations (2013)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Cute little MLC just north of the Honduras/Nicaragua border is getting some traction. It's part of the TW that was 92L. Not expecting anything out of it, but if anything can slide under the models radar, something like this could be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 0/0/0 for sept? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 46 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 0/0/0 for sept? We're still 8/4/1 for the season, got some help from that January storm. Can probably get to normal even if September is somehow a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 We have 93L. Mandarin on NHC day 5 outlook. Also, hurricane models somewhat bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: We have 93L. Mandarin on NHC day 5 outlook. Also, hurricane models somewhat bullish. Currently, though, it seems to be getting destroyed by wind shear. It does have a very noticable spin on satellite, but it's got a long way to go before becoming anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 On 9/7/2016 at 6:54 PM, Amped said: We're still 8/4/1 for the season, got some help from that January storm. Can probably get to normal even if September is somehow a train wreck. Several disturbances but none seem to be able to do anything at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Interesting new little invest due south of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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